Can we come out to play ?

[Richard10002]

I just wrote it. If you mean, can I find a source saying that it's only a possibility, no, more-or-less by definition.

The WHO scientific briefing on transmission says "Therefore, transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g., stethoscope or thermometer)." but it's not at all clear whether that applies to supermarket shopping trolleys and so on. There certainly doesn't seem to be any suggestion that it spreads directly through skin contact, though picking your nose after shaking hands with an infected person who has just sneezed onto their hand is not a good idea at all.

Of course absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and a degree of caution is sensible, but so is a degree of realism.

The bit that you quote suggests precisely, albeit not expressly, that supermarket trolleys are exactly the kind of thing that can transmit the virus. You don't get it directly by touching the trolley, you get it on your skin. If you then touch your nose, mouth, eyes, before washing your hands, or sanitising them, the virus is in.

There is some discussion as to how long the virus can live on a variety of surfaces, but it seems to be measured in hours and days, and not in minutes and seconds.

Given that the trolley that I return with virus on the handle is the next one to be taken by the next customer, there is not going to be hours between consecutive uses.

 

[pcatterall]

Your Skin for a bit of quiz knowledge , is the biggest organ in your body, and has many ways to avoid virus infiltration, it is impossible for a Corona virus to enter via the skin , unless there is an open wound, the virus is spread via the Mucous membranes of the mouth , eyes , nose,
you either breath in droplets of vapour from an infected person , hence why 2 metres is recommended
Or you have contact with the virus on a surface and then the virus enters via you putting you fingers in your mouth, rubbing your eye's, picking you nose
Even at this level it is not known how much virus you will pick up,
one would suspect but not proven that most people got infected by being close proximity to those with the virus already and taking in their droplets, hence London seeing the biggest spike but also the biggest fall as social distancing went into action, the tube , the theatre the bars etc, closing

The article I read was not suggesting that the virus infects through the skin. But, in terms of transmitting, is a good host.

 

[jordanbasset]

Where have you seen the figures for normal flu? I've been wondering how they have been comparing to the 17,000 a year average.

Report here
National flu report summary: 20 February 2020 (week 8)
Data up to week 7 (ending 16 February 2020) shows:
during week 7, influenza activity decreased or remained stable across all indicators
the impact of flu on healthcare services is below baseline levels for hospitalisations and for ICU/HDU influenza admissions...
the overall weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) rate was 8.4 per 100,000 registered population in participating GP practices for England and is below baseline threshold levels, a decrease from 9.8 per 100,000 in the previous week

• hospitalisation rate observed was below baseline levels, with a rate of 0.96 per 100,000 in week 7 compared to 0.95 per 100,000 trust catchment population in the previous week, for England (17 NHS Trusts)
• ICU and HDU admission rate observed was below baseline impact levels, with a rate of 0.07 per 100,000 in week 7 compared to 0.06 per 100,000 trust catchment population in the previous week, for England (138 out of 143 NHS Trusts)

 

[JumbleDuck]

We will actually never know what the numbers would have been had no steps been taken.

We can compare the original model's prediction of what would happen with this lockdown against what actually did, though, and that is not looking too good for the UCL groups.

We don't get to run this again to see what would have happened, and we didn't get to have a "control group". .

Brazil's president seems determined to provide the world with a control group. That's not great for his people.

 

[JumbleDuck]

The bit that you quote suggests precisely, albeit not expressly, that supermarket trolleys are exactly the kind of thing that can transmit the virus. You don't get it directly by touching the trolley, you get it on your skin. If you then touch your nose, mouth, eyes, before washing your hands, or sanitising them, the virus is in.

In theory they can, but as I understand it there is no hard evidence that they actually do, to any significant extent. Precaution is still sensible, and people like having things to do because it makes them feel less out-of-control. Hence masks, sanitised trolley handles and so one. They may not do any good, but they probably won't do much harm.

