How accurate is Windy's swell forecast?

[webcraft]

We would like to go to Rabat from the Algarve for a few weeks, but Rabat is closed in a NW swell of any more than 2m. I can find 24 hour windows when it is 1.7 to 1.9 metres, but that is a bit close to the port limit.

How accurate is the swell forecast, and is the GFS or ECMWF model better?

 

[lustyd]

We find the various wave and swell models pretty good (used in UK/French waters). You have to look at both along with wind and wave period to get a good picture. I don't think any is really better or worse, and all show what you'd probably guess anyway but the visual is nice.

 

[webcraft]

We were planning to sail Saturday arrive Monday. Swell for Monday is forecast as between 1.8 and 1.9 metres, which is a little close to the limit

 

[Leslie frank]

Are you sure the port will be open? As I remember it is horribly shallow in the approaches so nearly 2m swell could be proper dodgy.

 

[webcraft]

Are you sure the port will be open? As I remember it is horribly shallow in the approaches so nearly 2m swell could be proper dodgy.

No, not sure, hence my post. 2m is widely reported as the limit, so how accurate is a forecast of nearly 2m?

Don't suppose there is anyone in Rabat just now?

 

[lustyd]

We were planning to sail Saturday arrive Monday. Swell for Monday is forecast as between 1.8 and 1.9 metres, which is a little close to the limit

2m swell is nothing if the period is long enough. At 20s period 2m is fairly comfortable.

EDIT: sorry, reread OP and this is irrelevant

 

[Roberto]

On a scale of 4 (0 no risk, 4 extreme risk), that coast is at level 3 for tomorrow



You may try and cross check with ECWMF/GFS forecasts for the same period, and definitely have a look at the web site before you decide to leave
Vigilance-Maroc-Météo

Actually, while approaching the coast the swell period (length) is definitely relevant and people often get caught out: a long period and a small height makes the swell barely noticeable while offshore, the swell wave has an enormous energy nonetheless and when it begins feeling the depth and depending upon the near shore depth gradient the shoaling process will redistribute wave energy and multiply the height by as much as 1.5x 2x creating breakers from spilling to plunging --a 1m swell with 10s period can hardly be felt while offshore, but it can create 1.5 - 2m breakers near the coast; how many times people approaching bars talk about the cockpit being ''flooded by a wave that came out of nowhere''

 

[BobnLesley]

No, not sure, hence my post. 2m is widely reported as the limit, so how accurate is a forecast of nearly 2m?

Don't suppose there is anyone in Rabat just now?

How brave are you feeling?
We once exited Rabat in about a 1.50m swell and agreed that we really wouldn't have wanted to be going in that day. There was a place you needed to make a turn into a narrow channel between two sandbanks and to make that turn you needed to get scarily close to one of the sandbanks; on the exit you were turning into the swell so could power into it and out to sea, so it was just... unsettling, but when entering that surge would be coming from astern/on the quarter and pushing/surging you onto one or other of the sandbanks just when you would prefer to be easing the throttle and slowing down.

 

[Roberto]

On a scale of 4 (0 no risk, 4 extreme risk), that coast is at level 3 for tomorrow

View attachment 207374

You may try and cross check with ECWMF/GFS forecasts for the same period, and definitely have a look at the web site before you decide to leave
Vigilance-Maroc-Météo

Actually, while approaching the coast the swell period (length) is definitely relevant and people often get caught out: a long period and a small height makes the swell barely noticeable while offshore, the swell wave has an enormous energy nonetheless and when it begins feeling the depth and depending upon the near shore depth gradient the shoaling process will redistribute wave energy and multiply the height by as much as 1.5x 2x creating breakers from spilling to plunging --a 1m swell with 10s period can hardly be felt while offshore, but it can create 1.5 - 2m breakers near the coast; how many times people approaching bars talk about the cockpit being ''flooded by a wave that came out of nowhere''

Just checked, 13s swell I personally would not go.
On an old thread I posted a video of us entering the Rabat/Salé port in quite moderate conditions, the "pilot" said no worries follow me and we found ourselves surfing down a wave with the sounder 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0...

 

[webcraft]

I don't regard a 13s wave period as too much of an issue if it is regular. I am not concerned about the crossing from Portimao to Rabat, only the entrance.

We would leave on Saturday as the current hoolie was dying away. It is the arrival Monday I am concerned about. HW is 17.30

 

[Roberto]

I was specifically referring to the entrance. Anyway, sorry I could not explain myself better -it might have taken 10 pages- you feel it's good so best luck

 

[webcraft]

I was specifically referring to the entrance. Anyway, sorry I could not explain myself better -it might have taken 10 pages- you feel it's good so best luck

No, I don't feel confident, but I am wondering when/if conditions are ever suitable to enter Rabat. I think I would only like to arrive when the swell forecast is for 1.5m or less, though that seems to be rare. We will probably not set off on Saturday unless the swell forecast improves significantly, as we do not want to end up in Mohammedia, which seems to be the only alternate.

 

[Leslie frank]

Have you thought about putting in to Tangier for a couple of days and taking the TGV to Rabat to suss it out? Its just over 1 hour away

 

[webcraft]

Have you thought about putting in to Tangier for a couple of days and taking the TGV to Rabat to suss it out? Its just over 1 hour away

We were originally going to go to Tangier, but there is a lot of orca activity in the strait.

Without the orca, Barbate to Tangier is less than 30nm, but a boat was sunk near Tangier recently.

 

[Leslie frank]

Tell me about it! Year before last we went Med to UK then last year back to Med.
What we did last year was go Barbate to Estepona. From there across to Marina Smir. Then hugged thecoast down to Tangier. There are a couple of deep areas but in the main under 30m. You can stop at Ceuta on route which is nice.
Smir takes you further east than the Orcas typically go but I'm sure you follow orcas.pt etc.
It worked for us.
I love Tanger and Rabat but Tetouan is probably my favourite and is a short taxi ride from Smir. From there a shared taxi to Chefchouan is a must if you can do it.

 

[Leslie frank]

Tell me about it! Year before last we went Med to UK then last year back to Med.
What we did last year was go Barbate to Estepona. From there across to Marina Smir. Then hugged thecoast down to Tangier. There are a couple of deep areas but in the main under 30m. You can stop at Ceuta on route.
Smir takes you further east than the Orcas typically go but I'm sure you follow orcas.pt etc.
It worked for us.
I love Tanger and Rabat but Tetouan is probably my favourite and is a short taxi ride from Smir. From there a shared taxi to Chefchouan is a must if you can do it.

We were originally going to go to Tangier, but there is a lot of orca activity in the strait.

Without the orca, Barbate to Tangier is less than 30nm, but a boat was sunk near Tangier recently.

View attachment 207420

One other thought. I am with Pantaenius insurance and I assumed that Morocco was covered. I subsequently found that i hadn't been. NorthAfrica is another area. It didn't cost anymore to add it on. Its worth a double check.