AntarcticPilot
Well-known member
The statistical question of the number of objects of a population that you will encounter on a particular track is one of great interest to the Whale and cetacean community when trying to estimate the size of the population of a particular species of whale or dolphin. Unfortunately, there isn't a really good statistical answer, which explains why you see vastly varying estimates of the size of the population of the various cetacean species as the assumptions you make change the answer a lot. There are also issues such as the distribution being patchy, which is an issue for containers too - a single incident might dump a hundred containers in one bit of sea, and of course, container ships follow well marked sea-lanes.In particle physics (IIRC from 50+ years ago) there is a concept of a nucleus cross-section within which a travelling sub-atomic particle may intercept the nucleus. With extreme exaggeration the unit is called the "barn". wikipedia/Barn_(unit)
There must be a similar cross-section in the sea that a yacht may collide with a floating object. This will be of the order of 10m wide or less. So to sail through 120,000 sq km of sea you would have to have a track of 12,000,000 miles I think - but please check!