Flood warnings as well!

Brent Goose said:
If I have understood thier predictions correctly then it looks like we will have tidal heights of around 6m for a good couple of hours. :eek:
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Unlikley, i went to the marina on the last occasion under a duty of care, the marina staff were busy extending the pile heights with sections of RSJ

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The flood warnings are for the HW in the middle of the night. The surge seems to be very sharp, and almost coincides with HW. Wallasea,, Foulness, and Mersea have the strongest warnings, with Maldon Hythe and a few other places slightly less likely. However, lots of the Norfolk and Suffolk coast looks to be pretty nasty during the night.
 
DavidofMersea said:
As I write now at 10.20 am on Thursday, it is half tide, and it does not look any higher than any other half tide at Mersea - I can't help wondering if the "experts" are starting another panic over nothing - We will see
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Forecast surge for lunchtime tide today is negative 0.75m, so it will be lower than usual. Forecast for early am tomorrow is positive ~1.3m which is what the fuss is about.

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alant said:
Why, is there a surge, when the wind appears to be blowing offshore?
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Because it's blowing down the North Sea which is where our tide comes from. Combine that with low pressure here and high pressure elsewhere.
 
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MikeBz said:
Forecast surge for lunchtime tide today is negative 0.75m, so it will be lower than usual. Forecast for early am tomorrow is positive ~1.3m which is what the fuss is about.

ntslf_felixstowe.1.1.png




Because it's blowing down the North Sea which is where our tide comes from. Combine that with low pressure here and high pressure elsewhere.
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My house is on the Beach at West Mersea, and I sleep downstairs - Should I go to bed with a life-jacket on?
 
alant said:
Why, is there a surge, when the wind appears to be blowing offshore?
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The main cause of the surge is the low pressure making its way round Scotland drawing water with it, then dumping it in the North Sea. However, as you say, it is difficult to see this being a problem with East Coast estuaries with a predominantly westerly wind which should help counter it. The Low Countries on the other side of the North Sea however....
 
MikeBz said:
Forecast surge for lunchtime tide today is negative 0.75m, so it will be lower than usual. Forecast for early am tomorrow is positive ~1.3m which is what the fuss is about.

ntslf_felixstowe.1.1.png




Because it's blowing down the North Sea which is where our tide comes from. Combine that with low pressure here and high pressure elsewhere.
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Currently -0.89m surge at Harwich (12.20 GMT) http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/Sensors/HarwichLevel.aspx
 
Current levels in the southern part of the Thames estuary are actually way below predictions, i.e. a' negative surge', with an hour or so to go before HW. I guess things could be different tomorrow when the wind has gone NW, if it's still howling.
Our pal Simon Keeling has been sounding off loudly this morning about mis-reporting / sensationalsim of the weather. www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=939
 
Cantata said:
Current levels in the southern part of the Thames estuary are actually way below predictions, i.e. a' negative surge', with an hour or so to go before HW. I guess things could be different tomorrow when the wind has gone NW, if it's still howling.
Our pal Simon Keeling has been sounding off loudly this morning about mis-reporting / sensationalsim of the weather. www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=939
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The tidal predictions for West Mersea to day are 5.65 metres, and with just half an hour to go, I am doubtful it will even get to 4 metres. Simon Keeling seems to have got things right. I don't understand why if the tide is much lower than predicted now, there are those that are talking about flooding tonight. I never have had much respect for the Environment Agency, and this seems to enhance my disrespect for them.
 
DavidofMersea said:
The tidal predictions for West Mersea to day are 5.65 metres, and with just half an hour to go, I am doubtful it will even get to 4 metres. Simon Keeling seems to have got things right. I don't understand why if the tide is much lower than predicted now, there are those that are talking about flooding tonight. I never have had much respect for the Environment Agency, and this seems to enhance my disrespect for them.
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A strong S Westerly will stop the tide making prediction
Harwich is -78m below prediction
 
Cantata said:
Current levels in the southern part of the Thames estuary are actually way below predictions, i.e. a' negative surge', with an hour or so to go before HW. I guess things could be different tomorrow when the wind has gone NW, if it's still howling.
Our pal Simon Keeling has been sounding off loudly this morning about mis-reporting / sensationalsim of the weather. www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=939
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This lunchtime's -ve surge is predicted -see the chart above. If tonight's +ve prediction also happens then there will be some severe flooding.

There seems to be some confusion on here about tidal predictions. My tide table has predictions in it based on the positions of the sun and the moon. On to that you add the near-real-time surge prediction. So if the tide table says 5.3m and the surge prediction is -1m then expect 4.3m. About right for just now I would say looking out of the window. If tonight the tide table says 5.3m then with the predicted surge expect in the order of 6.6m or more.

Parts of Jaywick are being evacuated (no comment!).
 
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