Weather?

[zefender]

As of this morning (Tuesday) , met office, marinecall and wetterzentrale (the latter seem to be suggesting that winds will bounce between SW6/7 and NW 4/5 during Friday and with moderate - roughish seas & drizzle.Wetterzentrale's maps lean towards the mildest of the forecasts.

On the basis of these, although its too early say whether we're definitely going, and I'm no weather expert, it seems more likely than not. We'll hold back until tomorrow's update. Any others got a view?

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[CaptainCava]

SW 6/7 would make me think hard.
NW 4/5 would be OK

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[Nickel]

The BBC synoptic predictions seem to be converging with the met-office forecasts now - windier than they were showing yesterday, but not up to the F7/8 that the met were forecasting yesterday.

They show a cold front moving southwards during Friday morning which would probably give a bit more than drizzle. Looks like a fleece needed under the oilies.


<hr width=100% size=1>Nickel

Being paranoid simply means - having all the facts.

 

[ChrisE]

Withdrawing

F r i d a y

Wind: Southwest force 6 or 7 veering Northwest force 4 or 5 then backing West or Southwest and increasing locally force 6 in Plymouth and Portland.
Weather: Rain or drizzle at times.

Visibility: Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.

Sea State: Moderate or rough.


S a t u r d a y

West or Southwest winds, force 4 or 5 for most at first, increasing force 6 or 7, perhaps gale 8 in Wight and Dover, veering Northwest then decreasing force 4 or 5. rather cloudy with rain or drizzle at first, becoming clearer with showers. Moderate visibility becoming good.

Issued on 21st September 2004




I'm cancelling I'm afraid. A combination of a forecast that looks too iffy to call for the return trip and pressure on my better half's business. In another world, I'd probably go expecting to wait it out in Cherbourg but unfortunately both of us must be back on Monday and don't have any time to pick up boat at a later date.

I hope that some of you make it and thanks to BigNick, TK and Tome for their organising.

If it does go t*ts up, could make a Sat meet this side of the ditch.

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[ParaHandy]

was looking last night at the 72 & 84hr charts which both showed the forecast for Friday at 1200. the centre of the low on the 84hr chart was well up into Norway whereas the 72hr had the low over Denmark from which you could deduce that either a) they don't know what the hell's going on or b) the low is actually going to be further south which means v. nasty xchannel winds .........

the same was also true the previous night with the centre of the low bouncing all over the place ...

can't get into wetterzentrale site at all this morning so might try meteo france ...

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[BlueSkyNick]

We are about the same, Eamonn. Looks acceptable, but its still too soon to make a definite decision either way. Will finally decide on Thursday morning before crew leave their homes. May postpone going over by 12 or 24 hours to let it settle down, and by then will have a clearer forecast for the return leg, too.

Like Chris, it might good for a night or two somewhere in the Solent.

<hr width=100% size=1>Sex is like sailing - its not the size of the boat, but the motion of the ocean which matters.<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by BIGNICK on 21/09/2004 09:22 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[ShipsWoofy]

Weather and Bravado

I am not going to Cherbourg and so should probably butt out.

But, I have a bad feeling about the weekend weather and hope no one launches as not to lose face, I refuse to sail as a flotilla for this very reason, you are often compelled to go out in weather that may not be dangerous but WILL be uncomfortable, things will get broken and everyone on board is miserable.

Every bloody weekend this autumn and summer to an extent the Met have issued gales warnings or flat calms. To be fair they have been correct on most occasions, I decided I knew better last month and was storm bound on the most horrible of moorings in Aberdovey. Had a good sail in a W7, but it was increasing, crossing the bar into Aberdovey was one of my more frightening memories of sailing to date.

I am not trying to teach any of you to suck eggs, I couldn't, I just wanted to voice some concern after looking at the charts for the weekend, that big long front that hangs on the French coast through the weekend concerns me along with the isobars obviously.

I hope the weather is favourable, I just hope you all take care.

Not even sure if I should hit send on this one......

<EDIT>Acshully, updated weather is not looking too bad, Metcheck and BBC giving favourable weather, I'll get my coat!

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.topcatsail.co.uk>Woof</A><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by ShipsWoofy on 21/09/2004 12:09 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[Robin]

See here for all the charts up to and including for Sunday/Monday

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500>http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500</A>

I thought the idea was for a fun weekend, this looks as if it could be character building.

<hr width=100% size=1><font size=1>Sermons from my pulpit are with tongue firmly in cheek and come with no warranty!</font size=1>

 

[Twister_Ken]

Hove I got it wrong?

To me, looking at the European Centre charts, Friday looks like breezy Northerlies, Saturday looks like motoring weather, Sunday looks like moderate NWly.

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.writeforweb.com/twister1>Let's Twist Again</A>

 

[zefender]

Re: Weather and Bravado

Agree that nobody should feel under pressure to make the passage. But it's a bit early really to tell whether it'll actually be OK or not. The front may have passed and the depression moved eastwards (as some are predicting). Might be perfectly OK, provided the seas settle down a bit. Should also be OK for the return. I'll be interested to see what it looks like tomorrow but won't actually make up my mind until Thursday lunchtime once the picture seems clearer. Agree it's meant to be fun.

<hr width=100% size=1><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by zefender on 21/09/2004 11:46 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[tcm]

Re: return delivery offer

um, if anyone gets their boat stranded in cherbrg and wants to return on a ferry, i wd happily go and get it next week.

Obviously there'll be less teabags in yer boat at the end of the trip, but then i mean, if you can't afford a top quality service for chrissakes...

actually i spose main prob is getting there not geting back...



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[Robin]

Re: Hove I got it wrong?

Ken

In my view it all depends very much on timing and how accurate the system locations predicted are. Thursday doesn't look nice at all. The yellow area represents windspeeds of 15-20m/s or 29-39kts in real money, on Friday that yellow area is still predicted to be pretty close to the south coast but it would seem to be moving away eastwards. On Sunday the wind looks like W-NW but once again the yellow area isn't that far away in weather system terms.

Also see the USAF site for Friday midday

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack3.gif

Robin





<hr width=100% size=1><font size=1>Sermons from my pulpit are with tongue firmly in cheek and come with no warranty!</font size=1>

 

[Talbot]

Re: Hove I got it wrong?

based on an inference from those + looking at preceeding weather, that will be a gale on the way to cherbourg, and motoring all the way back!

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