IN in EU or OUT from EU

[snowleopard]

Immigration seems to be pretty much the biggest issue. If the governments of whatever flavour can't control immigration for outside the EU, how would that change by being outside the EU? If Norway and Switzerland are required to accept free movement as a condition of free trade, how will Britain be any different?

Then there's all those laws we have to obey. Norway and Switzerland have to obey them too. How will we be different? And who imagines the British civil service will just abandon all those regulations? My bet is there will be as many if not more.

 

[BrianH]

Immigration seems to be pretty much the biggest issue. If the governments of whatever flavour can't control immigration for outside the EU, how would that change by being outside the EU? If Norway and Switzerland are required to accept free movement as a condition of free trade, how will Britain be any different?

Then there's all those laws we have to obey. Norway and Switzerland have to obey them too. How will we be different? And who imagines the British civil service will just abandon all those regulations? My bet is there will be as many if not more.

You haven't been paying attention, have you? Or perhaps not frequenting the lounge. According to everyone there, the EU needs the UK trade more than the UK needs the EU, such that all those nasty conditions that Switzerland and Norway have to abide by will magically be waived for the UK so that everyone can still buy their Mercs and BMWs as before and at no extra price and with no tiresome freedom of movement. All because the UK is a much bigger market than Switzerland and Norway.

I did try to point out that: "if that was even hinted at then when the Swiss trade delegation meets next in Brussels they will demand to be informed under which concessionary terms that was granted. They will remind the commission that during the 27 years of negotiations culminating in the final seven packages of 120 trade agreements, no such concession was on the table as, in the commission's adamant and clear statement, "Free movement of persons is a central pillar of our relations and must be part of our overall package of ties". The question will be asked: How can this cornerstone of EU policy, emphasised so frequently and emphatically, not just to Switzerland but also to Norway, be suddenly forgotten ... surely it cannot be on such contemptible and unprincipled grounds as trade volume ... could it?"

No one responded to that so I must have been delusional to have raised it.


.

 

[Bobc]

Because money talks, and it overrules politicians every time.

The likes of Germany and France stand to lose far more by not giving us free trade than they stand to gain. Granted that this is not the case for many of the orher 25 countries, but these are the two that pull the political strings. They are going to have one really tough time trying to get an EU-wide agreement on this, so I have a suspicion that it may conclude in each EU country either setting its own separate agreement, or there being concessions agreed with certain countries. If they can't/won't come to an agreement, this might however lead to first stages of the breakup of the EU. It'll be a big poker game.

 

[ianj99]

Because money talks, and it overrules politicians every time.

The likes of Germany and France stand to lose far more by not giving us free trade than they stand to gain. Granted that this is not the case for many of the orher 25 countries, but these are the two that pull the political strings. They are going to have one really tough time trying to get an EU-wide agreement on this, so I have a suspicion that it may conclude in each EU country either setting its own separate agreement, or there being concessions agreed with certain countries. If they can't/won't come to an agreement, this might however lead to first stages of the breakup of the EU. It'll be a big poker game.

It is the fear of a breakup of the EU on the minds of the political elite that is the $64000 question.

Are we going to be made to suffer to stem anti EU sentiment in other countries, and are Germany & France (&others) willing to accept a reduction in trade with the UK as a result, or are concessions going to be made which will undoubtedly upset Norway & Switzerland?

There is no doubt that if the UK does well outside the EU, even with tariffs, this could be the start of the end for the EU. More likely is a revised treaty: changing one word would make a vast difference - free movement of workers...

When Cameron was trying to get a deal on immigrants benefits, it seemed a sensible solution would be that:
an immigrant's benefits entitlement follow him to another country - ie there would be no advantage in migrating to the UK if the main reason was our more generous benefits. After 4years in full time employment then they could qualify for more benefits.

 

[jordanbasset]

Because money talks, and it overrules politicians every time.

They are going to have one really tough time trying to get an EU-wide agreement on this, so I have a suspicion that it may conclude in each EU country either setting its own separate agreement, or there being concessions agreed with certain countries. If they can't/won't come to an agreement, this might however lead to first stages of the breakup of the EU. It'll be a big poker game.

E.U. member countries are not allowed to contract individual trade deals with countries outside of the E.U., it is all or nothing

 

[Neil_Y]

Having done business in Europe when Carnets were still needed for goods and the costs and paper work was significant. The current set up is cheap, easy and efficient, I can get parts to yachts in Europe quickly with little paperwork. From a commercial perspective the Eu is like supplying within UK borders. Brexit can only make it harder, but then I'll probably shift my business to the Swedish office and focus on the Scandinavian market.

 

[Capt Popeye]

Having done business in Europe when Carnets were still needed for goods and the costs and paper work was significant. The current set up is cheap, easy and efficient, I can get parts to yachts in Europe quickly with little paperwork. From a commercial perspective the Eu is like supplying within UK borders. Brexit can only make it harder, but then I'll probably shift my business to the Swedish office and focus on the Scandinavian market.

Humm, there, for you is no problem then, whichever way our referendum pendulum swings, you are happy to take the results and act on them accordingly. A win win for you then ?

 

[Retired in Crete]

E.U. member countries are not allowed to contract individual trade deals with countries outside of the E.U., it is all or nothing

Among the many things Greece has done to upset their EU masters was the signing of a trade deal with China negotiated in less than 12 months. Something the EU has been unable to do because every member wants their own conditions attached.

John

 

[jordanbasset]

Among the many things Greece has done to upset their EU masters was the signing of a trade deal with China negotiated in less than 12 months. Something the EU has been unable to do because every member wants their own conditions attached.

