Over reaction to current situation

[neil1967]

I think many of us advocating for a relaxation of the rules are not doing so in order that we might pursue our hobbies

Rather.., we are advocating a relaxation to save lives.

The problem is this:

We live in a highly complex world with dependencies that are unknown. Does anybody really know what parts of the system need to function in order for food to show up in the markets in London?

We are conducting a massive experiment - nobody knows what will happen.., and there is tremendous risk that is not being acknowledged or discussed in public. Indeed, it is viewed as quite a bad thing to even ask if we are pursuing the right course of action.

Anytime people are cowed into not questioning government policy.., we are in danger.

When have we ever undertaken such a program, with _no_ public discussion of the ways in which it could go wrong?

The arrogance of the current policy, is the assumption that a few ministers can know what are the "critical" parts of the system that must keep functioning for food to be delivered to London, and for the lights to stay on, and so on..., and which parts of the system are "non-critical" and can safely be turned off.

Are you satisfied that this is known - by anyone?

I am not. They are guessing...

As of today, the authorities have shut off a vast portion of the system we all depend on for our lives. It is an enormous experiment.

What do you think London, or any major city, will look like a week after the last food delivery and a week after the lights have gone out? How about two weeks?

I am not saying food deliveries _will_ stop.., but the risk of that happening is not zero.

What is the risk? I do not know.., but neither does anyone else - and nobody is asking the government anything about the risks of their policy.

One of my friends died of COVID-19 - he was mid 70’s and not in the best of health. A second friend - in his late ‘40s and fit with no underlying conditions - barely survived, was released from hospital, and has now been readmitted due to he damage the virus caused to his lungs. I don’t know anyone who has died of starvation yet........

 

[GHA]

Which yet again illustrates why there is no overreaction going on here: the world'd brightest scientists, doctors, paramedics, epidemiologists, and mathematicians simply need time to collect, analyse, and dispassionately get their heads around the data.

Only then can an informed decision be taken and jumping the gun is not smart. Even Trump now gets this!

There was some bits on twitter a while ago from the WHO which from memory basically said that lessons learned from ebola and other outbreaks were you have to act now and act hard even when you don't know for sure. Cos you won't know for sure. Otherwise it's too late.

 

[Mark-1]

I have seen reports (BBC, I think) that the overwhelming majority of people dying with cv are either terminally ill or very old ... which if true may mean that despite the current crisis the population in a year's time may be more-or-less the same people as they would have been without cv.

That's not to downplay any death, of course, just to say that at this stage it really is very difficult to tell what the overall effect is going to be.

Yup: How deadly is coronavirus? It's still far from clear

 

[Mark-1]

Apparently antibody rest is (perhaps) 1 week away. I regard that as very good news:

Coronavirus: What You Need To Know - the ITV News podcast with information, advice and analysis on the pandemic

(I'm referring to the Current episode: "The 'game changer' antibody test". )

 

[Heckler]

Tr

But for some , the remaining 50% may never leave hospital, or if they do will not be fit enough to look after themselves ever again. 3 weeks on a ventilator does not do much good to 85 year olds




What's the crew on a AWLB? 5/6. I. A confined space for hours. How can they be sure they aren't infecting their crew mates?


Untackled, the estimate is 80 % if population will get it. So 56million people in UK. Estimates of survival rates vary wildly, probably in part because numbers exposed are uncertain. But 0.1% is quite likely a fair estimate. That's 56k.. that's not 'that' bad but if they all land in 5 weeks that means 10k a week for a system that copes with far less. Yes some would have died of something else. But many wouldn't.

Many will be healthcare staff (15 % if life-threatening cases in Italy are staff) because viral load matters.


That wasn't your beloved NHS's job. Planning for pandemic is the job of the department of health and Public Health England (and it's sister bodies in other nations).

The NHS told the government it did not have the resources. Government decided to do nothing


The NHS has less funding than most national health expenditure. There is inefficiency. Of course there is. But the current problem has nothing to do with NHS organisation. The problems are

A lack of perception in government that if community to community transmission started things would explode so fast.

A wishful thinking that they could contain and avoid community transmission

Complacency that slow testing was OK because it doesn't alter treatment. A very standard medical paradigm. But they actually needed to (a) assume community transmission in January and be screening all symptoms back then (b) use technology to contact trace

But I want you to imagine you got a phone call on 21st January saying "you were on the London Underground 3 days ago. We believe another passenger had a serious infection and so we are legally mandating you (and your family) to stay at home for 14 days..." There would have been public outcry...

A lack of willingness in January to quarantine travellers from countries affected for 14 days. Because of the economic impact.

But that it's the reality of RT-RNA testing. You need enough virus to detect it. So you need 2 negatives 3 days apart. Everyone is desperate to test NHS staff... And it will shorten quarantine for some... But it isn't fast.

You can't test you now with RT-RNA - you presumably have no active virus. You need an antibody test. That is fraught with new problems... Not least... There isn't currently a robust reliable test that can answer that (certainly at scale). Remember 3 months ago we didn't know this virus existed. The speed of test development and validation is impressive to be where we are.


Even if the fatalities match seasonal flu (and trust me - they don't - because you don't kill loads of NHS staff with flu) you don't see all seasonal flu in 6 weeks, you see it in 6 months...

If you stay home and don't get it, great.. but let's hope you don't have a heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, bowel obstruction or anything else that might need an ITU bed...

Cancer patients are actively stopping treatment to reduce their risk of death from the virus. They do so knowing they may now for sooner from their cancer...

“Trust me” “You don’t kill loads of NHS staff with flu” how much is loads? If you are going to do hyperbole then I certainly don’t “trust” you!

 

[Sharky34]

I think many of us advocating for a relaxation of the rules are not doing so in order that we might pursue our hobbies

Rather.., we are advocating a relaxation to save lives.

The problem is this:

We live in a highly complex world with dependencies that are unknown. Does anybody really know what parts of the system need to function in order for food to show up in the markets in London?

We are conducting a massive experiment - nobody knows what will happen.., and there is tremendous risk that is not being acknowledged or discussed in public. Indeed, it is viewed as quite a bad thing to even ask if we are pursuing the right course of action.

Anytime people are cowed into not questioning government policy.., we are in danger.

When have we ever undertaken such a program, with _no_ public discussion of the ways in which it could go wrong?

The arrogance of the current policy, is the assumption that a few ministers can know what are the "critical" parts of the system that must keep functioning for food to be delivered to London, and for the lights to stay on, and so on..., and which parts of the system are "non-critical" and can safely be turned off.

Are you satisfied that this is known - by anyone?

I am not. They are guessing...

As of today, the authorities have shut off a vast portion of the system we all depend on for our lives. It is an enormous experiment.

What do you think London, or any major city, will look like a week after the last food delivery and a week after the lights have gone out? How about two weeks?

I am not saying food deliveries _will_ stop.., but the risk of that happening is not zero.

What is the risk? I do not know.., but neither does anyone else - and nobody is asking the government anything about the risks of their policy.

When, did food deliveries stop?

 

[JumbleDuck]

I trust that all those advocating for the relaxation of rules so they can go do their hobby will first spend a week or two in an ICU to show their commitment to their convictions that it's not a big deal if a few people die. It will save resources if they do it without PPE.

Have you bought anything from Amazon during the lockdown? Have you bought any food when not actually on the point of running out? Watched television? Just checking.

 

[Baggywrinkle]

On a typical day, Patrick Marmo is responsible for about 40 bodies. By the end of Monday, he had 143.

Marmo, a Brooklyn native and a state-licensed embalmer of 30 years, is the founder and CEO of International Funeral Service of New York, a company based in Sunset Park, Brooklyn. It's one of the largest and best-equipped local providers of "deathcare," the term for services including removing and embalming corpses, arranging funerals, and coordinating burials and cremations.

But Marmo says New York City's coronavirus epidemic is straining his industry to a breaking point.

"I don't know how many more bodies I can take," Marmo told Business Insider. "No one in the New York City area possibly has enough equipment to care for human remains of this magnitude."

I followed New York City 'deathcare' workers as they collected the bodies of people killed by the coronavirus, and I saw a growing, chaotic, and risky battle

 

[Skeffles]

The economy will be fine. There are economies in Europe right now that were literally reduced to zero because of wars a mere thirty years ago that are now booming. People staying indoors and out of crowded and unnecessary workplaces is not even close to that level of economic inactivity. On the otherhand, going into those workplaces and ignoring social restrictions WILL kill people right now. as someone who has a damaged immune system of her own, I most emphatically do not volunteer to die for a few pounds in the economy, my life is worth more than that. Stay indoors, save lives.

 

[Triassic]

Had some news from a friend of mine who is a truck driver based in Canada but spends a lot of time running back and forth across the USA. He says in a lot of the states he does't see anyone making any attempt to follow any kind of Colvid-19 precautions, to all intents and purposes life is going on as normal there. In some respects this is useful for us as it will be helpful to have some kind of indication just how quickly the virus can burn it's way through a population and achieve herd immunity, and the kind of toll it will take on its way. Personally I think we should try and hold the middle ground for as long as we can, keep it in check with sensible precautions, allow sufficient movement to keep our economy just about alive, and see where this goes. Easy for me to say I know, but is the alternative really worth gambling with? What I know for sure is that if we all start fighting each other over this Colvid-19 will be the least of our worries, and I suspect we're going to see that first hand from across the Atlantic as well!

 

[ShinyShoe]

Tr

“Trust me” “You don’t kill loads of NHS staff with flu” how much is loads? If you are going to do hyperbole then I certainly don’t “trust” you!

I'm not sure there are published figures. But 70+% of NHS staff are vaccinated.. probably more front line.

I know of 1 who died in the last 20 years (I didn't know them, but it was newsworthy enough on the grapevine). I completely expect to personally know NHS people who die this year. They will be fit healthy people.

My trust employs 8000 staff. If the death rate is 0.1% that means we lose 8. But the data from Italy is that 15% of patients in ITU are healthcare staff.
If survival is 1% we lose 80.

If it's 4% (worst prediction I've seen) we lose 320.

None of those will be people you'd expect to have died in the next 12 months.

 

[JumbleDuck]

What I know for sure is that if we all start fighting each other over this Colvid-19 will be the least of our worries, and I suspect we're going to see that first hand from across the Atlantic as well!

California has designated gun and ammunition shops "essential" after some threats from the NRA. That might not end well. Florida, on the other hand, is allowing churches to stay open and congregations to gather, which gives Darwinism some ironic scope amongst those whose reject it.

 

[FlyingGoose]

California has designated gun and ammunition shops "essential" after some threats from the NRA. That might not end well. Florida, on the other hand, is allowing churches to stay open and congregations to gather, which gives Darwinism some ironic scope amongst those whose reject it.

God will protect Florida and Arnie will protect California

 

[Stemar]

A bit surprised it's California that's done that, it always struck me as one of the more sensible states. Texas, well... I suppose they'll make attendance at gunshops compulsory

 

[Iliade]

But still Germany costs 25% more than ours, they must be dreadfully inefficient. Or perhaps, just perhaps, neither they or the UK are, it is just that Germany is properly funded. Give the NHS an additional 25%, or just 20%, hell make it 15% and then let's compare the two systems
Mind you I do agree with PVB that he'd ''expect health insurance to cost more than direct government-funded care.'' as you have another level of pen pushers and incumbent bureaucracy to pay for

Maybe, just maybe, Germany doesn't work their junior doctors to breaking point but trains and employs enough staff to do the job properly?

 

[Heckler]

The

I'm not sure there are published figures. But 70+% of NHS staff are vaccinated.. probably more front line.

I know of 1 who died in the last 20 years (I didn't know them, but it was newsworthy enough on the grapevine). I completely expect to personally know NHS people who die this year. They will be fit healthy people.

My trust employs 8000 staff. If the death rate is 0.1% that means we lose 8. But the data from Italy is that 15% of patients in ITU are healthcare staff.
If survival is 1% we lose 80.

If it's 4% (worst prediction I've seen) we lose 320.

None of those will be people you'd expect to have died in the next 12 months.

The issue is that we don’t know what the infection rate is! I was with a consultant last week, he said that he and a lot of his colleagues are of the opinion that if the ones, like me and bride and friends, who are pretty certain have had the mild form, were put in to the equation then the death rate is close to 0.1 % the same as a bad seasonal flu! We are seeing more and more public people having it and a week later are on national tv answering questions, so! Doom mongering by an NHS pro isn’t helpful, your evidence is no better than mine! Plus the public is now seeing these public personas having suffered a mild form and the penny is starting to drop. Perhaps Trump and Sweden will end up being the winners?

 

[Heckler]

Maybe, just maybe, Germany doesn't work their junior doctors to breaking point but trains and employs enough staff to do the job properly?

And of course Germany has private insurance in the mix, a big no no to the die hard lefties on here

 

[Sharky34]

Maybe, just maybe, Germany doesn't work their junior doctors to breaking point but trains and employs enough staff to do the job properly?

Isn't that because medical upper ranks went through that regime, so want to keep that tradition?

 

[JumbleDuck]

A bit surprised it's California that's done that, it always struck me as one of the more sensible states. Texas, well... I suppose they'll make attendance at gunshops compulsory

They initially closed gun shops but caved in when the NRA started threatening.

 

[Daydream believer]

. Perhaps Trump and Sweden will end up being the winners?

Would you really want Trump playing Russian roulette with your life?
( cruise missiles aside that is)