Vendee Globe and Alex Thomson / Hugo Boss

Airscrew

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This coming depression (Theta) is interesting.

Whilst perhaps not quite the same physical challenge as 2 nights ago, there seems a slow and a fast option. Its coming toward them, and if anything, weakening not strenthening.
So they can go fast and shoot around the top and then west side, the longer route.
But the slower boats will have it coming toward them, and can so take the shorter route.
Without foils, you might even choose to push through the stronger/harsher section.

Right now, Alex either has a problem., or he has chosen to break from Apivia, head a little more south (and slightly slower), and take the more direct route.

Time will tell, overnight infact.
The first into the trades will have a distinct advantage....
 

cherod

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dont know what alexs problem can be ,, at last update he was fastest boat in the fleet ,, just being out raced / sailed by Le Cam . (y)
 

cherod

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i think the tracker is wrong, it has Le Cam positon as 5 th yet clearly 3 rd on the map ,,Boss going well at 18.5 , but i think Le Cam is going to get that little bit stronger wind soon whereas Boss is just a little too far west for it ..:)
 

cherod

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And again he is going to miss the best of that low which is tracking east with being too far west and LeCam will out race / sail him again ??
 

Airscrew

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I dont see it that way.

Theta is moving consistently.
They both have time and space to choose exactly the radiius they want for the slingshot.
After they jibe this evening, being upwind, Cam will have a margnally better choice of wind angles, but I cant see that being significant.
But yes, Cam is Canny.
 

cherod

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( On the mobile here , ) cant figure out how fast that low is moving but it seems to be bit rapid , that will decide who catches it and who misses it ( imho ?) , after that it all looks a bit benign ?
 

Airscrew

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Thinking about it, AT is more likely to take a more 'inner route' (radius).

Yes riskier, but those behind him (ie Corum and Sam) will be able to take a shorter route, even on the west side, as Theta is moving towards them, shortening the distance.
 

cherod

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( i think ) the low is moving due east , not much northerly in it , AT will need to cover more ground to catch it , le Cam is dead on it
 

matt1

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And again he is going to miss the best of that low which is tracking east with being too far west and LeCam will out race / sail him again ??

How on earth do you get to that view???

My reading is that Alex is very nicely positioned to slide down the back of the low with strong winds off his quarter whereas Jean Le Cam will potentially end up beating into it. The only reason the dagger board boats are doing ok right now is that it's largely been an upwind race so far. All the foilers would admit that isn't their sweet spot. It will soon change and normal service will resume ;-)
 
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