Has somebody broken the Met Office weather model?

[dunedin]

I saw a report a few weeks back that UKMO had made some “improvements” to their weather models.

Around the same time I noticed that the Met Office website, that I used to use as my primary (but not sole) source started forecasting huge gaps between their forecast Wind Soeed and Gust Speed - a typical example being something like 12 wind & 33 gust, as currently forecast for Largs tomorrow (this will change if look at this thread later) - Largs (North Ayrshire) weather

For an entire week of settled weather UKMO forecast gusts of over 30mph when the base wind was less than 12 mph. All the other models GMS, BBC, ECMF had consistent base wind speed, but all had massively less gust speeds - typically 18-22mph. Not once in that week did a gust exceed 24 mph.

For the three weeks since the UKMO model has continued to have a very wide spread - and typically around 10mph more pessimistic gust speed. Yes there has been plenty of wind, but again the other models were much more accurate.
Basically I have decided I need to abandon using UKMO website for wind weather planning.

NB. I use the websites independently and via Predict Wind for comparisons- never using less than 3 separate models for any key route planning decisions (like today).

 

[ylop]

I saw a report a few weeks back that UKMO had made some “improvements” to their weather models.

Around the same time I noticed that the Met Office website, that I used to use as my primary (but not sole) source started forecasting huge gaps between their forecast Wind Soeed and Gust Speed - a typical example being something like 12 wind & 33 gust, as currently forecast for Largs tomorrow (this will change if look at this thread later) - Largs (North Ayrshire) weather

For an entire week of settled weather UKMO forecast gusts of over 30mph when the base wind was less than 12 mph. All the other models GMS, BBC, ECMF had consistent base wind speed, but all had massively less gust speeds - typically 18-22mph. Not once in that week did a gust exceed 24 mph.

For the three weeks since the UKMO model has continued to have a very wide spread - and typically around 10mph more pessimistic gust speed. Yes there has been plenty of wind, but again the other models were much more accurate.
Basically I have decided I need to abandon using UKMO website for wind weather planning.

NB. I use the websites independently and via Predict Wind for comparisons- never using less than 3 separate models for any key route planning decisions (like today).

I’ve been finding UKV to be most accurate this season - it’s predicting (during daylight hrs) at Largs:

AM 12-15 gust 22-26
PM 14-19 gust 30-41
EVE 20-26 gust 34-42

So I’m not sure UKMO are wrong!

 

[Boathook]

I’ve been finding UKV to be most accurate this season - it’s predicting (during daylight hrs) at Largs:

AM 12-15 gust 22-26
PM 14-19 gust 30-41
EVE 20-26 gust 34-42

So I’m not sure UKMO are wrong!

Is UKV the model as used on windy ?
The weather has been very gusty this year or what some call unsettled.

 

[ylop]

Is UKV the model as used on windy ?
The weather has been very gusty this year or what some call unsettled.

Yes windy has about 5 models to pick from on West of Scotland UK-V generally seems good but it does only go a few days out. There is an option (fro Premium users?) to compare models which is a useful clue about how predictable conditions are.

 

[Boathook]

I'm ment to be sailing this Thursday for a few days in the solent and Poole Bay. Weather just seems to be getting worse looking at the various models. I don't want to be out in 25+ knots of wind against a spring tide, especially in the solent. Done it in the past thanks !

 

[Jonny A]

I also noticed this, gusts nowhere near their forecast: 6kts gusting 23... what?

 

[Skylark]

In my (perhaps limited) experience, weather around The Clyde is notoriously difficult to forecast due to the topographical effects.

 

[John_Silver]

Meteo Consult has been spot on, through this unsettled season. And we have enjoyed superb passages, as a result. (Although some long stopovers have been required, to wait for our window). Less than a tank of diesel required from Chatham, down to La Rochelle and back up to Poole. Where we are now waiting out the forecast Bank Holiday blow.
Apologies to @franksingleton , who I know will counsel that all the sites peddle the same models. But, empirically, Meteo Consult seems to add some Gallic ‘secret sauce,’ of true divination!

