Cruising Association and Robin KJ wade into the Schengen 90/180 day problem.

[RupertW]

I'm aware that the term 'tragic' is over-used in lots of contexts (e.g. losing a match of football), but in this case it seems entirely appropriate.

Inevitable more than tragic - the UK government was in no mood to do anything to reciprocate free movement, and that stance had been heavily endorsed in the 2019 General Election.

 

[Tranona]

I'm aware that the term 'tragic' is over-used in lots of contexts (e.g. losing a match of football), but in this case it seems entirely appropriate.

While a minority may consider it tragic, the new restrictions are of no consequence to the majority, and indeed many will welcome the new restrictions on movement from the EU.

 

[doug748]

According to my German relatives, nobody (take that with a pinch of salt) there will take the AstraZeneca vaccine, including medical staff who have publicly turned it down. Don't blame 'em, really, since its demonstrated effectiveness is only 65% or so again boring old COVID and 14% against new exciting South African COVID.

I'm getting my first shot next week and I really hope it's Pfizer. I expect AZ, though.

Keep up:

"Fourth week after first dose, reduced risk of hospitalisation 8 December to 15 February
1.14 million vaccines doses 21% per cent of population
Pfizer, down 84% (n = 650,000)
Oxford-AstraZeneca, down 94% (n = 490,000)
Combined reduction in over 80s"

.

 

[dom]

Keep up:

"Fourth week after first dose, reduced risk of hospitalisation 8 December to 15 February
1.14 million vaccines doses 21% per cent of population
Pfizer, down 84% (n = 650,000)
Oxford-AstraZeneca, down 94% (n = 490,000)
Combined reduction in over 80s"

.

The question is who are we going to believe, Macron or our own ly’in eyes?
?

 

[RobbieW]

While a minority may consider it tragic, the new restrictions are of no consequence to the majority, and indeed many will welcome the new restrictions on movement from the EU.

Thing is, from what I understand currently, the restrictions on travel into the UK from the EU are minimal. Six months as a tourist with instant renewal on exit/reentry. Given we have no way of tracking people once here, the black economy will no doubt have its way at the lower end of the job market.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Keep up:

"Fourth week after first dose, reduced risk of hospitalisation 8 December to 15 February
1.14 million vaccines doses 21% per cent of population
Pfizer, down 84% (n = 650,000)
Oxford-AstraZeneca, down 94% (n = 490,000)
Combined reduction in over 80s"

You'll notice that those figures are for hospitalisation (which the AZ vaccine seems very good at preventing) but not milder cases (for which it's pretty marginal in vaccine terms). There is a very readable analysis of the latest figures by Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, who works in vaccine development, at Oxford AstraZeneca Data, Again

 

[doug748]

You'll notice that those figures are for hospitalisation (which the AZ vaccine seems very good at preventing) but not milder cases (for which it's pretty marginal in vaccine terms). There is a very readable analysis of the latest figures by Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, who works in vaccine development, at Oxford AstraZeneca Data, Again

Nothing in that piece would justify not taking the AZ vaccine, or suggesting it was sub-standard in some way.

Your comment on people refusing to take the Astra Zeneca vaccine was probably made for effect but in our situation is just plain daft:

"Don't blame 'em, really, since its demonstrated effectiveness is only 65% "


.

 

[Tranona]

Thing is, from what I understand currently, the restrictions on travel into the UK from the EU are minimal. Six months as a tourist with instant renewal on exit/reentry. Given we have no way of tracking people once here, the black economy will no doubt have its way at the lower end of the job market.

The clue is in the word "tourist". The UK is hardly a popular destination for real tourism from the EU in the same way as some EU countries are for Brits. However can you imagine the uproar if the Home Secretary tried to bring in Schengen style rules and enforcement into UK law to deal with the black economy issue, and all the other abuses.

 

[RobbieW]

.... However can you imagine the uproar if the Home Secretary tried to bring in Schengen style rules and enforcement into UK law to deal with the black economy issue, and all the other abuses.

Had the UK used the tools it had at its disposal since about 2003 I dont think we'd be having this discussion

 

[JumbleDuck]

Nothing in that piece would justify not taking the AZ vaccine, or suggesting it was sub-standard in some way.

Your comment on people refusing to take the Astra Zeneca vaccine was probably made for effect but in our situation is just plain daft:

"Don't blame 'em, really, since its demonstrated effectiveness is only 65% "

On the evidence I've seen, I'd choose Pfizer or Moderna (mRNA, basically) over AstraZeneca. I'm certainly not going to turn down AZ if that's what they offer me, but I can understand why some people would prefer to have a more effective alternative. If it was available, of course.

 

[JumbleDuck]

The clue is in the word "tourist". The UK is hardly a popular destination for real tourism from the EU in the same way as some EU countries are for Brits.

In 2019, there were 24.83m tourist visits from (what was then) elsewhere in the EU to the UK, while there were 67m tourist visits in the other direction. Many fewer, of course, but I think it's stretching it a little to call almost 25m visits "hardly popular".

