Is it possible/sensible to have "100% Confidence" whilst boating?

[tcm]

Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

An esteemed contributor proposes a manouvre in which he has "100% confidence". Wow.

I'm 100% confident that it'll be sunday tomorrow if today is Saturday, that the sea round the UK will be colder than the med, and that since I have six 17mill spanners on board i will have one if i need one. I'd bet the house on these things.

I'm still pretty confident about other things, like the engines starting, the cooker working because tey always have done so far and done the same 100+ times but can't say i'm 100% confident. One day they won't start, so i might be 99% confident about those things.

But when it comes to boat manouevres I would never purport to be 100% confident. I'm always ready for it t get a bit ugly, and I like plans that have a get-out half way through, and another getout half thru plan B too. In going short trip from Malaga to Gibraltar in highish winds recently I did explain to new crew that we were now on Plan G, for example.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that being 100% confident isa a pretty unhealthy state of mind with regard to boating, no? I'm not 100% confident on very much once the wind and waves get involved and hence would try keep things simple.

And further, I would discount the opinion of boaties/crew who put forward a sugestion and claim "100% confidence" that their plan would work, although of course I would always listen and be nice about it, just in case they came with other stuff, maybe.

How bout you?

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

No, I'm never 100% confident when on the boat too many variables, especially as you have to consider mother nature!!
I also like to have a "get out clause" especially when manouvering, thats why I have a wandering crew with my "Oh sh*t fender".
Plus you have to consider other people/crew, so 100% confidsent, I consider an unhealthy way to look at things!
Niot exactly 100% confident ashore either and I'm considered a confident person, decisive anyway.

 

[Major Catastrophe]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

I always assume the first casualty will be my plan.

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Oooh, no, I think there's plenty of stuff about boating in which one can have 100% confidence. For example, I have 100% confidence that any repair to my boat or any item of chandlery I buy for my boat will cost more than I think it ought to. I have 100% confidence that, if I invite guests on board, at least one heads will get blocked and one hugely expensive Ferretti logo'd glass will be broken. Then I have 100% confidence that SWMBO will complain about the weather, whatever it is. I have 100% confidence that 14yr old brat will threaten never to come again unless I install satellite TV dish. Then I have 100% confidence that I will leave my boat asking myself whether it's all worth it
See, there's lots you can be 100% confident about when it comes to boating

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Oy! I never broke any glasses!! Or blocked your heads! The rest I agree with!!! /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

 

[zt260]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

I,m 100% sure i,m not confident if thats any use /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

 

[colingr]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Your apostrophes have dropped. I'm sure there's a cream you can buy for that. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Thats why we gave you the plastic glasses /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[zt260]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

I think your right i seem to be getting a lot of e mails about tablets that sort it out /forums/images/graemlins/blush.gif

 

[jfm]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Agreed. The fact many things aren't known with 100% confidence is a good thing though. Indeed if everything were predictible at 100% confidence there would be no opportunity to seek out <100% confidence situations and make a smart guess and buy a large boat with the proceeds (for example, trying to keep things boaty).

But on awkward boat manoeuvres you shouldn't be 100% confident. Best to have plans B-F lined up. And ref the Indian Rope Trick of course there shouldn't be any 100% confidence it would work. There is a chance you couldn't throw the 40m of 16mm across the fairway, and a chance the wind would shift so clanging the boats together, a high chance Classic Skipper wouldn't allow it, etc. Yup, if a crew member claims 100% confidence in something like the IRT you should discount it as per your last para

As matter of interest, having done 3.5 transats, how confident are you that you wont get stuck in some seriously bad ("perfect") storm/seas? Are the forecasts and your ablity to run for calmer waters good enough to make you 90% confident, or what?

 

[capnsensible]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

It is with a motor boat because they are so easy to drive.

 

[sarabande]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

without invoking the ghost of GC1 and his risk assessment strategy....


I think that what's missing from the original statement is a load of precursory and unstated assumptions about

failure of machinery or equipment,

unforeseen external (i.e. not within the control domain of the skipper) events,

unexpected change in crew performance (e.g. sudden sickness, exposure of lack of skill or knowledge or motivation)


If you have undertaken a reasoned and logical maintenance schedule for everything from diesel tank cleaning, renewal of time expired service batteries, end for ending a main halyard or anchor chain, and so on, then I think it quite realistic to say that you expect a manoeuvre to take place to 100% of your expectations, provided nothing breaks / no-one falls overboard / rogue wave / magnetic solar storm.

