Cherbourg Scuttlebutt September 2018

[dom]

is there a time for a contingency plan, rather than just stay at home, the refugees could gather in say Yarmouth or the Folly, would be a shame to be nearby but not meet up?

Propose we check the early forecast model run which shld be complete by t/m am c.0930. If GFS - XC uses this - is preponderant, then, sadly, yes time to think contingency.

Always mindful that some like Concerto have already sailed a long way. They need a true Southern welcome wherever that may be

 

[Angele]

Is anyone already over the other side or planning to cross tomorrow (Wednesday)?

 

[RadiumRob]

No, we're currently holding out for a dash across on Friday but are not terribly optimistic at this stage. Is there any scope for a week/two week postponement? The tides will be more interesting next weekend but at least they're predictable.

 

[Angele]

No, we're currently holding out for a dash across on Friday but are not terribly optimistic at this stage. Is there any scope for a week/two week postponement? The tides will be more interesting next weekend but at least they're predictable.

Trouble is that everyone has made arrangements for it to be this weekend. I’m not confident that we can come up with an alternative date at short notice that all can attend.

I quite like Chubby’s suggestion. It is a while since I was last at The Folly.

Shall we all see what the forecasts say in the morning?

 

[chubby]

The forecasts look contradictory:

on SWIS the numerical figures which I presume are model based are horrific for sunday,50 to 70 knots or there about yet the text planning outlook gives W NW 4-5?

The ECMWF which is a different model from GFS shows a seriously tight looking depression over the channel on sunday.


I don't have to be at work till Tuesday but do have to be at home mon evening but am wary about getting over and not back and even the ferry might not be fun ( did a post say fully booked anyway?) and may be cancelled?


If we did have a contingency plan it would be great to still meet up and a shame to be scattered amongst ports only a few miles apart. Happy with anywhere in the Solent, up a sheltered river? Medina and the folly? Beaulieu river? Lymington town quay is always sheltered but might not accommodate us all? Yarmouth? any suggestions if we doneed a fall back?

 

[Balbas]

Don't know how reliable it is (I've found it pretty good to be fair) - passageweather was predicting 50kts+ and 8-10m seas for Sunday noon. Which would be exciting.

If you're all holed up on the south coast somewhere I *may* try to make the trip to come and say hello. Although if the forecast is correct, land travel won't b fun either!

 

[Angele]

Here is a proposal.

We cancel Cherbourg and meet up at the Folly on Saturday afternoon/evening instead. There should be plenty of space for berthing and I'm sure they could find space for 30 odd people in the pub, especially if the weather is crap.

And, if anyone doesn't want to sail over, they can always get the Red Jet to Cowes

Unless anyone violently objects, I will cancel the restaurant when they open tomorrow.

Everyone in agreement?

 

[RadiumRob]

Given the likely depleted numbers it seems fair to cancel the Cherbourg reservations.

We will review the forecasts over the coming days to see whether or not a trip to the Solent is feasible. Hope to join you all there on Saturday.

 

[Angele]

I've emailed all those for whom I have email addresses.

Hopefully Concerto is still in Ocean Village and not halfway across the Channel.....

I think we are on plan C now.

 

[wizard]

Given the likely depleted numbers it seems fair to cancel the Cherbourg reservations.

We will review the forecasts over the coming days to see whether or not a trip to the Solent is feasible. Hope to join you all there on Saturday.

Ditto for me comng from Portland also. The red jet is a great idea too.

 

[prv]

Here is a proposal.

We cancel Cherbourg and meet up at the Folly on Saturday afternoon/evening instead. There should be plenty of space for berthing and I'm sure they could find space for 30 odd people in the pub, especially if the weather is crap.

Disappointing but probably for the best. Even if Friday itself did drop off enough to be doable, I'd be concerned about getting trapped there by that big lump currently sitting on Sunday.

Is it worth giving the pub a quick heads-up? We might think "oh, nobody will be there if the weather's crap" but they might think the same and understaff the bar and kitchen accordingly. Might even get a chunk of pontoon set aside?

