Dropping pound . Is it time to quit the Euro Med

Re: ThanksLemain

Your IFA was right (as you have found) though very late in the day /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif Cash is good today but watch for hyper-inflation. Most of the world's experts are talking about deflation but, as I explain in my blog (below) they are wrong.

If you see inflation starting then cash will not be a good idea. The two obvious choices are Government inflation linked bonds or gold. Meanwhile, cash is fine, relax.
 
Re: ThanksLemain

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the world's experts are talking about deflation but, as I explain in my blog (below) they are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not taking ourselves a bit too seriously?
Did you drive taxis in a previous life? /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif
 
Re: ThanksLemain

[ QUOTE ]

Not taking ourselves a bit too seriously?

[/ QUOTE ]If you were to go back through all the posts I have made about the impending financial crisis since 2003, with jeers of derision from all quarters... "Property only ever goes up" "There won't be any more recessions" you would see that I have been consistently on target. I forecast this crisis and sold my house, all of my stocks and shares, and went to live on a yacht in 2004.

In 2004 they laughed.

In 2008 I am laughing.

Yes, I take this seriously, and so should you if you don't want to take up taxi driving as a living.
 
Re: ThanksLemain

[ QUOTE ]

you would see that I have been consistently on target.


[/ QUOTE ]

Except of course, when it comes to currencies.
And the €uro in particular, where you have been, and continue to be consistently wrong. (Yes, I have read your past post and even your blog).
 
Re: ThanksLemain

[ QUOTE ]
Except of course, when it comes to currencies.
And the €uro in particular, where you have been, and continue to be consistently wrong. (Yes, I have read your past post and even your blog).

[/ QUOTE ]I think you'll find that it is all going in the direction I forecast -- albeit my timing was off. Most others have been totally wrong in timing and direction.

The proof of the pudding....a lot of people are now following my blog to get an idea of direction.
 
I am not the 'disgusted Tunbridge Wells' but probably like him or her,I did not realise there were still those who consider the Euro as an economic measure. It is clearly accepted, and admitted by Brussels that it is an entirely Political instrument, intended to politicaly bind members to the decrees of the EU.
I keep my boat in the Med. and accept the ups and downs of the strength of the £, so no more wingeing (not heard when it was 1.47) and moaning, a small price to pay for what is left (after the liberal elite has gaily, some of them, given away our soverienty to a bunch of unelected politicians) of our green and once pleasant land, the same liberal/newlabour who hypocriticaly put wreaths on the cenotaph to those who would have cheerfully shot them had they known their sacrifice would be so blatently ignored a couple of generations later.
 
Timing is everything. I'm afraid it doesn't take a genius to say that there will be bull runs and bear crashes in the worlds' stock markets, that currencies will fluctuate and that property prices will fluctuate. If you sold up in 04 then you missed out on 3 years growth in stocks and property. Now, I wouldn't say that you were wrong to do so, but you've hardly maximised your profit. Having read a great many books about successful traders [unfortunately, not much of it rubbed off], I've come to the conclusion that most of them don't aim to enter/exit at the bottom or top of any particular market and the all wait for an established trend to become obvious. The problem with investing now is in which companies exactly?which ones are goint to survive. A very successful trader in the early 20th century said that no stock is either too expensive to buy or too cheap to sell (he was talking about shorting there].
ANYWAY, I predict that stock markets will recover, the pound will strengthen again and the world economy will enter a period of sustained growth.....I just have no idea when. This has nothing to do with the original question..
Cat-Man-Do, I'd head back out to the Caribbean and invest in rum
 
I was thinking the same regarding the growth in property values between 2004 and 2007, was in a position where I bought a house in 2005 and had to sell it in 2007 (wish I could say it was planned on my part, but it was not - circumstances forced me into it) I made a good profit on the deal and was thankful for it.
 
