Forecast for early August

[Chris_Robb]

Annual Hols start 2nd August - anyone got a direct line to HUT (Him up there) for a good line in advanced forecast???
Metchecks 30 day forecast looks awful - but they have just started talking about the next heatwave starting around the 12th



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[david]

You could try here Chris http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/
don't know if you will be any happier though. /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif it does show an improvement after the 12th, thats when I will be on my way across the celtic sea. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

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[Neal]

Bill Giles gives a 30 day, and even a quarterly, forecast. You'll find them on the BBC Weather pages.

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[qsiv]

Well - the early stages look a bit unpleasant - significant gales from NW -> W, decreasing SW 5/6, with significant seas. Later it is possible that you could get more settled SW airflows. The low pressure that is likely to give gales across the SW approaches does look as though it will be filling slowly as it reaches Europe, which may take some of the sting out of it - but whilst it's still in the Atlantic it looks as though there could be winds of up to 50 knots, so there is likely to be significant swell in the following days, particularly as it reaches shallower water.

It's very early days to b looking so far forward with any degree of certainty, but I wouldnt bank on an incident free start to Cowes Week. The real issue will be if theres decent weather for the maxis to attack the Fastnet record.

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[Chris_Robb]

Looking at Metcheck and one called the weather outlook - both are now beginning to predict a good start with high pressure temprarily setting in on the 2nd with warm s/e winds. Which forecast site are you looking at? I suppose 1 week ahead is all we can expect in reality for an indication.

Aim is to cross channel on Saturday or Sunday (2nd 3rd) from plymouth to ...... depends on wind.

2 wives on board (only one is mine) so flat crossing required or mutiny will break out.

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[charles_reed]

Gin & diazepam

Work wonders with nervous wives!!

And they don't end up with hangovers.

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[charles_reed]

In a Sailboat

The last thing you want is an established high pressure area.

It is somewhat ironic that, to go places, you need a constant stream of little depressions.

Or you're better off with a powerboat.

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[Chris_Robb]

Re: Gin & diazepam

Got plenty of gin - now for the diazepam! at least we won't get - whilest crossing the shipping lanes

Have you seen that ship (already gone passed)
That ships going to hit us - (still 6 miles away)
Thats got a lovely colour on its flag (just missed us)


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[NigeCh]

Fair weather sailor?

Talk to her indoors who doesn't go sailing:

Me: "The forecast is awful"

Her: "Why are you worrying? Isn't sailing about getting wet?"

Me: "But we go climbing in Scotland in the wet ... and you get wet, and you don't like it."

Her: "But not in the midge season"

Etc .....

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[qsiv]

I was looking at the FNMOC/NOGAPS charts on Wetterzentrale <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ngp10.wav.132.europeg.html>heres one</A>...

but in the intervening period they must have rerun the models, and they now show the centre passing MUCH further North, so it looks to be light winds, with just that left over swell. The Channel tides usually serve to knock the tops off fairly quickly - although you may some stupendous, lazy swells off l'Aberwrach (if you're going that far - you've only just come north I seem to recall).

I'm just envious - I've got a lovely boat going up and down on every tide, and I havent had an opportunity to use her at all - I havent even set foot aboard in five weeks, which is desperately sad. Boys now off school, and are rather puzzled that for the first time in their lives we have got to July without using the boat at all.

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[Dominic]

Good Downwind Conditions

The Azores High is set and has been for weeks.

You will get from Portugal to the Canaries in no time at all, straight downwind.

in 1797 Nelson sailed from Cadiz on 14 July to arrive in Tenerife on 21 July -
a thousand miles in seven days.

On the 25th July he lost his arm off Santa Cruz in Tenerife.

I looked last month but I couldn´t find it.

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[Chris_Robb]

Sorry to hear that you have had little liason with the second wife this year.

Not sure where we are going this year - but if there is a heavy swell, then Scillies does not sound too good. I think it will be Northern Brittany - Guernsey - Treguier - etc. - much depends on the saturday/sunday weather. We have holidayed with the same couple now for 6 years. We have been across the channel every year - each year it has always been flat calm - plenty of hot water and ice.

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[Chris_Robb]

Re: Good Downwind Conditions

Not going quite that far! Couldn't find the arm or the high??

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[qsiv]

Not so much second wife (goddammit I can barely afford the one I've got!) - but this is the second extended stay in hospital - just as the hols stated.

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[Chris_Robb]

bad luck - you must be as fed up as hell. Hope you get out soon fully mended.

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[Roberto]

It is still a bit distant, but anyway, if you look at FNMOC forecast charts, they keep on showing highly zonal flow for the next few days, meaning that any low pressure should transit quickly over the uk going east; that means you may find a suitable window by just waiting a little bit; moreover, on 500mb forecast charts the 5640m level is quite north (halfway uk) and forecast to stay more or less there, that should mean that any depression over the channel should not bring winds above 6bft, rather lower.
If 5day forecast charts have any meaning...

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