Hurricane Maria

[richardbayle]

Another one about to give the Caribbean a nudge. This time, Guadeloupe is the apparent target and then the already afflicted islands following.
Bit of a bugger this year. Wish us all well.
Might be a little one

 

[Woodlouse]

What happened to Lee?

 

[richardbayle]

Going to degenerate into a tropical depression and pass to the north of the Caraibe

 

[Robin]

Maria computer models

 

[Cheery]

Last week I was watching various webcams and slowly but surely, one by one they all went offline. This one is 40 miles south of the BVI and was a little bit windy. Let's see if it will last Tuesday's predicted storm.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/virginislands/stcroix/?cam=mmstcroix_hd

 

[Mad Pad]

Check out windy.com .Great site

 

[Deleted member 36384]

I am off to Aruba, sitting in the airport now. It's very far south so it very rarely gets hit.

 

[AMCD300]

I am off to Aruba, sitting in the airport now. It's very far south so it very rarely gets hit.

Have a safe trip!

 

[richardbayle]

Due here in Guadeloupe early Tuesday as a Cat 2 according to the Dominica weather forecast and meteo France. Ho hum and lardie dah.

 

[Monique]

Going to degenerate into a tropical depression and pass to the north of the Caraibe

Yep.

 

[Monique]

I am off to Aruba, sitting in the airport now. It's very far south so it very rarely gets hit.

Agree. AUA is safe.... you also have PM

 

[Zing]

So, staying or leaving? Don't be a rabbit in the headlights.

 

[richardbayle]

Staying, no option really. That's the problem with islands, nowhere to run.

 

[Zing]

Staying, no option really. That's the problem with islands, nowhere to run.

Eh? Open ocean to the SW. Lowest winds too.

 

[TQA]

If I was in Guadeloupe I would have been beating feet South at the crack of dawn on Sunday and tucking up in Trois Islet Martinique.

 

[TQA]

It is the people on St Johns I feel sorry for. Maria may well hit the USVI and PR as a cat 3/4. NOT GOOD

FEMA and the other government agencies currently on the ground here are recommending that all non-essential persons evacuate the island ASAP.

 

[Zing]

If I was in Guadeloupe I would have been beating feet South at the crack of dawn on Sunday and tucking up in Trois Islet Martinique.

I don't think that is far enough away, especially as the track is now for mid Dominica. Probably too late to leave Guadeloupe now, but it looks far enough north to miss the worst of it, so the chance of avoiding disaster is higher.

 

[TQA]

I don't think that is far enough away, especially as the track is now for mid Dominica. Probably too late to leave Guadeloupe now, but it looks far enough north to miss the worst of it, so the chance of avoiding disaster is higher.

Do you know Trois Islet. It is at the south side at the head of the large bay with Fort de France. It is very well protected from the west. 45 knot west winds are forecast for that area.

 

[Zing]

Do you know Trois Islet. It is at the south side at the head of the large bay with Fort de France. It is very well protected from the west. 45 knot west winds are forecast for that area.

Yes, I know it. Very sheltered in all directions from the waves, but there's no hiding there from the wind. The point I was making is that whilst is should be OK if the hurricane stays on track, it often doesn't. It could move south a bit and you don't want to take a direct hit. There's no such thing as a hurricane hole.

A much better move would be out at sea 200 nm to the SW (or even to the NE if based in Guadeloupe).

It's too late now anyway, storm force winds are arriving in a few hours in Martinique.

 

[TQA]

Maria is now a Cat 3 and is expected to strengthen to a cat 4 in the next 12 hours.

First landfall on Dominica as a cat3/4. Dominica is an island with a fairly fragile infrastructure and is likely to need significant aid post Maria.

St Croix St John and the East end of Puerto Rico can expect a visit from Maria.