 

[Beneteau381]

R

I'm not sure that any of us in rural areas (SW Scotland has about 1/4 of Glasgow's deaths per million) should be confident about this. We really have no idea whatsoever how many cases there are in Galloway, Glasgow, Manchester or North Wales because we have no programme of random testing. COVID-19 is probably rampant where we both live.

Death rates vary a bit from the national average of about 1 per 2000.

Gwynedd: 1 death per 4018
Denbighshire: 1 death per 3417
Flintshire: 1 death per 2838
Manchester: 1 death per 2645
Cheshire West and Chester: 1 death per 2118
Cheshire East: 1 death per 1829
Liverpool: 1 death per 1254

Mortality is very strongly linked to poverty, so even with the same infection levels, more people are likely to die in the relatively poorer cities than in the relatively wealthy countryside. North Wales is doing a bit better than its neighbours, but not really enough to build the barricades yet. You and we will need those big city folks and their fancy hospitals in due courses.

RHYL in Denbighshire was allegedly the most deprived area in Wales, I got fed up with hearing it off our socialist members. They sucked in public money like there was no tomorrow.

 

[Graham376]

RHYL in Denbighshire was allegedly the most deprived area in Wales, I got fed up with hearing it off our socialist members. They sucked in public money like there was no tomorrow.

Unless I'm mistaken, most of the North Wales Corona cases have been in Flintshire, the largest county population and bordering on Cheshire and Wirral which have much higher rates. Last I heard, Denby, Conwy, Gwynedd and Anglesey are doing much better. Not sure about Wrexham.

 

[Richard10002]

In theory they can, but as I understand it there is no hard evidence that they actually do, to any significant extent. Precaution is still sensible, and people like having things to do because it makes them feel less out-of-control. Hence masks, sanitised trolley handles and so one. They may not do any good, but they probably won't do much harm.

I don't see how there could be hard evidence. Once you are infected with the virus, there will almost certainly have been a myriad of ways in which you might have received it. I don't see how the actual point of infection could be either identified, or possible points of infection ruled out?

 

[thinwater]

IMO hard hats (industry example--not COVID) and masks help if they remind people about safe practices. Many job sites require hard hats because they are a visible reminder, not because there is anything overhead.

Both can be bad if they make you feel bullet proof and you do dumb stuff. In the early days of climbing helmets I sometimes felt the illusion of safety provided by a helmet got some people hurt. Now they are so common this effect is probably gone.

In this case, however, it is more like the surgeon's masks of old. They are to keep you from spitting on other people or the trolley. It's not about you, it's about others.

 

[25931]

IMO hard hats (industry example--not COVID) and masks help if they remind people about safe practices. Many job sites require hard hats because they are a visible reminder, not because there is anything overhead.

Both can be bad if they make you feel bullet proof and you do dumb stuff. In the early days of climbing helmets I sometimes felt the illusion of safety provided by a helmet got some people hurt. Now they are so common this effect is probably gone.

In this case, however, it is more like the surgeon's masks of old. They are to keep you from spitting on other people or the trolley. It's not about you, it's about others.

Safety measures have always produced a false sense of security in some, but it has always been impossible to quantify. I remember the arguments about crash helmets and also about seat belts.

 

[RJJ]

Unless they happen to be sneezing or coughing at the time.

Right so let's just not do that.

Or, because sneezing into your sleeve, and stepping away from people coughing, is so terribly difficult, let's just chuck another 100bn on the national debt and ruin millions of livelihoods.

 

[stu9000]

My friends business is getting a lot of orders from Golf clubs who are clearly getting ready to reopen, albeit with some social distancing measures in place. Should this prove true I will be slipping the mooring line.

 

[Laser310]

I think that the only really strong evidence is the overall death rate, which is about twice the norm for this time of year. And as things like road casualties are probably down, the death rate may be higher.

well, no matter what the numbers are, we can be sure that some of the people who have died would have died anyway over, say, the next 12 months. This is because many of the people who have died are either quite old, or have other serious health issues..

Thus while we may have a greater than normal overall mortality rate now.., there is good chance we will have a lower than normal overall mortality rate some months from now, as the people who would have died then are already dead. In other words, a blip up, followed by a blip down.

I am not predicting that the numbers will work out even.., just that there will be some measure of "correction" , for lack of a better word.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Unless I'm mistaken, most of the North Wales Corona cases have been in Flintshire, the largest county population and bordering on Cheshire and Wirral which have much higher rates. Last I heard, Denby, Conwy, Gwynedd and Anglesey are doing much better. Not sure about Wrexham.

Adding to the figures I looked up yesterday:

Anglesey: 1 death per 23,000
Conwy: 1 death per 5327
Gwynedd: 1 death per 4018
Denbighshire: 1 death per 3417
Flintshire: 1 death per 2838

So it does look as if things get steadily worse as you go west along the coast. That doesn't mean those places are safe, any more than Dumfries and Galloway is safe, just that things are happening more slowly. We shall see.

 

[JumbleDuck]

RHYL in Denbighshire was allegedly the most deprived area in Wales, I got fed up with hearing it off our socialist members. They sucked in public money like there was no tomorrow.

I did a show in Rhyl ten years ago as part of a national tour, and it was without doubt the poorest-feeling place we ever went to.An awful lot of mobility scooters, but I think that was visitors rather than residents - it's about the cheapest place you can go for a holiday from Manchester/Liverpool and poor health correlates very strongly with poverty.

 

[Graham376]

I did a show in Rhyl ten years ago as part of a national tour, and it was without doubt the poorest-feeling place we ever went to.An awful lot of mobility scooters, but I think that was visitors rather than residents - it's about the cheapest place you can go for a holiday from Manchester/Liverpool and poor health correlates very strongly with poverty.

Many of them would have been residents on scooters. Since the demise of UK holidays, many of the former holiday B & Bs have been converted into social security accommodation and landlords were advertising in cities - "come spend your disability by the sea". East end of Colwyn Bay is much the same, also with lots of morbidly obese riding around on scooters in the shopping centre.

 

[William_H]

Here in West Oz we have I believe done really well with this virus. Borders were shut down, indeed road blocks divided the state into 6 regions. Most infections were from cruise ships and people already in quarantine. Went for 8 days with no new infections despite huge testing and one new case yesterday of a woman already in quarantine from OS travel. Schools have been open for 2 weeks with 90% attendance. Some will be aware of our beautiful Rottnest Island holiday resort and boating centre which was closed down and made into a quarantine place for people coming from over seas or inter state. 2 weeks locked down in paradise. But still locked inside the houses.
Anyway our club shut down all hospitality and all racing activity. However the marina remained open and many people have been doing there single handed sailing. Our premier (state government chief) is going to hopefully ease restrictions perhaps to open resturaunts and bars if only to a limited degree toomorrow. That might get the club back into winter competition. I found it convenient (or not) to haul boat home about 1 month early for winter refit but I still miss the camaraderie of the racing folk indeed I usually do a lot of the winter race officer stuff.
Any way a huge sympathy for all my friends in UK and I certainly hope you can get into sailing and boating soon and especially if you do so to get some nice weather. good luck ol'will

 

[25931]

Right so let's just not do that.

Or, because sneezing into your sleeve, and stepping away from people coughing, is so terribly difficult, let's just chuck another 100bn on the national debt and ruin millions of livelihoods.

 

[25931]

Bot actions can give a false sense of seurity but neither gives immunity.

 

[longjohnsilver]

well, no matter what the numbers are, we can be sure that some of the people who have died would have died anyway over, say, the next 12 months. This is because many of the people who have died are either quite old, or have other serious health issues..

Thus while we may have a greater than normal overall mortality rate now.., there is good chance we will have a lower than normal overall mortality rate some months from now, as the people who would have died then are already dead. In other words, a blip up, followed by a blip down.

I am not predicting that the numbers will work out even.., just that there will be some measure of "correction" , for lack of a better word.

Can't fault your logic.