johnalison
Well-known member
He has to, now that the supply of seaweed to the Met Office has shrunk to nothing.Dunning Kruger now does weather forecasting.
Storm Isha
- Thread starter dolabriform
- Start date
capnsensible
Well-known member
1980s. 'Bloody weather forecasts, always get it wrong, never tell us what's gonna happen, bah'
2020s 'bloody weather forecasts constantly giving us warning of bad weather all those scientists on the make, bah'.
Who could have forecast that?
2020s 'bloody weather forecasts constantly giving us warning of bad weather all those scientists on the make, bah'.
Who could have forecast that?
billskip
Well-known member
In F1 they can tell you its going to rain at a precise time and place...well almost...1980s. 'Bloody weather forecasts, always get it wrong, never tell us what's gonna happen, bah'
2020s 'bloody weather forecasts constantly giving us warning of bad weather all those scientists on the make, bah'.
Who could have forecast that?
38mess
Well-known member
We were watching BBC Wales news last night and I thought they were predicting the end of the world....
They had a woman reporter on scene near a harbour and she was doing her best to make the calm scenes around her look windy and stormy
They had a woman reporter on scene near a harbour and she was doing her best to make the calm scenes around her look windy and stormy
fisherman
Well-known member
There was a large fan just off cameraWe were watching BBC Wales news last night and I thought they were predicting the end of the world....
They had a woman reporter on scene near a harbour and she was doing her best to make the calm scenes around her look windy and stormy
capnsensible
Well-known member
For those who like to moan about named storms, you may like to consider what happens if you want to make an insurance claim....
Storm damage
Storm damage
Alfie168
Well-known member
Now it's Storm Jocelyn jostling for position to come whooshing in tomorrow.
Mister E
Well-known member
Well it was very very windy in Gwynedd last night. I have never known the wind so strong at this low level.
I had to take the dog out and the wind noise was something to behold. Plus the rain hurt.
I had to take the dog out and the wind noise was something to behold. Plus the rain hurt.
Porthandbuoy
Well-known member
Most of the glass in my greenhouse is gone.
Garden furniture has gone walkabout.
Kids garden swing toppled despite being stapled to the ground
Bird feeder flattened.
Waves were breaking over the garden wall hours after high water last night. Garden full of seaweed, shells, plastic rubbish and stones. Thankfully it was neaps a couple of days ago. Had it been spring tides things might have been a bit more 'interesting'.
Dog got bowled over when I took her out last night. She's a Yorkie and only weighs 3.2kg. She was not happy!
On the plus side I retrieved a mooring buoy and someone else's garden seat off the beach this morning.
Garden furniture has gone walkabout.
Kids garden swing toppled despite being stapled to the ground
Bird feeder flattened.
Waves were breaking over the garden wall hours after high water last night. Garden full of seaweed, shells, plastic rubbish and stones. Thankfully it was neaps a couple of days ago. Had it been spring tides things might have been a bit more 'interesting'.
Dog got bowled over when I took her out last night. She's a Yorkie and only weighs 3.2kg. She was not happy!
On the plus side I retrieved a mooring buoy and someone else's garden seat off the beach this morning.
Clancy Moped
Well-known member
Sounds like the sort of night you lost or gained a trampoline
franksingleton
Well-known member
Quite simply because the atmosphere is complex. It is difficult to separate out natural variability effects from climate change. All I personally could have said, and have said, is that trends that we are seeing are consistent with climate model predictions over the past 30 years. However, those far more clever than I, and much younger, have developed a technique of assessing what component of a specific event could be explained by natural variability and what has happened as a result of Increases in GHGs, primarily CO2.
It is not a question of themhaving to be doom mongers to stay in a job. Climate is changing. Governments, and the rest of us, want to understand why, what is going to happen and what, if anything, can or should be done. I thought that was pretty obvious. You, clearly, do not.
franksingleton
Well-known member
Having scanned through the many posts in this thread, I do not know whether to be Astounded of Anhinga or Depressed of Dartmouth. Maybe, some of you are too young to remember, accurately, October 1987. The opprobrium heaped upon the Met Office is still fresh in my mind. The media, especially the BBC had a field day with Mike Fish’s, “There will not be a hurricane.” We asked why they did not show his next few words. “It would spoil a good story!” In reality, it was a very near miss. Northern France had it far worse than the U.K. Fish was, of course, quite correct.
