Short term GBP/EUR

[wakeup]

I would say the £ weakens further from here. The market hadn't really priced a 'quick' Brexit, thinking/hoping it would be 'a kicking the can down the road type of event', but recent rhetoric last week suggested the process could happen a lot quicker. It may be a slow grind down and no doubt we will see the odd sterling rally but in all honesty I think it (£) goes lower. I have a property in France and work closely with currencies, rates et al so I have a keen interest - but I just have a feeling my French holidays will get more expensive........i'll keep my fingers crossed for a stronger GBP and resurgent UK economy

It will only get expensive for a while until Frexit and the reissue of FF!

 

[MapisM]

It will only get expensive for a while until Frexit and the reissue of FF!

Dream on.
Let me guess, you are one of those who are not against Europe, but against this Europe, right?

 

[MapisM]

There is a scheme that Muslims use, however I think GCHQ might be tracking that currently for obvious reasons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala

Interesting stuff, I wasn't aware of that.

 

[burgundyben]

Btw, coming to think of it, why didn't someone think to develop a WNTBA app (Who Needs The Banks, Anyway? ) to do this sort of things on global scale...?

Transferwise?

 

[petem]

Transferwise?

Midpoint.com and others. Just Google for 'peer to peer currency exchange'.

 

[burgundyben]

See Deutsche bank shares plunging...I'd have thought a banking collapse by any major ezone bank might swing the exchange rate. What's happening in Italy?

 

[maby]

See Deutsche bank shares plunging...I'd have thought a banking collapse by any major ezone bank might swing the exchange rate. What's happening in Italy?

I was going to say the same - the markets seem to have adjusted to Brexit at least for the time being and I would not expect major additional fluctuations on that basis until we get nearer to a final deal. The failure of a couple of big German banks is more likely to be the cause of big shifts in the near future.

 

[burgundyben]

Italy.

Banks are desperate for bail out.

EU/ECB/IMF say bail needs to be accompanied by bail in.

Renzi is facing a referendum - bail in would have his Armani suited ass kicked from Milan to Taranto.

 

[MapisM]

What's happening in Italy?

Easy question. We are bankrupt, of course. Nothing new under the sun, though - we've always been.
I understand better anyone who would be surprised to hear that the same goes for DB, but actually being bankrupt is not such a big deal for any government, regardless of their theoretical standing (ok, DB isn't a government, but almost).
It's only for people like us, that going bankrupt is a problem.
The US went bankrupt first, UK followed, and nowadays there are others. So what?
And before anyone mention it, let's keep Argentina aside - and also Greece, who was the victim of a demential train of thought according to which it was appropriate to have a subtle dig at other Countries through them. :ambivalence:

 

[Pinnacle]

All this currency stuff is well and good, but we still need much more info on the boat you have your eyes on!

 

[MapisM]

LOL, easy, tiger!
For the moment, suffice to say that we might be able to offer to yourself and S a more decent VIP cabin, next summer...

 

[rwilson]

I stumbled across a recent forecast, bullet points shown below. Just thought i'd post it for those who are interested

A cheaper GBP is needed to maintain the capital inflows necessary to fund the current account deficit
GBP weakness to persist; 1.20 year-end forecast for GBPUSD
GBP-USD at 1.10 by the end of 2017 taking EUR-GBP to parity

 

[jrudge]

sadly the truth is they have no idea!

I saw a chart once of the predictions of currency by leading banks on a 1-2-3-4-5 year horizon and what actually happened. There was nil correlation!

 

[rwilson]

yep indeed - 5 yrs would be a brave call almost no chance of pulling that off other that pure luck - if there were quoting a 5 yr forward then fine, but an outright prediction is real finger-in-the -air stuff

 

[MapisM]

buy right away or wait?

Ain't it funny? After posting my question, eventually I decided to wait.
Actually, not because some of you folks expected the Pound to lose value, but mostly because in these things, unless you wish to speculate, it's simply better to do nothing till you need to do something.
Now, only two weeks later, the deal is not yet finalized (don't ask...), but in the meantime I saved the equivalent of 10k quids or so... Though it's not over till it's over, of course.

I don't even ask you what you would do anymore, in the light of the last tendencies.
I suppose that keeping the fingers firmly crossed is as effective as relying on any forecast...

 

[oldgit]

Hotel in Cala d Or was offering approx 1 for 1 yesterday.
Marina was curiously quiet but have never seem the airport so busy,stuck at the back of half a dozen planes while waiting to depart.

 

[Steruth1]

We can always hope the marinas drop the price of a berth to help us poor brits pay the mooring fees in euros... Can't see it but it's a nice thought ......

 

[MapisM]

We can always hope...

You sure can, but what oldgit said goes the other way round, as I understand it?

 

[oldgit]

Security staff at Palma did comment it was one of the busiest days they had had for ages.
Daughter was down there and the hotel they were staying in was heaving with customers,most from the eurozone with a sprinkling of Brits.
By my calculation,a mates berthing down there has just rising by £40 euros a week.

 

[Montemar]

Earlier this year we sold our apartment at Roses in Spain. We waited for the period of maximum uncertainty which I deemed to be the day Brexit won and converted all the Euro into pounds. Apparently the markets hate uncertainty.
Had I waited another few weeks I could have made at least £10k more!
This is why I am not a financial adviser.:disgust: