Cruise ships.

[Mudisox]

Why do the empty cruise ships keep on moving around.?
AIS shows them often on the move, -why not stay in one place, isTorbay better than say Weymouth, or the lee of Cherbourg peninsular?

 

[Sandy]

Systems need to be run.

Its quite a treat seeing the ships off the Devon coast.

 

[Tranona]

Partly regulations that limit the amount of time they can stay in one place and partly because they need to dock periodically to provision.

 

[Keith 66]

Seems like a lot of them have gone or going to the scrapyard.

 

[Neeves]

Seems like a lot of them have gone or going to the scrapyard.

That is true and others are being sold into Asia.

There are a host of people, hotel staff and crew, including their cadets who wanted a career at sea - with effectively - no jobs and no prospect of jobs for unknown years. It is difficult to see how cruise lines will survive - they are bleeding money with no end in sight. The same goes for budget airlines.

 

[Gary Fox]

I won't miss them, but I'm extremely sorry for the hundreds of thousands of crew being laid off. All their endeavour, studying, skill and experience down the pan.

 

[newtothis]

That is true and others are being sold into Asia.

There are a host of people, hotel staff and crew, including their cadets who wanted a career at sea - with effectively - no jobs and no prospect of jobs for unknown years. It is difficult to see how cruise lines will survive - they are bleeding money with no end in sight. The same goes for budget airlines.

They'll be back. Maybe not the same companies, but thar's money to be made in them there floating petri dishes (c$150bn in the Before Times). Even if the majors go bust, there will be someone with a dollar and a dream waiting to pick up cheap tonnage and hire a Welsh comedian to charm others out of their hard-earned.

I can think of at least three new cruiseships that have come out of the yards in the past few months, and clearing out some of the older bids will make it easier for the survivors to thrive.

As for the crew, other than the hotel staff, they can go work on any other ships in the meantime.

 

[Gary Fox]

....As for the crew, other than the hotel staff, they can go work on any other ships in the meantime.

Blimey. Just in the USA, for example about 200,000 people can either find 'other ships', or kick rocks can they, in your opinion?
Nice.

 

[newtothis]

Blimey. Just in the USA, for example about 200,000 people can either find 'other ships', or kick rocks can they, in your opinion?
Nice.

Cripes, don't hurt yourself when you dismount. I'm just pointing out that the skills the seafarers have are transferable. With only about 300 cruise ships in operation, that is a lot fewer than 200,000 worldwide.

 

[Neeves]

Blimey. Just in the USA, for example about 200,000 people can either find 'other ships', or kick rocks can they, in your opinion?
Nice.

My understanding of 'other' ships is that they have minimalistic crew.

The new ships being launched now are vessels planned and effective built before the nightmare of Covid appeared over the horizon and Covid or anything with the impact of Covid was never included as part of any executive strategic review (in any industry). The shipyards that launched are another segment of industry looking for work and another few thousand skilled artisans with no prospect of employment.

The cruise industry cannot return to 'strength' until such time as enough of the world's population is vaccinated - and that is currently a dream. We don't have enough vaccine and we don't even know if we will need an annual booster nor if having been vaccinated we can be a carrier. The new normal will be with us for a long time.

ScoMo (our PM who don't know him) is taking all the flak for having the temerity to suggest that there should be an independent and international investigation of the background to Covid. Hundreds of thousand have died and more hundreds of thousand will die. Hundreds of thousand have lost their jobs and for many, Pilots, Captains - losing one's job was simply unthinkable. The financial loss, think of all that money put up to buy the aircraft and then lease them, is simply growing and growing. Its not little Oz that should have been looking for answers but the UN - this is going to impact for a few generations. Our eldest granddaughter spent her first year at Medical School in her bedroom in front of a screen, no parties, no dances, no labs - at this rate we are going to have a generation of Doctors who have not seen a body! (I exaggerate - presumably it will change). She, of course thinks this is normal now......

The winners currently are makers of Vaccines......, paper makers (face masks and wipes)

But, getting back to a marine focus, I do feel for the cadets (and others) who chose a career at sea. I feel for the kids who are unable to go to school.......