So, what should the Met Office do when exceptionally severe weather is expected? Perhaps some of you wiseacres could tell us. In the event, it was pretty bad, Storm Isha: Two dead and thousands still without power, even allowing for media hype. The warnings were fully justified. They were also issued well ahead, How many more would have died had there been no warnings? With our infrastructure as it is, much of the damage was inevitable. But, it did give ample time for authorities etc to take action such as ensuring that emergency staff were prepared and ready for the inevitable call-outs. With Jocelyn on ite way, we are only one storm short of the maximum annual total. There are 7 more months to go. I come back to my assertion that we are seeing, not necessarily more severe storms in the past but more of them.
I suggest that some of you should get real.
So, what should the Met Office do when exceptionally severe weather is expected? Perhaps some of you wiseacres could tell us. In the event, it was pretty bad, Storm Isha: Two dead and thousands still without power, even allowing for media hype. The warnings were fully justified. They were also issued well ahead, How many more would have died had there been no warnings? With our infrastructure as it is, much of the damage was inevitable. But, it did give ample time for authorities etc to take action such as ensuring that emergency staff were prepared and ready for the inevitable call-outs. With Jocelyn on ite way, we are only one storm short of the maximum annual total. There are 7 more months to go. I come back to my assertion that we are seeing, not necessarily more severe storms in the past but more of them.
I suggest that some of you should get real.
viago
Well-known member
come now, dont be so disparaging.
she is pretty much bang on the money about storms being associated with rain.
that's pretty advanced stuff for an academic.
i've often wondered if there's a relationship between the north wind blowing and snow. it has been suggested before by commoners but the academics are yet to establish a link, let alone a a cause/effect analysis.
Stemar
Well-known member
So, what should the Met Office do when exceptionally severe weather is expected? Perhaps some of you wiseacres could tell us. In the event, it was pretty bad, Storm Isha: Two dead and thousands still without power, even allowing for media hype. The warnings were fully justified. They were also issued well ahead, How many more would have died had there been no warnings? With our infrastructure as it is, much of the damage was inevitable. But, it did give ample time for authorities etc to take action such as ensuring that emergency staff were prepared and ready for the inevitable call-outs. With Jocelyn on ite way, we are only one storm short of the maximum annual total. There are 7 more months to go. I come back to my assertion that we are seeing, not necessarily more severe storms in the past but more of them.
Absolutely. There are more and, I think, more violent storms than 40/50 years ago, but that's with no data to support it apart from my old fart's impression - (and the Met Office, but they clearly don't count in some eyes). However, they're so much better forecast, so at least people can plan to keep out of the way. The real problem, ISTM is that we can expect the trend to continue, and we can also expect seal levels to rise. Dealing with that is going to take a lot of hard work and money with no immediately visible benefit, so governments, local and national with no view beyond the next election just aren't going to do more than pay lip service until it all hits the fan, when it'll cost far more and be far harder because they'll be dealing with a lot of people who've been washed out of their homes.
Absolutely. There are more and, I think, more violent storms than 40/50 years ago, but that's with no data to support it apart from my old fart's impression - (and the Met Office, but they clearly don't count in some eyes). However, they're so much better forecast, so at least people can plan to keep out of the way. The real problem, ISTM is that we can expect the trend to continue, and we can also expect seal levels to rise. Dealing with that is going to take a lot of hard work and money with no immediately visible benefit, so governments, local and national with no view beyond the next election just aren't going to do more than pay lip service until it all hits the fan, when it'll cost far more and be far harder because they'll be dealing with a lot of people who've been washed out of their homes.
Alfie168
Well-known member
Funny you should say that. SWMBO has just got off the train from Tunbridge Wells. The station announcements on Southern Region were all about delays due to Trampolines on the lines apparently. It was all very Reggie Perrin.
viago
Well-known member
they were probably the wrong sort of trampolines.
snowbird30ds
Well-known member
They're easy enough to cull.
viago
Well-known member
yep, but cant open them.
Clancy Moped
Well-known member
oldgit
Well-known member
Down here on the Mudway, one "snowflake" did bother to wander up the pontoons at the crack of lunchtime, it revealed that one club boat had managed to break most of its mooring ropes over night but did not sustain any damage.
The owner and his wife had not been able to visit the boat for some time.
The owner and his wife had not been able to visit the boat for some time.