Thanks for taking the initiative, anyway.

Pete

 

[dom]

Here is a proposal.

We cancel Cherbourg and meet up at the Folly on Saturday afternoon/evening instead. There should be plenty of space for berthing and I'm sure they could find space for 30 odd people in the pub, especially if the weather is crap.

And, if anyone doesn't want to sail over, they can always get the Red Jet to Cowes

Unless anyone violently objects, I will cancel the restaurant when they open tomorrow.

Everyone in agreement?

Friday looks good to go once that cold front is through, but with the forecasts converging on the possibility of a full-blown storm on Sunday, I think this is an excellent compromise.

Edit: also gives fair notice to the restaurant which is only right given how accommodating they are to us.

 

[Angele]

Is it worth giving the pub a quick heads-up? We might think "oh, nobody will be there if the weather's crap" but they might think the same and understaff the bar and kitchen accordingly. Might even get a chunk of pontoon set aside?

Thanks for taking the initiative, anyway.

Pete

Good idea. Once I have an idea of the revised numbers I'll give them a call.

 

[Concerto]

Hopefully Concerto is still in Ocean Village and not halfway across the Channel.....

Nope, still in Ocean Village as I went to the boat show today.

I understand Dom's comment about the wave formations and that many have to be back for work on Monday. However I was using Cherbourg as a start of a trip along the French coast back to Calais. Looking at the Windy forecast I can understand the change of venue. The forecast for Monday looks OK to go to Cherbourg, so I plan to do it even with a lively sea state. Not so happy having to beat along part of the French coast as I had a beat to get to the Solent! That will teach me not to go cruising late in the season.

Yes I will join you at the Jolly Sailor.

 

[Angele]

Nope, still in Ocean Village as I went to the boat show today.

Phew!

Yes I will join you at the Jolly Sailor.

Although the Jolly Sailor is good (I'm assuming you are thinking of the one on the Hamble near Bursledon), you might be a little lonely there. My suggestion is over on the IoW.

Looking forward to meeting you.

 

[Tranona]

Generally in agreement to cancel but might i suggest East Cowes which we have used before. The Lifeboat pub is OK and walking distance from berths plus easier for those coming by ferry.

Also Friday night would be better as if you come by boat and stay over to Sunday may be stuck there until late Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Angele]

Generally in agreement to cancel but might i suggest East Cowes which we have used before. The Lifeboat pub is OK and walking distance from berths plus easier for those coming by ferry.

Also Friday night would be better as if you come by boat and stay over to Sunday may be stuck there until late Monday or Tuesday.

We could do both! Lifeboat on Friday, Folly on Saturday. People can join whenever suits and bail out when they wish.

Maybe even a procession up the Medina, dipping our scuttlebutt burgee as we pass the chain ferry. (That last bit isn’t a serious proposal).

I don’t mind being stormbound on the Folly mid river pontoons as I don’t have to be back at work until Tuesday. It’ll bring back memories of avoiding the crap weather over the August Bank Holiday weekend in Yarmouth!

 

[Concerto]

Although the Jolly Sailor is good (I'm assuming you are thinking of the one on the Hamble near Bursledon), you might be a little lonely there. My suggestion is over on the IoW.

Looking forward to meeting you.

Sorry my mistake as I have never visited either. I did go up the Medina last year to the pontoons but did not visit the pub as I met up with another Westerly owner I know for a long chin wag.

See you all on Friday.

 

[DJE]

Sue has been saying for a couple of days there's no way we're crossing the channel on that forecast. East Cowes on Friday sounds like fun but we will probably go home on Saturday and put a few extra lines on. We could dash back to Portsmouth under storm jib on Sunday but getting back on the mooring and the dinghy trip ashore would both be dangerous if the forecast is correct.

 

[Bobc]

I'm going to bail I'm afraid chaps. There's a beer festival on at my local pub, so I'll get wet on the inside there.

Hopefully see you all at some point next year.

Bob