Tranona
Well-Known Member
'twas only slightly tongue in cheek. You are right that MOBOs don't go out in the sort of extreme conditions where sailboats founder. However they do play with the big boys in the shipping lanes - without being hit - but all those incidents where there is enough information have been in circumstances when any sensible MOBO is tucked up in a marina. Only two of the foundering incidents took place out of the sight of land - both in the Bay of Biscay. The rest in coastal waters, although in only two cases was proximity to land relevant. I one case (a charter yacht foundering in the Needles Channel) the extreme conditions were accentuated by the topography of the area.
With regard to the other factors, there is very little pattern - and of course there is no meaningful data about the circumstances in which incidents have NOT happened to set into a context. Just try working out an "incident per mile" or "incident per boating episode". Totally meaningless, because all you have is the numerator, which in itself in any time period is extremely small and an incalculable denominator.
One can understand why regulators and particularly politicians have so much difficulty. Most of the problems they have to deal with are "big enough" for conventional statistical analysis to provide a reasonable representation of what is going on.
If it is any consolation, commercial shipping has the same problem and their regulators have been using the same basic analytical approach I have - which is where I got it from.
With regard to the other factors, there is very little pattern - and of course there is no meaningful data about the circumstances in which incidents have NOT happened to set into a context. Just try working out an "incident per mile" or "incident per boating episode". Totally meaningless, because all you have is the numerator, which in itself in any time period is extremely small and an incalculable denominator.
One can understand why regulators and particularly politicians have so much difficulty. Most of the problems they have to deal with are "big enough" for conventional statistical analysis to provide a reasonable representation of what is going on.
If it is any consolation, commercial shipping has the same problem and their regulators have been using the same basic analytical approach I have - which is where I got it from.