 

[Lightwave395]

Here's the French vaccine situation, for those like me trying to get to their boats into France asap:

http://api-esp.piano.io/-c/Xkhn3XcBDDgI0gS1JLo8/1009570989/-1/-1/124788?attrs=0&order=0

 

[Tranona]

In 2019, there were 24.83m tourist visits from (what was then) elsewhere in the EU to the UK, while there were 67m tourist visits in the other direction. Many fewer, of course, but I think it's stretching it a little to call almost 25m visits "hardly popular".

24m out of 400m vs 67 out of 60m. Does not say how the data is collected and remember nearly 5m EU citizens were resident or settled in UK against less than 1m UK citizens in the whole of the EU. Tourism inbound from the UK is just a bit more important to the EU. Remember also that as hinted at earlier our control of movement from the EU and knowledge about its purpose has been historically poor - the whole principle of free movement means that those using it did not have to have a reason.

 

[JumbleDuck]

24m out of 400m vs 67 out of 60m.

Ah, but you also have to consider how small the UK is compared to the EU. If rEU people made out-of-country trip at the same rate as UK people, that would be (400/60) x 67m visits, and if those were distributed by population of destination country we would get (60/460) of them, a total of 58m, so on that basis they visit us about 40% as much as we visit them. And I still don't think 25m visits is trivial.

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

......and remember nearly 5m EU citizens were resident or settled in UK against less than 1m UK citizens in the whole of the EU.

This figure which is widely published in the UK is very misleading. There are millions of UK citizens who have not registered but live in EU countries or spend most of the year in EU and go back and forth working on temporary summer jobs. For example, the official figure of UK citizen who have permanent residence in Greece is approx 25k but the unofficial figures, including temp work and long term tourists are over 200k. So, the figures of UK citizens who "live" in the EU could be well over 6 million people.

 

[SaltIre]

Keep up:

"Fourth week after first dose, reduced risk of hospitalisation 8 December to 15 February
1.14 million vaccines doses 21% per cent of population
Pfizer, down 84% (n = 650,000)
Oxford-AstraZeneca, down 94% (n = 490,000)
Combined reduction in over 80s"

.

It isn't JumbleDuck you have to educate and tell to "keep up". It is Mrs Merkel and her "German MRHA" equivalent.
I believe the AstraZeneca vaccine is approved for those aged over 65 in the EU - but not Germany.

 

[Tranona]

Ah, but you also have to consider how small the UK is compared to the EU. If rEU people made out-of-country trip at the same rate as UK people, that would be (400/60) x 67m visits, and if those were distributed by population of destination country we would get (60/460) of them, a total of 58m, so on that basis they visit us about 40% as much as we visit them. And I still don't think 25m visits is trivial.

But the point is - they don't. When did you see a load of package A320s full of hen parties, or ski parties flying in from the EU (any state) to Luton. Tourist is a catchall category meaning perhaps anything apart from work or business. Figures for entry into the UK come primarily from random consumer surveys at entry point, not from verifiable data such as entry cards.

The fact is that EU citizens mostly come/came to the UK to work and UK citizens go to the EU for holiday, leisure, second homes, retirement - more than once a year on average for every man women and child compared with .0625 the other way. Or over 17 times more frequently.

 

[Tranona]

This figure which is widely published in the UK is very misleading. There are millions of UK citizens who have not registered but live in EU countries or spend most of the year in EU and go back and forth working on temporary summer jobs. For example, the official figure of UK citizen who have permanent residence in Greece is approx 25k but the unofficial figures, including temp work and long term tourists are over 200k. So, the figures of UK citizens who "live" in the EU could be well over 6 million people.

That is really stretching credibility. The missing 5 million or so that are in your new category can no longer live in that way - they have to either apply for residence or get a work visa - or come back to the UK. As I said in reply to JD, a lot of this is guesswork because of freedom of movement, whereas the figure for EU citizens in the UK is fairly accurate as it is based on the number who have already been granted residence (about 3.5 million) and those who are eligible to apply.

 

[mjcoon]

Ah, but you also have to consider how small the UK is compared to the EU. If rEU people made out-of-country trip at the same rate as UK people, that would be (400/60) x 67m visits, and if those were distributed by population of destination country we would get (60/460) of them, a total of 58m, so on that basis they visit us about 40% as much as we visit them. And I still don't think 25m visits is trivial.

Its a strange idea that tourists could be distributed based on the population of the visited country (if that is really what you were suggesting). Maybe an inverse distribution would be better - more room?

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

The fact is that EU citizens mostly come/came to the UK to work and UK citizens go to the EU for holiday, leisure, second homes, retirement - more than once a year on average for every man women and child compared with .0625 the other way. Or over 17 times more frequently.

This is a bit incorrect, Brits go to EU for work much more than people think, they also go for holidays as you say but they stay behind for many months working unofficially. Also, lets no forget that the average Brit is not willing to learn the foreign/local languages so in the longer term they have to come back as they find it difficult to obtain/keep working abroad. Just to divert slightly, why is it that Brits do not want to classify themselves as immigrants or migrant when they go to work or move overseas but they want to describe themselves as ex-pats; the majority of which don't even understand the word "ex-pat". A Romanian coming here is an immigrant, a Brit going to Romania is an ex-pat; for the sake of this thread they both need to enjoy sailing.