The skill of being a successful skipper is in the prudence (sorry for the word !) of having your plan B, B2, ...Z, or the generic readiness of umpteen years of sailing / moboing and the experience of things "gang oft aglay" - and knowing that an appropriate response is within the capabilities of yourself and your crew.

If you wanted to immerse your head in MTBF (mean time between failure) of circuit cards in the plotter, decay rates of armoured rubber diesel lines, % error in weather forecast strength of winds, accuracy of tidal diamonds, or the risk of your crew eating a contaminated FB pie, then you could provide a more precise figure to your anticipated success expectation - but I suspect you wouldn't have time to hoist the anchor.

In designing data centres for banks and similar, it is not unusual for the serviceability level to be quoted as "Five 9s" - that is 99.99999 % guaranteed level of full service. This expectation (often used as an insurance marker) is for about 5.3 minutes of unforeseen downtime within any year of operation. However Visa knows that 5 mins downtime is worth over $58 million LOSS of transaction, so they have added a few more 9s !

The failure of many manoeuvres in sailing / moboing is down to

failure to maintain equipment properly so that it is always available in an operating condition
failure to operate the vessel within the defined operating envelope
lack of skill, knowledge, or physical ability in the crew
genuine accident from an external - usually more energy-rich source (e.g Pride of Bilboa, collision with surfacing whale) beyond the control domain of the skipper

Unfortunately bad events happen, but I'm ready to bet that the CHIRP system will (like the CAA accident reports) gradually make it evident that human error is to blame for most of them.

I's be happy to sail with most skippers on this forum, but there are some boat owners whose risk aversion profile or boat handling / maintenance skills would cause me to look very carefully at the details of their "100% confident" forecast.

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Ah! Wondered about that!! We dont have any "plastic" glasses!! /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

 

[MedDreamer]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

I'm never 100% confident but I do like to get it right first time as plan B usually involves shouting at SWMBO and trhat inevitably ends up costing me money

 

[DavidJ]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Ah! You're forgetting that the 100% confidence got revalued in yr2000 and again in 2004.
100% is now worth less than 80% (in old % currency) hence the commonly used phrase "I'll give it 110%" or even as much as 120%!!
So in view of the new %confidence currency, yes it is possible to have 100% confidence whilst boating. /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

 

[Talbot]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Anyone who doesnt do "what if's" is a problem waiting to happen.

 

[tcm]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

Um, well not 100% sure I won't be in a storm, definitely, but I shorten the odds by going at the so-called "best" times when arg tropical swirly storms like on the telly chances are minimal or pretty much zero, and (as right now) geting the rigger and sails and other stuff as fixed as poss.

But on the other hand I spose i do get a bit better at things in the rougher weather. Quite interesting taking newbies along, who often refreshingly calm about big slosh of water splooshing onto cockpit table and one of them said "what wouldd you call this sea - would you call this "choppy?" " in 28ish knots and 3m sea.


Not been in more than solid F7 ie under 35knots, tho occassional gusty sqalls of towards 40-50knots tho squalls only for 5-10 mins. I am increasingly confident that if i get the sails down it'll probly be ok eventually altho there might be stuff busted - things like the Woods abandoned catamaran getting thru F9 even tho they abandoned also worth noting.

More serious/frequent problem (twice now) is hitting stuff in the water, hence I have big tins of underwater epoxy if rudder gets ripped off, snorkel, dive gear.

I spose the chanciness of transat is part of the attraction, maybe. However, swmbo doesn't seem to think it in the least bit chancey that i will make it all fine again and has already booked flight to martinik, and guadeloupe. So I bet that in harbour at least she'd be much better crew for Tony, and not me (or you).

 

[tcm]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

ooh ouch. But spose the manouevre involved all warps and stuff, and especially - a quick rolling hitch or a tautline hitch?! Still 100% confident?

 

[gjgm]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

well, its a personal assessment.
Being 100pct confident doesnt mean that you are right to any measure.
But surely its just a turn of phrase. If someone says he is 100pct confident, I d take that to mean he is damn sure (by whatever his standards are) If he is 99pct confident, he is still pretty sure. No one says I m 92pct confident, for example, in normal life.

 

[Moody]

Re: Is it possible/sensible to have \"100% Confidence\" whilst boating?

As far as boats are concerned I am always 100% confident that there is a chance that something might not go to plan.

Neil