those smart investment bankers

[gjgm]

well, those bright chaps at Goldmans who predicted oil breaking through $100, now say it might fall to $50.
(There again, it might not, I suppose)

 

[AdeOlly]

They have no more idea than you or me; they just pretend they do using dozens of assumptions in their forecasts that turn out to be flawed .

 

[Brayman]

They only make predictions to sway others and make a killing on the results. They've now been found out and we are all suffering.

 

[MVP]

[ QUOTE ]
well, those bright chaps at Goldmans who predicted oil breaking through $100, now say it might fall to $50.
(There again, it might not, I suppose)

[/ QUOTE ]

It was $200 actually - called a "super spike"

MVP

 

[Sneds]

My mate's got a dog called Spike

 

[volvopaul]

Someone will always make a killing out of these times and we are the victims, it good to see that these bank bosses have been sacked for loosing our money, what will they do now without there big bonus.

While our main UK boat builders are struggling its nice to see that Gludys mate has a healthy order book, obviously the poor build quality in Gludys boat didnt have much effect on traders sales figures.

 

[PowerYachtBlog]

sometimes it is fair to say, that every builder makes its bad crop some day or another, even the famous untouchable ones
most of the builders are helpful in many situations and can make the suggested improvement but then depends also how you communicate with them

 

[smayers]

Quote:

"Someone will always make a killing out of these times and we are the victims, it good to see that these bank bosses have been sacked for loosing our money, what will they do now without there big bonus."

Sell their boat!!

 

[Nick_H]

The bloke at Goldman Sachs who famously predicted the $100 a barrel, should have quit while he was ahead. With oil at $140, he predicted it would reach $200, so its pretty clear the $100 prediction was nothing more than a lucky guess.

I agree with earlier poster, they have no more idea about oil prices than you or me, they just get paid more for not knowing than we do ..

 

[mjf]

Yep agree, a crap shoot with other peoples money too!

 

[gjgm]

no, they might be right or wrong, but its not a lucky guess.
Doesnt sound like you get to spend too much time with these analysts !!

 

[Otter]

Help me out here, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

 

[gjgm]

depends if vast quantities of stats interests you!

 

[mjf]

Here something I just read from a conference in Singapore
“We are now likely to see the oil price driven by fundamentals now that the bubble money has gone out, and it is unlikely to come back in in a major way,” Mr Arentz told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore.

In June the crude oil price hit $147 a barrel but this was seen as an anomaly with it now returning to a more natural trading pattern.

Valery Golovushkin, chief executive of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic’s trading arm, SOCAR Trading concurred that the high oil price had been driven by financial speculation. “This financial trading was all very much artificial. The speculation had been at a very high level,”

 

[Nick_H]

Please explain the difference between a prediction that might be right or wrong, and a guess?

 

[MapisM]

I ...guess (!) it's the method that gjgm is arguing about, Nick.
And he's right in this respect, the analysts JOB is actually a hypercomplicated number crunching/evaluation activity.
Unfortunately, this adds insult to injury, because the RESULTS aren't any better than a plain guesswork, on average.
The fact that they can earn money out of such job is simply one of the bugs of capitalism.

 

[gjgm]

I think most peoples' undertsanding of a guess its thats its not based on any analysis that might lead it to be correct, whereas a prediction might lay claim to some supportive evidence.
I agree that neither is automatically correct.
I suppose if I went to see a doctor for a prognosis, I d rather not have a guess.
Anyway, one can discuss the value of analysts for ever, but its hard to advise people to invest on the basis of a guess.

 

[jonnybuoy]

Well to give the guy a bit of slack he looks at oil market dynamics - no-one but no-one predicted the scale of carnage (nor speed of) in the financial markets and the inevitable indirect repercussions in the rest of the world ie recession/demand etc.

 

[AdeOlly]

Maybe not, but to predict that the price of oil would continue to soar to $200 with demand largely unaffected was plainly bonkers. All bubbles burst, and this one which was driven by greed and speculation would have done so without the credit crunch; though the timing and speed would probably have been different.

 

[mainshiptom]

I predict that price will fall then will go up and then fall again !

Fill up when falling , use when going up !

What joy