 

[Stemar]

The Met Office hasn't been so different in the Solent recently. The offering for Cowes today is F4, gusting F7. F4 I like, but F7 gusts wouldn't please Madame - or me, for that matter.

It was similar most of last week - should I put a reef in with those gusts? In the end, there wasn't enough wind to make decent progress on a run against the tide.

 

[Snowgoose-1]

Around the same time I noticed that the Met Office website, that I used to use as my primary (but not sole) source started forecasting huge gaps between their forecast Wind Soeed and Gust Speed - a typical example being something like 12 wind & 33 gust, as currently forecast for Largs tomorrow (this will change if look at this thread later) - Largs (North Ayrshire) weather

Same for the East Coast.
Up until this, I have found the site pretty accurate but have stopped using it.

 

[webcraft]

All models have been predicting many days with the difference between wind and gust over 10kts, sometimes 20kts. I have found this to be accurate on the W Coast of Scotland this year. It is therefore essential to look at the gust forecast and not the steady wind forecast when passage planning. These are not occasional gusts, the wind has been blowing at or near the indicated gust speed for maybe 50% of the time.

So reef early and reef deep !


- W

 

[capnsensible]

In my (perhaps limited) experience, weather around The Clyde is notoriously difficult to forecast due to the topographical effects.

It's either raining or about to rain.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

As we moor (and race) 100m from a weatherfile wind monitor, we get to compare the forecast, the measured and the perceived pretty regularly. The met office have not been far off.

 

[justanothersailboat]

I think it has been really quite gusty AND gust forecasts have sometimes been too pessimistic (ie, high). East Coast. Had a couple of days where it looked like it might be a bit much for my family, but was OK. And a couple where it was, and more where it would have been, fun for me but not for them...

Does it actually make sense to talk about gusts in Beaufort? doesn't seem right to me when each entry on the bft scale has an average speed and a gust speed...

 

[AntarcticPilot]

It's either raining or about to rain.

Or the classic West Coast of England and Scotland forecast: If you can see (mountain of choice) it's going to rain, if you can't it is raining! When I first heard it, it was Helvellyn in the Lake District!

 

[Sandy]

Or the classic West Coast of England and Scotland forecast: If you can see (mountain of choice) it's going to rain, if you can't it is raining! When I first heard it, it was Helvellyn in the Lake District!

Its Lundy on the north Devon coast.

 

[Sgeir]

Some years ago, probably early 2000s, my suggestion that it might be wise to assume gusts of up to two Beaufort scale forces above the forecast caused some derision on Scuttlebutt. That was based upon personal observations, generally sailing in the area between the west of mainland Scotland and the Other Hebrides.

Nothing much has happened to change that view since then, although I'd hazard the opinion that the frequency of F6 to F8 and above has noticeably increased over the last ten years or so.

Unfortunately, the Met Office marine forecasts have proven to be rather too accurate this year, IMHO.

 

[Birdseye]

MMGW ( is it permitted to mention that on here?) did forecast that for the UK it would make the weather wetter and windier rather than much warmer. Seems to have happened .

As for the forecasts, my gut feeling was the same as the OP but I dont have data to support it since my memory is close to non existant more recent than a year.

 

[dunedin]

In my (perhaps limited) experience, weather around The Clyde is notoriously difficult to forecast due to the topographical effects.

I have been sailing the Clyde for quarter of a century, and using various forecast models for well over a decade. Yes you get weird squalls at the Kyles of Bute and off Arran. But generally pretty stable around the main Firth, Bute, Cumbrae etc.
The Met Office one has suddenly gone to much wider speed to gust ratio in the past few weeks. In 10 days I was sailing there (late July early Aug) it was pretty stable weather and never had a gust within 10 mph of the MetnOffice forecast, whereas the other forecast models were pretty accurate.
NB Clearly the wild and squally weather we are having currently on the West is a different matter.

 

[nigel1]

I’ve been finding UKV to be most accurate this season - it’s predicting (during daylight hrs) at Largs:

AM 12-15 gust 22-26
PM 14-19 gust 30-41
EVE 20-26 gust 34-42

So I’m not sure UKMO are wrong!

UKV is produced by UKMO.