those smart investment bankers

[jonnybuoy]

Well not entirely true (demand unaffected) as China and India were growing at >5% pa even at 140$/bbl oil due inherent growing energy intensity and domestic subsidies. That development will yet come back to bite us all coupled with non-OPEC growing far more slowly than expected (eg Ven, Russia due resource protectionism + places like North Sea contracting fast & now exploration progs will be cut due credit/low prices etc. etc.).

 

[oceanfroggie]

Don't be fooled by the recent drop due to weakening demand, in the medium and long term oil prices are going one way and that is up. Wait and see where it is in 24 months when demand recovers and in five years time when the prices continues towards $200/barrel

 

[Searush]

I was once involved in econometric forecasting, a massively complicated technique for assessing various economic trends to identify price & demand "drivers". The complex, multi-variable models are tested against historic data to identify the key elements and their relationship to actual outcomes. Then several groups of such drivers are selected to "predict" the future using a different historic period. Over years these techniques are used to hone a model that will predict future trends - given a consistent historic trend. This is basically the same way that computers predict the weather.

The key problem is the "consistent historic trend"; any step change in the pattern, or changes to Goverment regulation, etc etc, can completely disrupt the programme's ability to predict.

I have a very good text book by Makridakis et al if you are really interested, but you will need a really strong understanding of statistical analysis maths to read it.

 

[gjgm]

The key problem is the "consistent historic trend";

Absolutely. And a fair example of the now, not so popular banking/bonus ethic. While the tend continues, the model is remarkably consistent, and everyone gets rich. Then, the model is totally wrong, massive losses for the bank, no downside for the employee.Well, he might get fired, but so what. In the good times, its my brilliance. In the bad times, its the fault of the model.
Still, all that time that you are accurately predicting what is about to happen, well, who isnt ging to pay you for that, eh?

 

[Greg2]

Filled our domestic tank up at home on the back of their predictions....doh! /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Monthly payment more than trebled /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Teach me to listen to those idiots!

 

[PowerYachtBlog]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't be fooled by the recent drop due to weakening demand, in the medium and long term oil prices are going one way and that is up. Wait and see where it is in 24 months when demand recovers and in five years time when the prices continues towards $200/barrel

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO you are wrong as after 2010 I see big investment from 2000 onwards in renewals and altnatives coming online
then on the short term we have what the new USA president will do, which is using less oil who ever gets elected
America consumes so much oil (about 40% of total production), that anything it does it is a hit for oil producing nations
the oil future outlook does not look good and that is why its price is skidding
the 100US$ + and 147 record happened
1) hedge funders, invest bankers and insurance co all putting billions of US$ in the futures options trading
2) the slip of the US$ versus other currencies in particular the EU, in July it was US$1 was 1.60 EU now we are at -1.30 EU
3) China buying extra oil for the olympics but this was little percentage
1 & 2 are very related
I suspect prices to stay in the -100US$ sealing the next couple of years and after that, I see them going down as peoples habit start to change
What I see in the next decade 2010 onwards is basically what happened to communication in the 1990s,
a new energy market with more choice, freedom and greater options

Hopefully in all this they will leave the Diesel for our boats
/forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

 

[Dave_Snelson]

No sight yet of cheaper diesel though eh!?

GRRR /forums/images/graemlins/mad.gif

 

[PowerYachtBlog]

[ QUOTE ]
No sight yet of cheaper diesel though eh!?

GRRR /forums/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

in most EU the prices have gone down by about 25%, here in Malta we have a price fix till end of January with price till 1:20 EURO per litre, we see what happens after that