John

Yes you are right, sloppy wording on my part, it is free trade treaties that individual E.U. Countries cannot negotiate, of course they can trade with other countries

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

Among the many things Greece has done to upset their EU masters was the signing of a trade deal with China negotiated in less than 12 months. Something the EU has been unable to do because every member wants their own conditions attached.

John

All countries can make their own negotiations within the rules of EU which are very very generic and robust; actually, countries are encouraged to do so. Also, Greece has signed similar trading contracts with Russia; same way as France has done.

The real problem for all countries is immigration, however, this issue concerns the over 50's; the young generation do not seem to have this problem.

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

You haven't been paying attention, have you? Or perhaps not frequenting the lounge. According to everyone there, the EU needs the UK trade more than the UK needs the EU, such that all those nasty conditions that Switzerland and Norway have to abide by will magically be waived for the UK so that everyone can still buy their Mercs and BMWs as before and at no extra price and with no tiresome freedom of movement. All because the UK is a much bigger market than Switzerland and Norway.

I did try to point out that: "if that was even hinted at then when the Swiss trade delegation meets next in Brussels they will demand to be informed under which concessionary terms that was granted. They will remind the commission that during the 27 years of negotiations culminating in the final seven packages of 120 trade agreements, no such concession was on the table as, in the commission's adamant and clear statement, "Free movement of persons is a central pillar of our relations and must be part of our overall package of ties". The question will be asked: How can this cornerstone of EU policy, emphasised so frequently and emphatically, not just to Switzerland but also to Norway, be suddenly forgotten ... surely it cannot be on such contemptible and unprincipled grounds as trade volume ... could it?"

No one responded to that so I must have been delusional to have raised it.


.

To believe that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU is absolutely nonsense. They both need each other; and the UK needs the EU much more in order to thrive.

 

[Oldfellah]

It's very depressing that so many of the inners seem to be confusing personalities with real issues. The heroes or villains mentioned earlier in this thread will have zero influence on your lives in a few years time. Vote on the real issues, not whether you do or don't like someone!
I also find it immensely depressing that approximately half of the electorate seem to have no faith in Britain standing on her own two feet. I guess if we stay in we will continue to be run by exactly those sort of people.



Isn't it more pertinent that approximately half the electorate believe that Britain can certainly stand on her own feet - and hold her own in the EEC. It is a reality that whatever the result of Brexit the EEC will continue to have a major influence on our way of life and economy. The benefit of staying in the EEC is that at least we can have some say on the direction it takes. As an outsider we will continue to be dependent on the EEC in many ways but we will have no voice within it.

 

[chanelyacht]

Isn't it more pertinent that approximately half the electorate believe that Britain can certainly stand on her own feet - and hold her own in the EEC. It is a reality that whatever the result of Brexit the EEC will continue to have a major influence on our way of life and economy. The benefit of staying in the EEC is that at least we can have some say on the direction it takes. As an outsider we will continue to be dependent on the EEC in many ways but we will have no voice within it.

It's depressing that people think it's still the EEC, which was a good idea, but which died in 1992.

If it was a trading community without the superstate ambitions and lawmaking ability I'd be all for it.

 

[Bobc]

So now the truth (and the true colours) start to appear.

We've already heard about the potential damage to the German economy, and now Yellen says that Brexit could have a "significant effect" on the US economy.

So, this being the case, this surely shows that Gemany and the US will do what it takes if we exit. The other countries will be told to fall in line.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36463819

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-economy-idUKKCN0Y31PN

 

[Koeketiene]

So, this being the case, this surely shows that Gemany and the US will do what it takes if we exit. The other countries will be told to fall in line.

Yep - that's exactly how international politics works.

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy has warned of the effects of Brexit on Britons living abroad in the EU. Leaving the European Union would mean that British citizens would lose their right to move freely, work and do business, (including marine and yachting industries and those who make a living sailing in the Med) within the largest economic area, the largest market in the world.

 

[Bobc]

Is he suggesting that Spain would no linger allow Brits to retire there, or setup businesses there, or go on holiday there? These are idle threats. Spain needs the money that Brits add to their economy.

and Spain would lose the right to strip our waters of fish, and to sell their cars, wines, and holidays to the UK population of 70 million. Yea right

We may "lose our automatic right" to travel, work, etc. but is doesn't mean that it will all stop. They'll just give us the rights to do those things if they think we'll add to their economy and help their country, just as will be the case when we introduce a points system.

 

[RAI]

Is he suggesting that Spain would no linger allow Brits to retire there, or setup businesses there, or go on holiday there?

There is a subtle difference between a right to take up residence and what non-EU citizens must do to obtain residence legally. Same for setting up a business there.
Holiday makers get three months per year typically, a different case, unlikely to change.

 

[Bobc]

There is a subtle difference between a right to take up residence and what non-EU citizens must do to obtain residence legally. Same for setting up a business there.
Holiday makers get three months per year typically, a different case, unlikely to change.

Yes, I agree. What they want you to think from the statement is that nobody will be able to go to spain anymore, and all the UK citizens living and working there will be thrown out, which is simply not going to happen. It's yet more scaremongering.

 

[RAI]

Yes, I agree. What they want you to think from the statement is that nobody will be able to go to spain anymore, and all the UK citizens living and working there will be thrown out, which is simply not going to happen. It's yet more scaremongering.

Yet the Brexiteers seem to propagate that the number of EU immigrants in the UK will be reduced. That might be scary for them too.