Short term GBP/EUR

MapisM

MapisM

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Yeah, I know, I know.
Anyone capable to reliably predict exchange rates would become the richest man of this planet in no time.
In fact, I already answered along these lines to other queries like this in the past, and I feel a bit silly now posting this, because I'm well aware that I could as well toss a coin and get a similarly good result.

Otoh, I'm also aware that there a few sharp minds around here, very much used to deal with this sort of stuff, whilst I've lost touch of these things lately.
So, since I might need to change a fair amount (well, a rather big amount, for myself!) of EUR in GBP in a few weeks, what do you guys in the know suggest, buy right away or wait?

Thanks in advance!

PS: some of you might have already guessed by now the reason why I'm asking, and needless to say it has to see with my boat search.
So, hopefully I might post a more interesting thread soon, rather than this boring financial stuff... :D
...but I'm not holding my breath yet, superstition and all that, you know... :o
 
I can confess to knowing nothing. We are currently shuffling over sub €200K and every time we think that the £ will bounce it now goes the other way.

We should conclude on our purchase this week, so the £ is bound to go up if my luck has any play in this...
 
I don't know. The range within which the relative rate moves is affected by lots of things that separately impact £ and €, making it hard to predict. You could say that the ~16% jump @ brexit was too much and so the £ should strengthen you'd be guessing somewhat.

FWIW, which is probably only a few kegs of beer, remember I'm always a € buyer. If you want to swap €100k directly, so cutting out the bank's spread, then I'd do it. We would agree the FX rate by email/call, then immediately I transfer you GBP to your sterling account and you transfer €100k to my €account. It clears same day. I wouldn't want more than €100k because that figure broadly matches my € burn rate over a suitable period
 
MapisM said:
PS: some of you might have already guessed by now the reason why I'm asking, and needless to say it has to see with my boat search.
Click to expand...
Ooh, does that mean you could become a currency trader soon? Regarding GBP/EUR, my instinct is that GBP is going to fall further in the next few weeks as the market seems to have taken fright in the last couple of days on the growing realisation that we're going to get a 'hard' Brexit. IMHO the only thing that could reverse that is some indication from the UK govt that this isn't their intention. In your position I would wait but then as you have already pointed out, if I really knew what I was talking about, I would be writing this from my superyacht and I'm not:)
 
I agree broardly with Mike, though I think the answer is that the rate will be volatile until some certanty one way or another is revealed. HMG need to start sharing what the game plan is, until that happens companies, speculators and traders are going to continue to assume the worst and exploit fluctautions making it worse/more volatile
 
If the funds are only required for a specific purpose, such as buying a boat, surely the time to make the decision is when you are committed. Then firm up the rate either with a forward or if the time scales are short with a purchase. Otherwise you are just a speculator!
 
GBP/EUR rates are a nightmare to even have a guess at. Short term I think it will fall slightly. However long term one major bank forecasts 1:1, yet another major bank forecasts 1:1.5 for the end of 2017. As we do alot of euro business quite important we know, but if the banks dont know - I dont really have any hope.
 
Licking my finger and sticking it in the air, I'd say in the short term GBP is going to continue dropping although some UK finance data out on Friday which could give it a bounce if better than expected.
 
nothing to add to this euro quid speculation, more interested on when the two threads (one on buying and the other of shipping) is going to appear!

good luck P

cheers

V.
 
The UK runs a significant c/a deficit whereas the Euroarea has a significant surplus. All other things equal £/eur will gently decline over time - of course all other things are never equal. Gbp has failed to bounce on significantly better than expected post Brexit economic data and over the short run (6months) the capex and investment decline will really start to weigh. Continued ECB easing had helped to undermine the euro however the ECB can do no more, especially as inflation will rise to 1% by year end. When you put all that together I would envisage a tough time for £ vs the euro even from these lvls.
 
TonyR123 said:
GBP/EUR rates are a nightmare to even have a guess at. Short term I think it will fall slightly. However long term one major bank forecasts 1:1, yet another major bank forecasts 1:1.5 for the end of 2017. As we do alot of euro business quite important we know, but if the banks dont know - I dont really have any hope.
Click to expand...
The bank economists will have their own somewhat personal forecasting models, but this is an arena where being WAY off the wall actually enhances your name. Nobody cares about the forecaster who thinks there will be a 0.01 pct move, but go for some big numbers and hit the headlines. Of course, when it doesn't happen in a year, no one remembers anyway, and if it does.. well, you were the Jo who forecast it.
Mind you, no one has mentioned Deutsche Bank in this thread...not that I know any more than you can read anywhere ...
 
jfm said:
FWIW, which is probably only a few kegs of beer...
Click to expand...
ROTFL, I can't help noticing that kegs as a beer measurement unit is now becoming standard.
Now, why does that remember me of one of the esteemed members of the asylum who joined the SoF gang...?!? :D :cool:

Jokes aside, good idea J, consider it done as far as I'm concerned.
There are still some i's to dot and t's to cross ATM, but I'll email you as soon as the deal will be finalized.

Btw, coming to think of it, why didn't someone think to develop a WNTBA app (Who Needs The Banks, Anyway? :cool:) to do this sort of things on global scale...?
...Mmm, hang on, coming to think of it, didn't the bankers lobby manage to put in place (since more than I can remember) some laws forbidding any sort of financial business between private individuals? :ambivalence:
 
Last edited:
vas said:
nothing to add to this euro quid speculation, more interested on when the two threads (one on buying and the other of shipping) is going to appear!
Click to expand...
Actually, shipping would be just a walk in the park, compared to what I guess the GBP made you think...
The owner is yet another Brit converted to Med boating! :)
 
Thanks everyone, I didn't expect the topic to raise so much interest in such a short time!
I'm still on my way back ATM, waiting for a connection flight, and I didn't grab my charger, so the notebook is running out of battery (and I just hate typing on smartphones)...
But will follow up ASAP!
 
I would say the £ weakens further from here. The market hadn't really priced a 'quick' Brexit, thinking/hoping it would be 'a kicking the can down the road type of event', but recent rhetoric last week suggested the process could happen a lot quicker. It may be a slow grind down and no doubt we will see the odd sterling rally but in all honesty I think it (£) goes lower. I have a property in France and work closely with currencies, rates et al so I have a keen interest - but I just have a feeling my French holidays will get more expensive........i'll keep my fingers crossed for a stronger GBP and resurgent UK economy
 
MapisM said:
ROTFL, I can't help noticing that kegs as a beer measurement unit is now becoming standard.
Now, why does that remember me of one of the esteemed members of the asylum who joined the SoF gang...?!? :D :cool:

Jokes aside, good idea J, consider it done as far as I'm concerned.
There are still some i's to cross and t's to cross ATM, but I'll email you as soon as the deal will be finalized.

Btw, coming to think of it, why didn't someone think to develop a WNTBA app (Who Needs The Banks, Anyway? :cool:) to do this sort of things on global scale...?
...Mmm, hang on, coming to think of it, didn't the bankers lobby manage to put in place (since more than I can remember) some laws forbidding any sort of financial business between private individuals? :ambivalence:
Click to expand...

There is a scheme that Muslims use, however I think GCHQ might be tracking that currently for obvious reasons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala
 
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