JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
That's a different issue. I was responding to "how can they differentiate between boats and caravans along with second homes" and pointing out that they don't need to, because the same restrictions could apply to all.
Can we come out to play ?
- Thread starter CPD
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[70521]
Well-Known Member
Really? I don't see any sign of a Zombie apocalypse in the cities.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
We country folk have some strange ideas about the big cities, where the streets are lined with corpses and horseless carriages abound.
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
And how does that help those who live more than a reasonable return journey awat?
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
It's not intended to help them. It's intended to put second homes, caravans and boats in a common framework, that's all. I really can't see any reason why people should be allowed to travel to stay in a boat but not in a caravan.
Graham376
Well-Known Member
If you compare the number of cases in North Wales to those in our catchment area - Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cheshire, etc., There's a hell of a difference of virus spread. If you have time, look at the North Wales coast and about a mile inland on Google Earth and see just how many caravans are between Conwy and the Dee estuary, several thousand. of the things, populated by folks from cities. It may sound selfish but those of us in such areas don't want visitors travelling here.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure that any of us in rural areas (SW Scotland has about 1/4 of Glasgow's deaths per million) should be confident about this. We really have no idea whatsoever how many cases there are in Galloway, Glasgow, Manchester or North Wales because we have no programme of random testing. COVID-19 is probably rampant where we both live.
Death rates vary a bit from the national average of about 1 per 2000.
Gwynedd: 1 death per 4018
Denbighshire: 1 death per 3417
Flintshire: 1 death per 2838
Manchester: 1 death per 2645
Cheshire West and Chester: 1 death per 2118
Cheshire East: 1 death per 1829
Liverpool: 1 death per 1254
Mortality is very strongly linked to poverty, so even with the same infection levels, more people are likely to die in the relatively poorer cities than in the relatively wealthy countryside. North Wales is doing a bit better than its neighbours, but not really enough to build the barricades yet. You and we will need those big city folks and their fancy hospitals in due courses.
Graham376
Well-Known Member
Your figures of course don't reflect population density. On the Welsh news just now, they said there have been a total of 161 deaths in the whole of North Wales whereas there have been (as of last Sunday) 3,071 in Greater Manchester alone. Quite obviously, those coming from Manchester are far more likely to have been in contact with infected people than those living locally. Devon & Cornwall, the Lake & Peak Districts all have the same worries as I would assume the inhabitants of South Coast marina villages do, with the threat of invasion from towns and cities. I hope travel outside people's local area will remain restricted until the number of infections drop a lot further.
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[70521]
Well-Known Member
The problem is the government are not being really "transparent" what are the other things that people are dying from, what are their ages and is it contagious? All we are told about is CV-19.
Iliade
Well-Known Member
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
True, but they do reflect population.
North Wales (Anglesey, Gwynedd, Denbighshire, Flintshire) has a total population of around 450,000, so that's 1 death per 2,700 inhabitants. For Britain as a whole it's 1 death per 2,200 so you are only doing a little bit better than the average - we're on 1 per 3,700 here.
Greater Manchester's 1 per 1,000 is therefore unusually high and may reflect higher infection rates, greater poverty, poorer treatment, more testing or even lots of people travelling in from surrounding areas, like North Wales, for unsuccessful treatment.
Doesn't follow at all, I'm afraid. It could be true, but it isn't obvious at all. If it weren't for Anglesey the North Wales death rate would be significantly above the national average.
I don't think talk of "invasions" is helpful. We really are all in this together, and trying to claim special status for some areas just because they are doing a bit better for the moment won't do anything useful.
On the contrary, they should remain until a lot more people have been infected! But really we're saying the same thing. Don't travel around much, and that means "Don't go from Rhyl to Bangor" just as much as it means "Don't go from Stockport to Caernarfon.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
The real problem is that nobody knows who is dying "with" CV-19 and who is dying "of" CV-19. And of those dying "of" it, nobody knows - yet - how many would have died anyway in the next weeks or month. We probably won't know for years with any reasonable accuracy how many years of life were lost to this.
Graham376
Well-Known Member
We don't go anywhere except to local supermarket on a Thursday, wife shops for us, I shop for two other (more) aged households.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
I haven't left the house (and garden) since Tuesday last week. My other half went shopping on Monday. Socially distanced, that's us. In my case, even more than usual.
Old Harry
Well-Known Member
The Belgians have done the same 2 days ago.
But we were 3 weeks behind the EU curve, with the most corpses ( sorry "Passed Away" )
FlyingGoose
Well-Known Member
This talk of not in my area we do not want you is sickening,
People never complain when the tourists come and spend their money , in their own country I may add
Lets see if these tourists hot spots can handle next year as well without the tourists , then it will be a pleading for them to come
If we are doing the old not in my back yard stuff, My street is now declared the Free State of Laburnum and all enter must have a green pass ,
People never complain when the tourists come and spend their money , in their own country I may add
Lets see if these tourists hot spots can handle next year as well without the tourists , then it will be a pleading for them to come
If we are doing the old not in my back yard stuff, My street is now declared the Free State of Laburnum and all enter must have a green pass ,
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
I think that the only really strong evidence is the overall death rate, which is about twice the norm for this time of year. And as things like road casualties are probably down, the death rate may be higher.
Rappey
Well-Known Member
I rowed out to a boat today to do a little job and without looking saw at least 10 other dingys tied to the back of boats !
Old Harry
Well-Known Member
My nxt door neighbours are in & out like a fiddlers elbow
RJJ
Well-Known Member
Don't let's divide. Let's make common cause where possible.
Please do read the law. Caravans etc are grouped with hostels, b and bs etc as "accommodation" with the accompanying rationale of "prolonged close social contact". That rationale is scientifically backed up: subject to infection rate in a given area, and if people wash hands and don't sneeze at each other, ONLY prolonged social contact spreads infection.
Marinas were hastily grouped with accommodation under guidance, which has no legal weight.
Rather than bickering about which particular group is in or not in the law (and marinas are not) let's please seek for restrictions to be applied based on science. If any given site or activity can remove "prolonged close social contact", it must be opened up immediately.
In context of sailing (and golf, canoeing, climbing, outdoor tennis and whatever else) it seems really easy. Don't use the bar or changing rooms. Disinfect the gate, the trolley, the tap. Don't sneeze at each other. Go boating.
I am sharing info at the lockdown sceptics thread in the Covid-19 forum.
Other threads that may be of interest