Those cruise ships off Weymouth are simply a physical example, a constant reminder (if any was needed) of a long drawn out disaster. Until we find out where and why - we could have another but different one next year (previously SARS, Ebola - its all possible).

But today is Australia Day and with Burns Night last night - 2 days of celebration. Its brilliant sun shine, stinking hot - and we are Covid free.

Jonathan

Cruise ships seem to have as many crew as passengers, 2,000 passengers today is a small ship. 300 ships at 2,000 crew each (many of which are hotel staff) is 300,000 crew, maybe the average is smaller than 2,000 passengers - 200,000 seems a decent number. The hotel staff cannot get jobs in terrestrial hotels - because they too are on their knees. The skills of seafarers can be transferred, the motor vehicle industry, or mining in the UK for example......?

The only growth industries seem to be hospitals and mortuaries.

I don't like to be critical, nor racist, but many senior crew on cruise ships Hotel or Marine side are Italian, Portuguese etc - many growth industries there.? Exactly where does a guy who worked in the laundry use his skills in Sri Lanka......how does a Welsh comedian earn a crust? Most Welsh comedians only took a job on a cruise ship because they could not get a job in Cardiff.....so how is it different now. That Sri Lankan laundry man never wanted to spend his life on a cruise ship - he wanted to be at home with his wife and kids - now he has that dream - but no job, no money to pay for his kids to go to school.

 

[Gary Fox]

Cripes, don't hurt yourself when you dismount. I'm just pointing out that the skills the seafarers have are transferable. With only about 300 cruise ships in operation, that is a lot fewer than 200,000 worldwide.

Google is your enemy

 

[Neeves]

I do like to see data

The total excludes the shore based staff that will exist in every port the cruise ship enters and the additional 'independent' employees catering for the shore excursions, tour guides, but drivers and the stores replenishment, fruit and veg - much of which will come from local farms or fishermen, alcohol etc. All the ports (though many complain of the negative impact of the cruise ships) will have lost port and pilot fees. No-one in their wildest nightmares thought anything like this could even happen - totally outside imagination.

Not cruise ships - b ut here Sydney Airport international terminal is simply mothballed - no coffee shops, no bars, no duty free - just a lot of unemployment with no obvious future.

 

[Kukri]

Posted to show that I used to know a bit about the smaller size end of the business. That’s Milford Sound, in New Zealand. She was 440 lowers - a tiddler - but she had the usual concessions, a dance troupe, etc

Now, the people who won’t be looking for other jobs are the deck and engine staff because you never put a cruise ship, or a dive support ship, into cold lay up. Their systems are far too complicated and the cost of putting right what goes wrong when you switch everything off is not to be thought about. Much cheaper to keep everything running and improve the shining hour with some refurbishments.

There are two huge corporations who dominate the cruise business. When I last looked Carnival* had 52% of the global market, and Royal Caribbean were not far behind. Star Cruises are Genting. Disney, Olsen and Windstar are parts of conglomerates. Nobody is going bust.

The cruise companies deserve credit for getting their hotel staff home (by sea!) using their ships for the purpose.

* Carnival, P&O, Princess, Cunard, Seabourn, Costa, Holland America and I forget who else.

 

[PhillM]

A colleague of mine researches into the cruise industry. Now I do forget the actual figures she stated, so don't shoot them down but ... a ship usually sails with spare capacity. It can still make money at, say 85% full. With the postponement of 2 years of cruises, it means that the ships can now be booked to full capacity, just to keep up with the pre-sold demand. That is a lot more income with little or no additional cost. i.e. much more profitable. She has been talking to some senior people in the industry and they are pretty confident about the future, even if it takes another year or so to arrive. Remember, this industry uses a lot longer timeframe than many others to calculate ROI.

 

[Neeves]

A colleague of mine researches into the cruise industry. Now I do forget the actual figures she stated, so don't shoot them down but ... a ship usually sails with spare capacity. It can still make money at, say 85% full. With the postponement of 2 years of cruises, it means that the ships can now be booked to full capacity, just to keep up with the pre-sold demand. That is a lot more income with little or no additional cost. i.e. much more profitable. She has been talking to some senior people in the industry and they are pretty confident about the future, even if it takes another year or so to arrive. Remember, this industry uses a lot longer timeframe than many others to calculate ROI.

