Thailand Tsunamis

[Ships_Cat]

Hi Claymore

You remind me that when I was at university I flatted with a geology student. With respect to man's impact on the environment his view was that the changes that man could make were so insignificant compared to those that occur naturally in geological timescales that we should not waste time worrying about them.

Now, he was a real scientist in the making /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Regards

John

 

[Mahi]

quote from Ships_Cat]
......You remind me that when I was at university I flatted with a geology student. With respect to man's impact on the environment his view was that the changes that man could make were so insignificant compared to those that occur naturally in geological timescales that we should not waste time worrying about them.
John

[/ QUOTE ]

John, I think you would find that many geologists (.....self included....) see the big picture in this way. Just don't get me started on evolution or global warming!

Whilst I understand what you are trying to say. There are times when scientists have to make an educated call about impending disasters. It is a very difficult call obviously, especially for a scientist that prefers to have as many facts at hand as possible. Again, the scientists at NOAA and USGS had all the information they needed to make that call, just 15 mins after the EQ (earthquake) was recorded. The call would also have taken prior geological and geophysical knowledge of the fault zone involved into account. Their stumbling block, it would appear, was the lack of an organised communication system in the areas involved.

There is a time for scientists to ponder and slowly develop theories and develop models, and then again, there comes the time when the same scientists must use their considerable background knowledge to send out timely warnings when they are due.

Interestingly, I am subscribed to an EQ bulletin that automatically sends a txt direct to my mobile phone as soon as the information has been processed. The same use of the mobile phone network could be made when issuing a Tsunami Warning or a Tsunami Watch. Much of the communication technology is already in place, it just needs to be put into action.

 

[Ships_Cat]

I have seen the bulletin that was issued by the Pacific Centre to the member states 15 minutes after the earthquake. It said nothing about there being a tsunami, it just advised that there had been an earthquake, and at what time and magnitude. It in fact stated that that no tsunami watch was being maintained - naturally as the earthquake was outside of the Pacific. Both Indonesia (which is the most affected state and the toll there will surely grow) and Thailand are member states and will have received that bulletin (which makes a mockery of media claims that none of the countries could be contacted and the inferences that they all placed tsunami warnings at a low priority).

The first knowledge of a tsunami would have been when it hit Sumatra, Nicobar and Andemans by which time it was too late for the whole of SE Asia. That situation would be no different if there was a tsunami warning system in place because there are no sites possible for tidal gauges between the convergence zone where the earthquakes occur off Indonesia and the inhabited areas of SE Asia (if you get a map of the sites in the Pacific - think there is one on the NOAA site - you will see that the thousands of islands make good coverage with tidal gauges possible there).

I am quite happy to leave it at that, letting the facts speak for themselves in the harder light of time when the difficulties become clearer and suggestions inferring the issuing of cellphones and providing cellular coverage to the tens of millions (100 million perhaps?) that live on the Indian Ocean coast for the purpose of tsunami warning are recognised as plain nonsense (it actually makes a nonsense of why I have even bothered to respond /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif).

John

 

[Guest]

Post deleted by danfoley

 

[Ships_Cat]

Brian

Ocean wide large tsunamis in the Pacific are very rare - the last was 45 years ago. They are even rarer in the Indian Ocean.

If you look at the epicentre of the recent earthquake and the convergence zone it (and others) occur in - the zone runs down beside the string of islands immediately to the west of Sumatra (Kepuluan Mentawai, etc) - it can be seen that it is entirely impossible to provide any tsumani warning for Sumatra, Nicobar, etc. Even if one raised an immediate alert for every earthquake it could never be disseminated quickly enough to beat the tsunami. The same applies to Thailand and southern Myanmar. As yachtsmen with some familiarity of navigation we should be able to work this out for ourselves for tsunamis travelling at 500 - 1,000 km/hr and am surprised that some appear to disagree.

Also perhaps people do not realise how frequent earthquakes are in these parts of the world (we have had 2 of magnitude greater than 7 within 1,000 km of us in the last 5 weeks, one of which was magnitude 8 so very, very powerful). None here, in historic times, have caused a disasterous tsunami.

Here in NZ, which is relatively quiet and of small area, we have an earthquake of magnitude 3 or greater about every second day. Most of those are greater than magnitude 4 and are strong enough to get things noticably swaying in their wider location. We are probably among the best prepared in the world for tsunamis (except many of us live in exposed areas /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif) but the target is to get the first warnings out after a tsunami alert is received from Pacific Monitoring in 30 minutes. At the very best I could only imagine the first public alerts going out 45 minutes to an hour after a significant earthquake in the Pacific and those alerts will take time to get both accepted and disseminated among the population. Probably no member of the public at all will get to be warned before any tsunami originating within 1,000 km hit.