I cannot see anything thats hapening in the UK at the moment that will lead to a strengthening of the pound against the euro.
On the contrary, I foresee only more and accelerating bad news in 2009 - thats unlikely to lead any foreign investors to want to be in sterling. Even when the world recession is over UK plc will still be paying dearly for GB's borrowing. I reckon the £ will fall to well below parity in te New Year.
Interest rates on savings now are pitifull and there is a real danger in holding cash when hyperinflation takes hold in 18 -24 months time
I've got some cash in a number of fixed interest bonds paying a decent rate of return that mature during the next two years. Late in 2009 we plan to buy repossesed property at auction, there are some amazing bargains to be had already, but I think things in the property market are going to get far worse before it gets better and 2009 will be the crunch time as redundancies kick in.
We looked at a 12 month old repossed flat in immaculate condition, sold new 12 months ago for £175000, sold at auction last month for £105k, I reckon it will go down to £80k or so.
I'm going to keep out of the stock market, my track record there is not very good
 
I think you are right with this, except that Weimar-republic style hyperinflation is only a risk, a nasty bout of inflation (as Lemain predicts) is more likely. Either way, holding ££ savings accounts won't be clever.

Don't leave it too long to make your move into property, though.

It will be interesting to return to this thread next Christmas and see who made the best guesses.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are right with this, except that Weimar-republic style hyperinflation is only a risk, a nasty bout of inflation (as Lemain predicts) is more likely.

[/ QUOTE ] I have revised my opinion about the short-term outlook for Sterling and some other info at http://davidscompass.blogspot.com

[ QUOTE ]
Don't leave it too long to make your move into property, though.

[/ QUOTE ] Don't move until AFTER the Dead Cat Bounce. There may be another downturn after the apparent bottom. This depression will be like nothing anyone ever imagined. Forget all past experience -- this is new.

[ QUOTE ]
It will be interesting to return to this thread next Christmas and see who made the best guesses.

[/ QUOTE ]The happiest bunnies will be the ones in cash right now and who can duck and dive and weave as this disaster takes place over the next decade.
 
It is new, it is different. Never before in the history of man has there been such leverage. Trade in some assets is (was) between ten and one hundred times the underlying asset!! It's insanity -- a con trick. The asset bubbles that created together with some unusual factors combining led to the loss of confidence -- the first domino fell and the rest is becoming history.
 
Re: ThanksLemain

I think you'll find that it is all going in the direction I forecast -- albeit my timing was off. Most others have been totally wrong in timing and direction
-________________________________________________________________-

Did you nick that quote from the met office? /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Or perhaps Eric Morecome..................... I am playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
 
Re: ThanksLemain

/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif I think that the best we can hope for in financial forecasting at the moment is a sense of direction. Hence the name of my blog -- David's Compass http://davidscompass.blogspot.com
 
Re: ThanksLemain

[ QUOTE ]
:) I think that the best we can hope for in financial forecasting at the moment is a sense of direction.

[/ QUOTE ]


If the worlds bankers, governments and economists have no idea, what hope has the mere mortal got.

I stopped buying property in 2004, and was so sure that the time had come, I actually sold one I had bought to improve and sell on, at a small loss. With hindsight, I was possibly a couple of years premature but better that than too late.

There was no doubt that this "bust" was coming, and I guess the longer it took to arrive, the bigger it was always going to be.

It's all very well having the base rate at 2%, but if the banks wont lend money or, when they do, they dont pass on the cut, it doesnt really make a blind bit of difference to the economy, and there is certainly no sense in reducing it further.

Browns biggest mistake, (recent), was to give the banks billions without any means of forcing them to pass it on. It's all very well "expecting" and "exerting pressure", but without legal force, the government will continue to p!ss into the wind.

The hope is that banks need to make profits and can only do this by lending money, so they will take this year as an opportunity to reveal, in their accounts, all those problems they have been hiding for years, then get back to some kind of norm next year.

In a sense, I'm glad to have the problem of dealing with the credit crunch..... a year ago, I was not necessarily expecting to be here now.... so every cloud and all that /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Richard
 
Re: ThanksLemain

Every cloud has a silver lining.

With the bendytoy financial results, dehler going bust, credit crunch etc. for those that can weather the storm theres going to be fewer boats clogging marinas and anchorages, perhaps even cheaper marina berths.

Maybe even fewer bankers in powerboats too. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
 
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