Cherbourg Scuttlebutt September 2018

Windfinder not encouraging, especially for the other side on Saturday/Sunday then northerlies for Monday and Tuesday
 
Tranona said:
Windfinder not encouraging, especially for the other side on Saturday/Sunday then northerlies for Monday and Tuesday
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Was just thinking the same; very unstable wrt time and model sets, principally GFS and EMWF this far out. Be interesting to see tomorrow morning’s run as hopefully we will see some convergence and are by then just in range of other higher res models. Some nasty possibilities in the mix, but also some fab ones; let’s hope!
 
The Countryfile forecast for the week showed a similar pattern. The main feature is a depression tracking east in the later part of the week. However these things have a habit of swinging north to give our Scottish friends the benefit and leaving the channel alone.

More in hope than expectation!
 
KREW2 said:
Radium Rob and myself were planning to leave on Thursday at 16,00 for St Vaast. If the forecast on here https://www.passageweather.com/ doesn't improve for 00.00 Friday I will ditch that plan, and hope for a window to go straight to Cherbourg on Friday.
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Also looking through the morning run of GFS and ECMWF. You’re right, looks like a line of depressions is following the eastbound shipping lane. Possibilities still range from no-sail to balmy depending on their timing :ambivalence:

At least the outward-bound picture should come into clearer relief by tomorrow morning.

Edit: the radio-net remains Ch77.
 
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dom said:
Also looking through the morning run of GFS and ECMWF. You’re right, looks like a line of depressions is following the eastbound shipping lane. Possibilities still range from no-sail to balmy depending on their timing :ambivalence:

At least the outward-bound picture should come into clearer relief by tomorrow morning.

Edit: as Sailorman noted the radio-net remains Ch67.
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do you mean 77 not 67? wouldn't amuse the CG stand at SIBS!
 
On current forecasts Friday looks like the Saturday of the recent Bank Holiday weekend when we and a lot of other boats had a great crossing on a brief ridge between fast-moving depressions. But getting back could be a bit more problematic this weekend.
 
If you look on Windy.com it forcasts a force 4/5 from the west on friday, and sunday/monday a breeze from the southerly directions - however it seems to change everytime I look so the computer models are really not sure? XC wind is inconsistent post w/end but my experience is Windy.com is more often correct. I 'hope' to cross friday but will be checking weather. What is the Suttlebutt flag and can I obtain one?
 
Jemini said:
If you look on Windy.com it forcasts a force 4/5 from the west on friday, and sunday/monday a breeze from the southerly directions - however it seems to change everytime I look so the computer models are really not sure? XC wind is inconsistent post w/end but my experience is Windy.com is more often correct. I 'hope' to cross friday but will be checking weather. What is the Suttlebutt flag and can I obtain one?
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Quick point: these models are raw numerical output with no intervention by professional forecasters. There are many of these models around: GFS, ECMWF, ICON, NWW, NEMS, etc. Most the front-end systems simply display this data in their chosen format: XC Weather, Windguru, PassageWeather, etc. are all GFS which is the most popular by far. Windy has a choice of four models including GFS. If you click on Windy and select GFS this should line up with other GFS based forecasts like XC. I know they get a hard time on here but I always think the forecasts from our own MetOffice should be most closely watched. It is for example today warning of 50-60mph winds from the tail of Storm Helene.
 
XC Weather and the Met Office are exactly 180' apart for parts of Monday at the moment. I will be singlehanding so am weather watching and will decide on Wednesday if yes or no. Very much hoping yes :).
 
Standing by on Ch77 :encouragement:

Our plan so far is leaving Poole Thursday night (to get the bridge opening and tide out), then anchor in Studland for an 05:00 departure, then leaving Cherbourg 06:00 Sunday to come back. Having just looked at Windyty I reckon it has given us the best possible wind for both ways. I won't look again on the basis that if I can't see it then it hasn't changed :)
 
Jungle Jim said:
Standing by on Ch77 :encouragement:

Our plan so far is leaving Poole Thursday night (to get the bridge opening and tide out), then anchor in Studland for an 05:00 departure, then leaving Cherbourg 06:00 Sunday to come back. Having just looked at Windyty I reckon it has given us the best possible wind for both ways. I won't look again on the basis that if I can't see it then it hasn't changed :)
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Sadly there's no hope of me joining the Cherbourg run (if anyone is invited, I don't know, I've presumed!) but I've been looking at a bit of coastal cruising this weekend instead. The weather for Sunday looks 'interesting' according to passageweather! 40-45kts forecast for the channel on Sunday...
 
Balbas said:
Sadly there's no hope of me joining the Cherbourg run (if anyone is invited, I don't know, I've presumed!) but I've been looking at a bit of coastal cruising this weekend instead. The weather for Sunday looks 'interesting' according to passageweather! 40-45kts forecast for the channel on Sunday...
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Open to all but you need to log on here:- http://fawthrop.me.uk/Cherbourg/viewCherbourgCruise.php

Yes Sunday is looking a bit lively on some forecasts:-
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CPD said:
XC Weather and the Met Office are exactly 180' apart for parts of Monday at the moment. I will be singlehanding so am weather watching and will decide on Wednesday if yes or no. Very much hoping yes :).
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If there is little agreement then it is unpredictable at the moment. Wednesday is better to decide. As a singlehanded I also will keep an eye on things.
 
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