While there is contradicting information, for the Indian Ocean tsunami Sri Lanka was struck a little over 2 hours after the time of the earthquake. One is starting to get a bit of breathing space but I, and some others, find it very difficult to understand that unless one has evacuations for every major earthquake in the eastern Indian Ocean, which would be quite frequent, how a civil defence evacuation could be initiated even in that time. Here, except for tsunamis originating from distances across the Pacific far greater than those possible in the Indian Ocean, the main value of preparedness is that some on beaches would recognise the surge signs preceding the rise in sea level and take to higher ground if available. But I do remember that in the 1960 event the main result of the warning issued was to some extent the opposite with people going to the beaches to see what was happening.

I find it interesting that both Thailand and Indonesia are both members of the Pacific Tsunami warning system but, apparantly, have not done much about the Indian Ocean side. I think this probably (but stand to be corrected) at least partly comes from real life experience of the futility of it given the very short time it takes for a tsunami to reach them from the active plate area to their west. Whereas on the Pacific side they may be exposed to tsunamis originating many, many hours travel away (about 36 hours or so for a tsunami to cross the Pacific). There are, as far as I know, no tide gauges integrated into the Pacific system even close to the Pacific side coasts of Indonesia and again I would assume that is probably because of the futility of them (New Guinea and Indonesia are comparatively frequently - both in the last 10 years - inundated from local offshore earthquakes for which no time for issue of warnings would be possible.

I think the possible solutions are very complex and my personal view is that unless there is the possibilty of inundation from events originating more than 4 or 5 hours away (which excludes the Indian Ocean) that the best is just making the public aware of the signs. The problem still remains as to how you keep the public interest in such signs over the long run given the very long return periods involved.

Still some just want to see something done whether of any practical worth or not and I suspect that will happen, at least to a small extent as a sop to the public concerns.

John

 

[Mahi]

Good grief John, many of these areas already have a mobile phone system in place, and if not, there are already enough NGOs and other organisations operating in the same areas that already possess satellite phones. It doesn't take a huge amount of imagination, or funds, to come up with something workable. I have been in remote villages where grass huts even sport SKY TV dishes. There are modern means of communication in some of the most remote areas you could imagine! For the most part, the necessary communication technology is there already!

Not everyone will be saved, but a warning system has the potential to save some and surely that is worth-while? People died on the east coast of Africa several hours after the EQ as a result of the same tsunami; surely a warning system would have benefited many of them, or were they not worth it?

I am relieved that many of the scientific community are making the effort to discuss and debate the options first, rather than dismissing it immediately. Some scientists may be of the opinion that it is not worth it; but not all scientists share this outlook.

Scientists can make a difference – obviously there is work that needs to be done and challenges to be overcome - but only if we make the effort first! The easy option of course would be to say 'it can't be done' and leave it at that. But that does not sit well with me or many others (scientists and non-scientists).

I suggest you read the links that I posted earlier. You clearly have your head very firmly stuck in the sand over this issue and of course you are entitled to do that......

 

[Mahi]

No John, I am not disagreeing with you regarding proximity to the epicentre - obviously it is a matter of seconds/minutes before the tsumami hits the closest areas and a warning would most likely have been too late for most in those areas. I am thinking in a wider context than that, Sri Lanka, India and so on. Yes, ocean wide tsunamis are rare. But one thing is sure, they will occur again, maybe not for a long time, but nobody can say for sure.

Surely to be prepared is the least we can do, if not for our generation but for subsequent generations.

 

[claymore]

Well thats a wussy sort of cop-out if ever I read one. Come on - you almost had the cat on the ropes back there and now you are agreeing with him
TSK,TSK...

 

[Mahi]

Noooo! Claymore you are making me laugh again!

The Cat was twisting my argument. A typical cat-like move that I will not flinch from. Cat is definitely on the ropes as far as I’m concerned, and is probably being hopelessly buried under all the calls for a Indian Ocean-wide warning system from many scientists, including those who are involved in the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centre.

If anything, this tragic event should serve as a wake up call to all involved with civil defence World-wide.

 

[Ships_Cat]

OK Claymore, this is getting tedious, but anything to entertain you.

Maybe Mahi would like to now explore his mass emergency notification text messaging idea for around the Indian Ocean rim with a big service provider, or even do some research on the internet if he has an understanding of how cellular networks work, their bandwidth limitations and their unreliabilty during emergencies.

A place to start enquiries, perhaps, is the work that has gone on in the USA for mass emergency notifications since the World Trade Centre incident (many billions have been spent). A possible lead is Hewlett Packard (I haven't looked) as I understand that their equipment is used to serve around 60% of the world's cellular text messages. Clearly, once the messages start going out there will be a tsunami of voice calls so should consider what happens with those and if and how priorities would be managed.

