Whither the weather?

[zoidberg]

There's suggestion - putting it mildly - that the coming ENSO/El NIno period will likely be for three years - and unusually strong...

After three years of La Niña in the South Pacific supressing the effects of global warming, the ENSO system is now turning towards El Niño conditions, which do the exact opposite. According to the worlds meteorological agencies, this El Niño is shaping up to become a potential record breaker – and not in a good way.

and

As I understand it, that's a recipe for lots more atmospheric heating - big cyclones in the Pacific and hurricanes in the Atlantic, and more of them. Here on the western fringes of Europe, that translates into lots more rainfall and stormy conditions for us small boat sailors.

Have I got that right?

What do our weather-forecasty gurus have to say about this? Do we need to double up on our mooring lines? Be a lot more wary about our 'Crossing Biscay' plans?
Reef the geraniums....?

.

 

[Wansworth]

Will it be the push the world needs to really wake up to global warming?

 

[Frank Holden]

Will it be worse than the 'Federation Drought' in Australia?

A few months ago in an Australian 'newspaper'.. 'Survey shows 10% of Australians say they don't expect to be affected by climate change!!!!'

I imagine that was the 10% over the age of 75... and smokers over the age of 60.

Edit, I'll save you the trouble of looking it up Federation Drought - Wikipedia

 

[LittleSister]

Will it be worse than the 'Federation Drought' in Australia?

A few months ago in an Australian 'newspaper'.. 'Survey shows 10% of Australians say they don't expect to be affected by climate change!!!!'

I imagine that was the 10% over the age of 75... and smokers over the age of 60.

Edit, I'll save you the trouble of looking it up Federation Drought - Wikipedia

FRED DRIFT ALERT!
I read something a few years back about an Australian woman of 102 who put her longevity down to smoking. She reckoned the smoke killed off any bugs she got. She died before her 103rd birthday, though, when she lit the wrong end of a filter-tip cigarette, and then coughed and choked to death as a result. (Not a bad way to go, perhaps, when you consider the alternatives?) Which all goes to prove something or other.

 

[Frank Holden]

FRED DRIFT ALERT!
I read something a few years back about an Australian woman of 102 who put her longevity down to smoking. She reckoned the smoke killed off any bugs she got. She died before her 103rd birthday, though, when she lit the wrong end of a filter-tip cigarette, and then coughed and choked to death as a result. (Not a bad way to go, perhaps, when you consider the alternatives?) Which all goes to prove something or other.

Probably a North Queenslander ... smoke would keep the mozzies away .... so no malaria / dengue fever.

 

[Wansworth]

FRED DRIFT ALERT!
I read something a few years back about an Australian woman of 102 who put her longevity down to smoking. She reckoned the smoke killed off any bugs she got. She died before her 103rd birthday, though, when she lit the wrong end of a filter-tip cigarette, and then coughed and choked to death as a result. (Not a bad way to go, perhaps, when you consider the alternatives?) Which all goes to prove something or other.

My father smoked roll ups all his life….died of pancreatic cancer

 

[Daydream believer]

A few months ago in an Australian 'newspaper'.. 'Survey shows 10% of Australians say they don't expect to be affected by climate change!!!!'

I wonder what the results would have been if the survey had asked if they expected to be affected by idiot climate politicians & activists

 

[franksingleton]

I wonder what the results would have been if the survey had asked if they expected to be affected by idiot climate politicians & activists

Maybe those politicians and activists have taken the trouble to read about and understand the reality of our atmosphere and how it works. Clearly, you have not.

 

[Daydream believer]

Maybe those politicians and activists have taken the trouble to read about and understand the reality of our atmosphere and how it works. Clearly, you have not.

No they have read the reports from one side of the arguements. Have they taken a balanced view from ALL sides. I somewhat doubt it.
In some ways I regard climate activists ( It seems that is what you are) like you more of a menace than an aide to the future, until we have an acceptance that there could be alternatives. I get the impression - Forgive me if I am wrong, because I do not know you- You are set on one track & blinkered in your view.
As a result of the assertions of you & those of a like mind, we are being forced by those that govern us down a path that I find far from acceptable. It is a debate that is not allowed on this forum so one must limit any discussion
Unfortunately I do not have the knowledge, or the desire to press the matter further. Eventually others will. But not here.

 

[franksingleton]

No they have read the reports from one side of the arguements. Have they taken a balanced view from ALL sides. I somewhat doubt it.
In some ways I regard climate activists ( It seems that is what you are) like you more of a menace than an aide to the future, until we have an acceptance that there could be alternatives. I get the impression - Forgive me if I am wrong, because I do not know you- You are set on one track & blinkered in your view.
As a result of the assertions of you & those of a like mind, we are being forced by those that govern us down a path that I find far from acceptable. It is a debate that is not allowed on this forum so one must limit any discussion
Unfortunately I do not have the knowledge, or the desire to press the matter further. Eventually others will. But not here.

I do not have a view. I deal in facts.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

I do not have a view. I deal in facts.

We’d love it if you have any to share about El Nino. Before the thread gets closed.

 

[franksingleton]

We’d love it if you have any to share about El Nino. Before the thread gets closed.

I do not know much about El Niño. These people do, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ...ng/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[Stemar]

In some ways I regard climate activists ( It seems that is what you are) like you more of a menace than an aide to the future

I've no argument with that, even though I agree with their aims.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

I've no argument with that, even though I agree with their aims.

I think most of us agree that something big has to change to rectify the situation. More people would agree with the activists if their plans didn’t involve sending civilisation as we know it to hell in a handcart. We’ll end up there if we do nothing, of course.

 

[penfold]

We’d love it if you have any to share about El Nino. Before the thread gets closed.

Why would it get closed? CC is explicitly the only allowable political topic.

 

[franksingleton]

It is not a question of agreeing or not agreeing with climate activists. I deplore their actions which distract from the main issue. I do understand their9 concern for their future after we are long gone. For over 800,000 years our climate has been governed by a CO2 concentration envelope of about 280 to 300 ppm. In other words, inter glacial values were always less than 300 ppm.

Some 100s of millions of years ago, after a period of much volcanic activity, CO2 reached over 1000 Ppm. Concentrations then decreased reaching 19th century values by about 1 million years BP. Most of the evolution of ma from homo erctus t0 Homo sapiens has been with CO2 levels below 300 ppm.

Effectively, we have now geo-engineered our climate to having CO2 back to levels not seen since over 1 million years ago. As long as we continue to add CO2, global warming warming will continue. 8Loss of inhabitable and agricultural land will lead to mass migration. Famine and war. The activists and young people have a better understanding of the issues than their elders.

 

[penfold]

The activists and young people have a better understanding of the issues than their elders.

They really don't, they're just less inhibited about sharing their opinion.

 

[Wansworth]

I have been trying to get the council to fill holes in the road for ten years…….I don’t hold out hope for the world

 

[penfold]

Have you tried the W***sy method? He spraypaints male genitalia around potholes and that embarrasses his council into filling them in.

 

[franksingleton]

They really don't, they're just less inhibited about sharing their opinion.

Maybe, maybe not. Some of them will be well aware that CO2 concentrations are now as high as they were over a million years ago. This reconstruction of maximum CO2 concentrations puts current and predicted values into context.

At least they will have the wit to realise what that implies and that they will have to live with the consequences. Obviously, as will be seen in this forum, many of their elders just shut their minds off from reality. I do not know whether it is ignorance or complacency. Whichever, it never fails to amaze me.