Should I Stay or Should I Go?

[emsworthy]

Before I ask this question, I am of course fully aware that the decision rests with me and me alone, but would nonetheless welcome the views of those with far more miles under the keel as skipper than I.

We were planning to sail from Emsworth to Cowes tomorrow for a week's break exploring the Island. The forecasts have been a little ambiguous up until today when most now agree there's some nasty stuff coming through tonight but are then a little less in agreement about the hangover tomorrow.

My dilema is, I want to give the family a holiday (and me!) but as this would be the first passage of any significance for us as a family unit (Mum, Dad, boy 9 and girl 6) the last thing I want to do is scare the beejesus out of them and potentially put them off for life.

Once we're there we can have a fairly relaxed itinerary with two or three days to choose from to make the return journey, which is very likely to be with the wind aft of the beam in any event so less critical within reason and a contingency to bring the boat back with a mate if the wheels fall off in big way!

The question is with some forecasts showing 5-6 WSW is this a trip I should contemplate? I am happy to motor-sail the whole way or do I wait for what looks like a better window on Wednesday?

To put it in a little more perspective, if I was with a couple of my sailing buddies it would be a dream weather forecast for a cracking sail and I'm pretty sure the boat is more than able to cope with bashing into a short sea following a gale (recently refitted Sadler 26 fin).

Any thoughts? Are some of the forecasts wrong?

 

[sarabande]

it's looking on the edge of uncomfortable for a young family, but should become better after tomorrow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_wind.html

 

[Gerry]

IMHO if you have ANY doubts at all do not go. It is all too easy to destroy the confidence of your young family at this stage of their sailing careers.

If the weather does stay fine and you miss a day so what? If however(as it looks) the forecast is correct a passage under those conditions could swiftly move from mildly challenging to downright dangerous.

www.gerryantics.blogspot.com

 

[Silent Lady]

Advice

If you are on here asking advise I would stay at home and wait for a better forcast. Not much fun if it gets worse than forcast. As you say you may put a whole lot of family OFF sailing.

Now if it were a group of hardened sailors out for a weekend beer or gin It may be different with each egging the others on.

So your the SKIPPER .. Do we go or do we stay ..

 

[Bav34]

Given your circumstances and this forecast:

Selsey Bill to Lyme Regis
Strong winds are forecast
For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 1800 UTC Sun 22 Aug until 1800 UTC Mon 23 Aug
24 hour forecast:
WindCyclonic, becoming west or northwest later, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 for a time later.Sea StateSlight or moderate, becoming rough for a time later in east.WeatherOccasional rain, thundery for a time, showers later, fog patches at first.VisibilityModerate or good, occasionally very poor.
Outlook for the following 24 hours:
WindWest or northwest 5 to 7, occasionally 4 later.Sea StateSlight or moderate.WeatherSqually showers for a time.VisibilityGood.

I'd wait for better weather.

However The Solent has just that bit more shelter and the worst of the bad weather is 'later'

If you can access BrambleMet and it is, say, showing a 4 you'd be unlucky to be hit by the 8

You could always motor through the sub gap as far as the inner swashway and either beetle across to Wootton then stay close to the island shore or if the wind is northerly stay close to the mainland and head for Cowes from say Hillhead.

Don't look nervous ... it's contagious

 

[emsworthy]

So your the SKIPPER .. Do we go or do we stay ..

Ian, as it stands at the moment (and if some of the forecasts are to be believed) I'm pretty sure we're staying put! But if today's anything to go by when I was meant to be dinghy sailing with a F3-F4 forecast, and we gave up rather than drift around without a puff of air, I would be mighty hacked off if the same happened tomorrow and the forecast F5-F6 gusting 7 emerged as a gentle F3-F4!!

Therein lies my dilema!

 

[jimi]

With a young inexperienced family anything more than a F4 on the nose in a small boat can be uncomfortable! Personally I'd have a look in the morning to see what the weather is actually like.

 

[emsworthy]

You could always motor through the sub gap as far as the inner swashway and either beetle across to Wootton then stay close to the island shore or if the wind is northerly stay close to the mainland and head for Cowes from say Hillhead.

Don't look nervous ... it's contagious

Thanks Bav, this was pretty much my passage plan anyway. It's probably the shortest route from West Pole to Cowes and as you say has the best options if things don't go quite to plan.

Still undecided though. Not a breath of wind outside yet (just popped out to the beer fridge!) you'd have thought with a gale due in the next two hours there might be a bit of a build up!

 

[jonjo]

Pretty horrible week forecast but if this is your only summer family week you should be able to string a voyage together within the Solent. Get somewhere very sheltered for the big blow later in the week.

 

[Tranona]

We are a bit ahead of you in Poole, but I can tell you it is on its way in your direction. I am looking at the forecast for different reasons as I want to get some serious epoxy and paintwork done. Forecast is so unreliable in detail that you can only go day by day. Tuesday and Wednesday look best then rubbish Thursday and OK Friday

Not a good week for either your planned activities or mine.

 

[agurney]

Tucking up in a snug anchorage, followed by game of monopoly, doing some some stargazing, washed down with some marshmallows in a mug of cocoa is plenty of excitement and novelty for the youngsters. Don't spoil it with a lumpy flog to windward if you don't have to.

Alisdair

 

[oldharry]

I was planning a run down to Poole and back this week, single handed 24ft, from my mooring at Prinsted Then as the forecast shaped, it was a run down to Newtown and Keyhaven. At the moment its a run down to the shops for SWMBO, and have another look tomorrow or wednesday. I will not have another chance now until mid October. Hmmm.

You will want the tide running with you going down the Solent. The wind is predominantly westerly so it will be wind over tide in the Solent, and anything over F4 just not worth the hassle, getting very wet and very uncomfortable in the short steep SOlent chop. IMHO anyway!

However there is plenty of good sailing to be had within the harbour over the top of the tide without scaring the family witless. How about a passage to Bosham Quay, or Itchenor and up to Dell Quay for lunch over the top of the tide? All perfectly feasible on the forecast without battering your family senseless in a rough sea. For a flavour of remoteness, there is the anchorage at Pilsea - totally sheltered from westerlies. Nowhere to land except the beach (its a bird sanctuary above the HW mark). Come exploring up the Thorney channel, but keep inside the stakes! You can easily spend a week with some good sailing, and a different anchorage each night without ever leaving the harbour. You could spend the next big blow on thursday tucked up in one of the Marinas and go ashore into Chichester.

If the weather picks up a bit tuesday/ wednesday then a dash across to Bembridge just 7miles from the Chi Bar Beacon will mean you have 'been foreign' as it were. A favourite of mine is to go to Priory Bay for the day, just round the corner from Bembridge.

 

[snowleopard]

Or you could send them across on the ferry.

 

[emsworthy]

I was planning a run down to Poole and back this week, single handed 24ft, from my mooring at Prinsted Then as the forecast shaped, it was a run down to Newtown and Keyhaven. At the moment its a run down to the shops for SWMBO, and have another look tomorrow or wednesday. I will not have another chance now until mid October. Hmmm.

You will want the tide running with you going down the Solent. The wind is predominantly westerly so it will be wind over tide in the Solent, and anything over F4 just not worth the hassle, getting very wet and very uncomfortable in the short steep SOlent chop. IMHO anyway!

However there is plenty of good sailing to be had within the harbour over the top of the tide without scaring the family witless. How about a passage to Bosham Quay, or Itchenor and up to Dell Quay for lunch over the top of the tide? All perfectly feasible on the forecast without battering your family senseless in a rough sea. For a flavour of remoteness, there is the anchorage at Pilsea - totally sheltered from westerlies. Nowhere to land except the beach (its a bird sanctuary above the HW mark). Come exploring up the Thorney channel, but keep inside the stakes! You can easily spend a week with some good sailing, and a different anchorage each night without ever leaving the harbour. You could spend the next big blow on thursday tucked up in one of the Marinas and go ashore into Chichester.

If the weather picks up a bit tuesday/ wednesday then a dash across to Bembridge just 7miles from the Chi Bar Beacon will mean you have 'been foreign' as it were. A favourite of mine is to go to Priory Bay for the day, just round the corner from Bembridge.

Thanks OH. The trouble with this as a suggestion is it's where we live all year and do this most of the time anyway! Just really hoping to get a bit foreign for a couple of days. Doesn't look like it's going to happen now.

 

[Fantasie 19]

IMHO if you have ANY doubts at all do not go. It is all too easy to destroy the confidence of your young family at this stage of their sailing careers.

If the weather does stay fine and you miss a day so what? If however(as it looks) the forecast is correct a passage under those conditions could swiftly move from mildly challenging to downright dangerous.

Couldn't have said it better myself...

How about you sail over with a volunteer, and the family meet you there via car ferry/hovercraft, etc???

 

[billmacfarlane]

I'm writing this on Monday and hope you haven't gone, as the wind is already F6 in the Solent and not a place to take a young inexperienced family. So if your reading this on your berth, have a very good look at the forecast for the rest of the week. It's looking very unsettled and think about not only when you can go but when you can get back.

 

[emsworthy]

I'm writing this on Monday and hope you haven't gone, as the wind is already F6 in the Solent and not a place to take a young inexperienced family. So if your reading this on your berth, have a very good look at the forecast for the rest of the week. It's looking very unsettled and think about not only when you can go but when you can get back.

You'll be pleased to know we didn't go. With Chimet showing F6 - F7 most of the morning I really didn't fancy it at all.

Looking at the forecasts Wednesday seems the most promising and we will then choose between Saturday and Monday when to return.

Thanks for all the advice.

 

[PembrokeshirePromise]

Wise I'm sure - when sailing with family (wife and 5 year old) the only rule I try and have is if in doubt don't go - and if there is a choice - take what looks like the easier option (even if as often - it isn't the most convenient - or the one I really want ..)

As you say - the last thing you want ti to put them off

 

[Silent Lady]

Spot On Then

IMHO .. A good decision . Have a good holiday . Sure everyone will enjoy it including you . Know what you mean about the dingy sailing not much fun sitting in the middle of a lake . No wind and the finish line about 30m away . Everyone looking at everyone else . Did he pump . Does a sneeze over the back count as illegal propultion Happy days

 

[emsworthy]

Big Cahunas?

Although we backed out, the chap in the visitor's birth behind us set off on the morning tide for Alderney in a 27' boat. Mad, brave or confident??

It was just him and a grown up son though I think.