onesea
Well-Known Member
It seems it went further south than expected and the worst of it has chosen France for now and maybe a kick for Kent.
Wet out there and plenty of debris.
Wet out there and plenty of debris.
Storm Ciaran
- Thread starter zoidberg
- Start date
Roberto
Well-Known Member
Max gust speeds recorded during the night
UK-WOOZY
Well-Known Member
typical! went down to the boat last night, took down the genoa, dismantled the spray hood.... now the winds arent forecast to be as bad.. the weather forecasts are crap still these days
Stemar
Well-Known Member
Breezy in Southampton last night, but nothing out of the ordinary. We have to collect our son from Heathrow today and he's getting in from Atlanta nearly 20 minutes early, so the jetstream's doing its stuff, but the ground level winds aren't forecast to be anything special, just a bit damp.
bikedaft
Well-Known Member
But could easily have been a lot worse, so still worth preparing?
Roberto
Well-Known Member
Hermit
Well-Known Member
Pah, just a bit of spray over the breakwater!
dunedin
Well-Known Member
Amazing set of AIS traces in the Western Channel at the moment. The Eastbound shipping still coming in, but virtually nothing now going westbound (and the few that are very slowly). Instead there is a nautical equivalent of the Hanger Lane Gyratory system of large ships circling round East of the Cherbourg Peninsula!
fisherman
Well-Known Member
Don't quite know why, but Brittany Ferries has cancelled friday's 1400 from Plymouth, Daughter now has to get there for 0900 minus 90 mins. General disruption I suppose. Nuisance.
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
This storm is an example of one of my more pithy truisms. I was a senior forecaster at Bracknell for 10 years; they call them chief forecasters nowadaye but that inflation for you. Jokingly, slightly at least, we used to say that the only certainty in any forecast was the date - assuming, of course, that you did not involve the theologians. By its very nature, weather is imprecise.
For many people this was a good forecast giving ample time to prepare. For many others it might be seen as crying wolf. In the 70s, I would have been over the moon had I produced this forecast. In the event, I guess that the forecasts will be reviewed and model performance studied critically.
For many people this was a good forecast giving ample time to prepare. For many others it might be seen as crying wolf. In the 70s, I would have been over the moon had I produced this forecast. In the event, I guess that the forecasts will be reviewed and model performance studied critically.
fisherman
Well-Known Member
Old fisherman here used to say "you listen ter they bleddy forecasts bwoy, you'll either starve or drown".
steve yates
Well-Known Member
Oh I dunno, boatie seemd to have it right for around here from a couple of days ago, and windy was showing from same period that it would be france that took the brunt of the winds, mich more so than the south andeast of england. We were never showing much in way of sustained winds of anything over force 7 here.
It didnt match the dramatic warnings of the media.
jlavery
Well-Known Member
Bramblemet and Chimet show pressure and wind effect on water level.
Bramble bank - almost constant nearly 1m tidal surge, even when wind has dropped in the morning. At 0700 it was almost flat calm as the low passed by.
Associated pressure:
Meanwhile in the early hours, when the wind dropped for a short time, the surge at Chimet (entrance to Chichester Harbour) reduces and level actually falls for a time, until the wind picks up. So this is wind effect on level, superimposed on the pressure surge:
Bramble bank - almost constant nearly 1m tidal surge, even when wind has dropped in the morning. At 0700 it was almost flat calm as the low passed by.
Associated pressure:
Meanwhile in the early hours, when the wind dropped for a short time, the surge at Chimet (entrance to Chichester Harbour) reduces and level actually falls for a time, until the wind picks up. So this is wind effect on level, superimposed on the pressure surge:
14K478
Well-Known Member
Unless it’s changed or my memory fails me, container cranes move to storm anchor positions and secure when 40 knots is expected, and I think that’s also the magic number for the Orwell Bridge.
Stemar
Well-Known Member
Following the Met office YT postings, I'd say they got the storm pretty much spot on, including the uncertainty about where it was going to go. In the event, the worst winds were S of the UK, so the critics will talk about crying wolf. ISTM that the folk in Brittany and a few places in Belgium reckon that wolf had some big teeth.
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Absolutely spot on. To me, as an ex-pro, the length of time ahead that it was predicted was most impressive. Right from the start the forecasters on the BBC were saying that the precise track was slightly uncertain. With such a tight centre a small difference in track was bound to give a marked difference in wind. The crying wolves are just demonstrating their lack of understanding about weather and predictability.
The Ventusky app shows the actual analyses back for 7 days, over the whole storm period.
dunedin
Well-Known Member
Absolutely agree. Well forecasted, and certainly a very severe storm - as the Channel Islands and France can confirm.
It is almost impossible to precisely produce the exact path of the worst winds, and as Frank notes, those that actually listened to/studied the forecasts would have noticed this.
But some folks are never satisfied.
zoidberg
Well-Known Member
Am I right in thinking The Beeb now get their wx. forecasts stuff from Meteo-France....? And are they better for that?
dunedin
Well-Known Member
AFAIK the routine forecasts from Meteo France but weather warnings from the Met Office - but sure somebody will be along soon to confirm / correct.
PS. The BBC Weather App has one line weather summaries for a day which are hopelessly and ridiculously inaccurate relative to the detail shown below the summary
Wansworth
Well-Known Member
Seaweed