Cherbourg Scuttlebutt September 2018

Sadly, I will bailout.
If the weather predictions are forthcoming I fancy my chances even less going round St Albans head, and the needles passage than mid channel.
However, I don't mind having a bash somewhere on the south coast that is driveable with B&b's close by.
 
In case it wasn’t clear, the three of us in Ariam plan to be at the Folly on Saturday. Not sure about Friday in Cowes but assume not. Depending on the weather reality we’ll either slip across to Southampton under a scrap of canvas on Sunday, or sit tight on the Folly pontoons; we do all have Monday booked off work.

Pete
 
I too will bail. Shame but sensible. Also getting off and back on the pontoon would be a wee bit tricky so my whole weekend has now been redesigned. Have fun everyone !
 
Morning ECMWF output now out and it now shows the eye of the depression moving in a more northerly direction up the Irish Sea as opposed to yesterday's predictions of a track straight along the English South Coast. Still orrible for X-Channel, but what we're looking at is a rainy Sat evening, drizzle on Sunday am and blustery winds probably not exceeding 20kts. Subject to no forecast change this is just Old Blighty in September - nothing worse :)
 
We're out too unfortunately. Wind, tide times (and forecast rain!) all stack up against us trogging across Christchurch Bay :(. Here's hoping we make it next year :encouragement:.
 
dom said:
Morning ECMWF output now out and it now shows the eye of the depression moving in a more northerly direction up the Irish Sea as opposed to yesterday's predictions of a track straight along the English South Coast. Still orrible for X-Channel, but what we're looking at is a rainy Sat evening, drizzle on Sunday am and blustery winds probably not exceeding 20kts. Subject to no forecast change this is just Old Blighty in September - nothing worse :)
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But the GFS (as shown by Windy.com and Weatheronline) is still showing 50 knots mid channel for mid day on Sunday. Are they still using the old models? :confused:
 
DJE said:
But the GFS (as shown by Windy.com and Weatheronline) is still showing 50 knots mid channel for mid day on Sunday. Are they still using the old models? :confused:
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You're right, but for some reason the GFS 06Z run this morning has not appeared so what you're almost certainly seeing is the 00Z run from last night. Edit: just out and still showing c.40kts, which while lower than before is still blowy! Sunday is I guess still 'Day 5' for these forecasts so prob a few twists and turns to come :)
 
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Subject to being overruled by my crew, I will aim to be at East Cowes for Friday evening and at the Folly on Saturday.

Even given the withdrawals above (sorry that we may not be seeing any of the Weymouth/Portland crowd this year), we could still be 10 boats and around 20 people on both Friday eve (East Cowes) and Saturday (Folly). So I will contact both and let them know to expect us.
 
Damn it :( I'm bringing a boat back from SIBS to Portland, was supposed to be on Mon / Tues but I might have to do it on Saturday now.

Going to play it by ear and see how things pan out. Hopefully I'll be able to join the party somewhere along the way. We shall see...
 
Dabchick with two is aiming for the folly on Sat and can sit tight for Sunday. Not sure about Fri, depends on how quickly the winds for Thurs night into Fri clear through.
 
chubby said:
Dabchick with two is aiming for the folly on Sat and can sit tight for Sunday. Not sure about Fri, depends on how quickly the winds for Thurs night into Fri clear through.
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I'm also wary about the winds tomorrow. Planning to buy beer before departure and don't want to break it if its gale-against-tide outside Cowes :)
 
I am in two minds about the Folly Saturday, It will well depend on how work goes tomorrow, and if I want to complete the showerroom or wish not to look at a job not being done. Who needs a 3rd shower anyway.

SWMBO appears to be keen that I go sailing, wonder what she had planned, probably a just a quiet weekend without me moaning and making a mess.

Mike
 
dom said:
I'm also wary about the winds tomorrow. Planning to buy beer before departure and don't want to break it if its gale-against-tide outside Cowes :)
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You must have been a boy scout - be prepared. My advice is to use cans not bottles as they do not break, then you might only spill a little.

Well I shall be going to E Cowes and the Folly. Having sailed so far, the breeze forecast will not stop me coming. Windy seems to point to being not too bad in the Solent compared to open water. The waves will be minimal due to the direction off the shore. Should be a good sail under a reduced rig, even though it is a very short distance by my standards.
 
Concerto said:
You must have been a boy scout - be prepared. My advice is to use cans not bottles as they do not break, then you might only spill a little.

Well I shall be going to E Cowes and the Folly. Having sailed so far, the breeze forecast will not stop me coming. Windy seems to point to being not too bad in the Solent compared to open water. The waves will be minimal due to the direction off the shore. Should be a good sail under a reduced rig, even though it is a very short distance by my standards.
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Do not underestimate the dreaded "Solent Chop"!!! ;)
 
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