Weekend Weather Forecast

simonjk

Well-Known Member
Joined
6 Mar 2003
Messages
2,342
www.sailingweather.co.uk
Hello again,

For the second weekend running it's a tricky one. The overall evolution of the forecast seems okay, with low pressure to the south of the UK and high pressure to the north. It is the detail which will be tricky.

It's probably best to go with the UKMO model in these circumstances, and so that's what is linked to below.

If you need to talk to a forecaster we are here all weekend and it's me on shift. The number is 090 666 444 80 and that costs £1.50 per minute. Or, if you prefer to pay by credit card call 01902 895252, state you want to pay by credit card as soon as the call is answered, and then you'll pay £11.75 for the whole call.

Don't forget, your friends can subscribe to this forecast by emailing sailingweather-subscribe@weatherweb.net

Have a great weekend,
Simon

Simon Keeling
www.weatherweb.net
Weather Consultancy Services



WEEKEND SAILING FORECAST
Issued: 1400 Thursday 8th September 2005

SATURDAY (see http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVI89.TIF)
Low pressure will be to the south of the Scilly Isles at midday on Saturday. The cold front from the low will be through Ireland, Wales and the north Midlands, whilst the warm front is expected through Scotland. Two lots of weather to highlight, the first is heavy rain in western and northwest areas, the second are heavy thundery showers forming over southern England in the afternoon.
For western and northwest parts of England and Wales, as well as Ireland, the day is going to be cloudy and wet. heavy bursts of thundery rain will last through much of the day, with mist and fog on the hills. Further cloud and rain is likely through southern and central Scotland, although the north should stay dry.
For southern England, after a dry start with broken cloud, showers will be developing. The showers are likely to become heavy and thundery into the afternoon, with the highest risk currently expected through southeast England.
Winds will be mainly from the E or SE 8-12kt (F3-F4).

SUNDAY (see http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVK89.TIF)
A weak occlusion moving southeastwards through the north and west on Sunday, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds to the west.
Overall the day should be mainly fine through many northern and western areas. here there will be plenty of sunshine, once any morning mist patches have cleared. The occluded front may have some cloud and a few showers associated with it as it moves south, but overall it should be fair.
Winds mainly from the N 7-12kt (F3).


**ends**
 
For the average cruising or racing yachtsman In what way are your £1.50/min forecasts better than free ones from the met office on line?
 
Surely you can do better than this Simon. I'm in line for a ticket to the Oval Monday and could do with a shower or 3 Sunday to make sure the test isn't wrapped up before I go.

Seriously disappointed with your performance.
 
Because the free ones online only give general trends. Simon also provides free ones.

When you are trying to weather forecast a longer range trip, where the weather can be dramatically differnent a hundred miles away, it bloody hard work.

I know this from being the shore forecaster for tcm when he took his boat from UK to Med, and I posted every few hours on Mobo forum at the time. This is when asking a professional weather forecaster for up to the minute data is good

Most of what you get online is purely automated models, with no human intervention. Humans are stil pretty good at doing risk analyis and seeing patterns that computers don't get. Experience also plays a part.

There are also times when you are eg in Cherbourg, when a Northerly F8 is running, and deciding when if at all to head out or all go back by ferry, with no internet access onboard, where a call to a friendly weather forecaster would be wonderful (been there, done that, etc)
 
i can see your point.i will even put the phone no. aboard just in case I cant really see me using it though.

The one thing that I find annoying when relying on Coastguard broadcasts of the inshore weather is that they get the info between 0500 and 0700 but dont do the first broadcast until 0900 in our area.

Not everyone has navtext or internet access aboard particularilly smaller boats .
 
[ QUOTE ]
The one thing that I find annoying when relying on Coastguard broadcasts of the inshore weather is that they get the info between 0500 and 0700 but don't do the first broadcast until 0900 in our area.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bit that gets me, the Met bods update 4 times per day but the CG reads only 2 per day, which means and often is, the weather is grossly out of date, especially in our stable summer months, ha. The MCA just read the Navtex I guess, it would not be hard for them to log on and give us updated forecasts as they are released.

The 0500 forecast is of no use at 1600 when you are planning a night crossing.

Is it a cost issue?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What about Tuesday next week up here in Scotland....from what I can see at the moment it looks like my roof may get blown off!!!

Paul.

[/ QUOTE ]Day Time Temp RealFeel Rain Intensity Cloud Dir Speed Weather
Tue 0:00 12 °c 13 °c 0 mm 99 % 6 mph
Tue 3:00 11 °c 9 °c 0 mm 98 % 7 mph
Tue 6:00 11 °c 10 °c 0 mm 99 % 11 mph
Tue 9:00 15 °c 16 °c 0 mm 100 % 15 mph
Tue 12:00 15 °c 16 °c 0.1 mm V Light 100 % 17 mph
Tue 15:00 15 °c 15 °c 0.3 mm V Light 100 % 18 mph
Tue 18:00 15 °c 15 °c 1.5 mm Light 100 % 16 mph
Tue 21:00 14 °c 15 °c 4.2 mm V Heavy 100 % 17 mph

3pm on Tuesday 18mph winds ~ 20kts from S or SSE - nice for a wee run to Arran or up the Clyde - might be a wee boogger on the way back from Millport though.
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"Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity"
 
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