I am quite confident that he will find that it is not nearly as easy as just announcing "send everyone a text message". Perhaps he can report back on his findings in order to enhance your dismal time marking exam papers /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif.

John

 

[Mahi]

All through history there have been those who have said ‘you can’t do this’, and ‘you can’t do that’. It was not long ago that we were told that cars would never take the place of horses; that no-one would want a computer in their home. It is easy to be a nay-sayer, but it takes hard work and determination to put a new idea/system in place. No one said it would be easy.

Any system, as important as this, obviously deserves much careful analysis and input before being implemented. I am simply throwing around ideas, which may or may not work. Warnings will go to key contacts not every single person as you seem to think I am saying. These people then raise the alarm, perhaps via a local network of sirens/loudhailers (in Muslim countries this already exists in the local mosques). It is a pyramid shaped system. Obviously, ongoing education plays an important part.

The Pacific warning system currently uses the media, through notification to key contacts, as its means of spreading watches and warnings, as far as I am aware, they do not find the dissemination of this information technologically challenging. Strategic use of the telecommunications network is surely another means of getting the message out as quickly as possible. ‘Use all available means’, as goes an old adage of navigation, – this surely applies to any warning system too. It is clear that not every life will be saved – but any lives can be saved as a result will surely be worth it.

It is all very well to sit back and declare that ‘no – can’t be done’, without a detailed study of the area in question first. I believe it can be done, and I am very confident that it will be done, with hard work and determination. You may not agree now, but one day perhaps you will. It seems that in your World you have all the answers. I do not claim to have all the answers, but that will not stop others or myself from looking for them.

 

[Forbsie]

I am a great believer in 'killing 2 birds with one stone'.

I heard a news report this morning saying that they were only finding dead humans, no animals at all. One expert had suggested that all the animals may have evacuated the area up to 12 hours before the Tsunami. If this is true, could we not spend money tagging animals to track their movements and co-relate this data with seismological surveys to see if warnings could be given even before the EQ. This would give a huge shot in the arm to wildlife foundations as well as opening up huge areas of research and could in itself save thousands of lives in both ocean- and land-based earthquakes.

 

[claymore]

Well - what an excellent suggestion. Tubbs the family cat always sits with his back to the woodburner when it is going to be cold. I look at Tubbs then nip upstairs and put on another jumper - works every time.
Guess this has put the whole excellently debated issue into perspective.

In support of believing and not believing that things can be done - I didn't believe I'd ever finish my marking but due to marvellous self determination - aided by a series of visiting relatives whom I wasn't too keen to see, I've got it done and now officially have time on my hands.
What should I do?? Dilemma /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

 

[Mahi]

Wasn't that amazing Forbsie. Totally agree - excellent suggestion.

Claymore /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif, finished at last, what a relief!

I hereby nominate you as Scuttlebutt humourist and diplomat of the year!

 

[Ships_Cat]

But Claymore only did it with a little help from us; he would have nodded off to sleep over the exam papers otherwise. Like a Dickensian character, candle burning, his nose on the table snoring, and the frost on the windows as the fire burns low.

As a cat I have been asked to move to a nice tropical paradise, fully kept as long as I wander off when a tsunami is around. I wonder if they will ocassionally bake me some Mahi-Mahi /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif?

Happy New Year to all also.

John

 

[Mahi]

Hehe /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Sounds idyllic. I suggest a nice warm spot under a coconut tree, and don't forget ...








.....'you are what you eat'..! /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Happy New Year too! /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Bergman]

Re: 2 Hours

Through the 1950s, 60s and 70s we spent countless (secret) millions on a system that gave 4 minutes warning.

Saw a programme last year on these things hitting Japan and apparently there have been so many "false alarms" that people now go TOWARDS the sea to watch what happens!

Amazing

 

[Bergman]

Is it significant that they anti argument is coming from the Cat?

 

[joeirish]

Sorry for multiple posting but I do think we need to do something to help.

How about all of us boat owners doing something to help those whose livelihoods require boats? For example I keep hearing that many fishermen will have lost their livelihoods because thier boats were destroyed. So while there is an immeidate need for aid there is also going to be a longer term need.

I suggest that all the YBW magazines launch appeals to raise money to purchase boats for these people as partof an ogoing fund raising project for 2005. Perhaps a start could be made at the Boat Show? Let's hear it from the anybody interested in pursuing this idea.

 

[kimhollamby]

I have a draught document from a marine industry consultant who specialises in SE Asia, Mike Derrett, who is proposing to harness the energies of marine industries associations such as the British Marine Federation for similar aims.

Rather than get too many efforts trying to do the same thing this might give us a foundation for something useful - I'll provide more details when I have them