After the Diamond and Ruby Princess (and a couple of others) who is going to sail on a fully booked cruise ship and who is going to sail on a cruise ship without a significant discount? Most of the cruise companies were forced to cancel cruises and returned all monies paid for the cancelled cruises and have offered huge credits.

Most of the early cruises when they re-start are not going to make any money at all.

Cruises originating in Australia or calling into Australia stopped mid, last, year, or thereabouts, and our borders are not scheduled to open up till the end of this year (and with the roll out of vaccine, delays that are developing and the uncertainty of efficacy) that may go back further. We had a bubble with NZ they had another Covid out break a few days ago (the first in 2 months) the bubble was closed and anyone returning has to go into 15 days quarantine (A$3,000). NZ and Oz have supressed Covid but one outbreak and the repercussions for the individual are immense. Unless something really significant changes and the vaccines ARE the hoped for silver bullet then think of travel in 12 months time - but it might not be 2 or 3 years.

Australia is hardly world centre - so I only speak from an Oz perspective.

We are fine, thank you very much, its anyone outside Oz/NZ that are the issue - unless something drastic and positive happens we have no where to go and you (or they) will only come here - if you accept that 15 day quarantine and a negative Covid test.

If you could would you really want a holiday now in Florida, or Hawaii, would you plan one for this year? . If you cannot get a negative Covid report, I doubt you will get on a plane and I shudder to think how much it might cost if you need any medical support (our $3,000 15 day quarantine will seem cheap).

But someone thinks the industry has a real future as Princess sold 2 or 3 ships recently, at least one with 2,000 pax and a small one with 650 pax (though even 2,000 is small today.

Another cruise company Kukri did not mention MSC - they seem quite big as well.

It would be nice to think the worst is over - but we have a really long way to go.

Jonathan

 

[Capt Popeye]

Systems need to be run.

Its quite a treat seeing the ships off the Devon coast.

Yes them Cruise Ships have become quite an attraction down here in South Devon; before the local 'tripper boats' laid up for the end of Season they had a flurry of trips out to seee them Cruise Ship close up ; so many peoples that we meet down here would really love to have a tour of them before they depart; but all said and done when will that happen; from personal experience on board them Ships they 'take on' general staff from foreign countries usually it would appear they take (or took ?) on enough from one country to make a real negative difference that Countries ecconomy;
Cruise Ships though have dealt with Illnesses in the past, with very adequate procedures allready in place to minimise the effect on the Cruise and Passngers, that tummy bug that appeared too often and the Quarantine rules that they have on board are really quite effective at containment

Anyaways hopefulIy posting a Photo (not mine credit to a Debbie Lannon) showing Teignmouth Sea Front with a few Cruise Ships in the bay a distance off; enjoy ; photo taken last week mid morning times; after taking this Picture Debbie went swimming, so how is that for Winter in Devon ?

 

[38mess]

A friend of mine is a deck officer onboard a huge cruise ship, at the moment they are in drydock in Singapore having a major refit. So some optimism there I think.

 

[Adios]

The cruise industry cannot return to 'strength' until such time as enough of the world's population is vaccinated

Or covid fades into the background with other seasonal viruses. So far we're seeing it is the exact same pattern as the 2009-11 swine flu. Appeared in spring, back the next winter flu season and back but less the one after and then it faded into insignificance. Even without vaccines.

They may well as they have been with all aspects of this do it different and lock down because they find a "case" after mass testing and never allow it to be known that its no longer deadlier than other seasonal viruses by counting "mentioned on the death certificate" in the way they used to only rank underlying cause. But saving that I expect the demand for cruising will be mostly back in a couple of years.

 

[trevbouy]

The cruise ships in Torbay are a lovely sight I think. There is a dedicated group on Facebook where the crew talk to locals and post operational videos of interest.

Some of them move off to 'excercise' the systems and return to Southampton to fuel up. They then return. If you monitor the ais website you can track them.

One of the pics I took just as a heavy rain showered cleared.

 

[newtothis]

Google is your enemyView attachment 107810

Reading my original post is your enemy... "As for the crew, other than the hotel staff, they can go work on any other ships in the meantime. "
There are not 223k seafarers working on cruiseships.