"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

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PowerYachtBlog

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So the mast snapped in the tornado and this is currently assumed to have caused the sinking - how I am not sure whether it holed the boat or whether the weight of it made it list too far over. The investigation will know doubt provide the full information.

Very sad that the owner's 18 year old daughter is one of the six missing.
According to Italian media now, no snapped mast and or punctured hull. All the more mysterious.
 

Sticky Fingers

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But lowered keel is designed for when masses of sail is hoisted. At anchor no sail is hoisted.
True for sure; all speculation but if the waterspout / wind event was severe enough to knock the boat down to >90 degrees heel as reported somewhere (source TBC) then the benefit of the full keel might have been welcome. Just a thought.
 

ylop

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Tragic. The power of nature.....

From the links, as one would expect, a local investigation has started. As the yacht was Brit flagged and has Brits onboard, both criteria for a Marine Accident Investigation Branch enquiry have been met. Either either, or in this case, both. They are super professional and highly regarded. The report will take time but when it is released, the normally publish causes and preventative action to help other vessels.
Your confidence in the MAIB is a little greater than mine. They will likely identify significant contributing factors - that will help interested parties know what went wrong and how it might be mitigated. However their ability to translate those into realistic recommendations/actions that actually stop future deaths is questionable. Eg, if she flooded due to open doors/hatches/windows the easy solution is obvious… but is it realistic at anchor in conditions where nobody is expecting to get knocked down? If the keel was retracted the advice is obvious, but is it realistic to restrict the range of anchorages or even safer to do so?

I suspect if any of us were told a vessel of this size was knocked down under bare poles in the med we would be a bit surprised, at anchor even more so. To be told it resulted in a total loss of the ship within seconds would be more surprising again. And to be told there was a tall ship very nearby that came through the same weather pretty much unscathed would be even more unbelievable. But I don’t recall the MAIB ever saying “this mostly seems like incredibly bad luck” OR “with hindsight these factors caused it but it’s unlikely in similar circumstances that any reasonable skipper/owner would have for seen it and acted differently”.
They do not prosecute. If there is a case of negligence then the MCA enforcement Unit takes responsibility for prosecutions.
Do the MCA prosecute British vessels when in someone else’s physical jurisdiction? I was expecting that any wrongdoing (and there may well be nothing criminal) would be pursued by the Italians?
 

B27

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It's not the first seaworthy, ocean-going ship to be sunk by a tornado.
I'm not sure there's much merit in discussing blame.
 

Laser310

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I can't see that this has been posted here, if so I apologise.

Captain of Bayesian rescue boat describes 'disaster'

Knockdown leading to downflooding..., one wouldn't guess that people had time to launch a liferaft...

So maybe the life raft deployed automatically, and people in the water found it and climbed in.

but even that is hard to imagine; all 15 survivors found the liferaft.., in the dark?

If it was still windy the empty raft would just have blown away - they have bags that fill with water to stabilize them, but still I would have guessed it would blow to far to swim to.

It will be interesting to learn how this part of the tragedy unfolded
 

Mark-1

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Knockdown leading to downflooding..., one wouldn't guess that people had time to launch a liferaft...

So maybe the life raft deployed automatically, and people in the water found it and climbed in.

but even that is hard to imagine; all 15 survivors found the liferaft.., in the dark?

If it was still windy the empty raft would just have blown away - they have bags that fill with water to stabilize them, but still I would have guessed it would blow to far to swim to.

It will be interesting to learn how this part of the tragedy unfolded

There was a life raft and people did get onto it. So that did happen.

Witnesses say it was knocked down.

As someone else says, not sure there's much of a lesson to learn here. Nobody in hot areas is going to keep hatches closed on the off chance of a tornado and presumably lifting keels are kept up at anchor for very good reasons. Just a freak accident.
 

mjcoon

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I do not know specifically this yacht, but several of similar size have a lifting center board, not ballasted keel, in which case the variation in stability up/down would be marginal.
I remember explaining to my Mother that my dinghy had a wooden centreboard, not a keel, that most definitely did not increase its stability, quite the opposite. Not that she was ever going to put foot in it!
 

zoidberg

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There will be lots of people chuntering about 'Metacentric Height, Angle of Vanishing Stability, Gz Curves, Righting Moment' and so on. Once the dust settles a bit, the question arises 'What can WE learn from this?'

Yachting Monthly did a useful article on this dull stuff: Right Way Up

Eyes glaze over when nerds start bandying around some of the dull Stability terms, but it DOES matter to the likes of us.

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One important thing many of us don't properly hoist in is that 'stuff' mounted onto the boat which is above the calculated/designed Centre of Buoyancy - which shifts about with heel - and Centre of Gravity reduces the boat's capacity to roll right back up again. Most take that for granted.

Most shouldn't....

Hang on a pair of furling headsails, a radar halfway up the mast, a stern gantry with bimini and PV panels and a 6-person liferaft on the coachroof - and you've probably thrown away half of your boat's Reserve of Stability. Or more.

Then there's 'in-mast mainsail furling'.....

Many will simply 'wing it', thinking others have done the same and been all right. Or, 'This boat has been all right. Never a worrying moment....'

The skipper and owners of the 'Maria Asumpta' probably thought their provisions were just fine.... as did others.
 
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Chiara’s slave

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Of course, the C32 will sink at 78 degrees unless you’re sailing with the washboards in and the hatch closed, I’ve been on board one at less heel than that, and watched in horror as the green stuff rushed down the hatch. The Bavaria, perhaps not.
 

Seadawg33

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My guess is that lightning struck the mast in addition to the boat being tilted on it's side. The voltage blew a hole through the bottom of the boat. The boat settled o. Her bottom the puncture on her bottom cannot be seen.

This guess is based on no fact, science, or evidence.
 

Dogone

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My guess is that lightning struck the mast in addition to the boat being tilted on it's side. The voltage blew a hole through the bottom of the boat. The boat settled o. Her bottom the puncture on her bottom cannot be seen.

This guess is based on no fact, science, or evidence.
Nope. They left all hatches and companionways open. They sank from the water entering in an exceptional knock down. That’s my baseless interpretation.

The moral of the story is to shut your portholes/portlights/hatches/companionways if in remotely stormy weather. At least that’s my take-away.
 

Laser310

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Re water ingress through deck openings: temperatures were above 30°C, haven't this sort of boats air conditioning on most of the time, in particular at night?
i agree - AC on and boat mostly closed up, probably. It wasn't just hot, it was humid too.

these boats don't have deck hatches and companionways like normal boats.

they do have enormous windows and sliding glass doors, that are probably going to blow out pretty quickly when submerged
 

Concerto

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Just been reading a report that contained the following comment.

"The captain of a nearby boat told Reuters that when the storm hit he had turned the engine on to keep control of the vessel and avoid a collision with the Bayesian.

“We managed to keep the ship in position and after the storm was over, we noticed that the ship behind us was gone,” Karsten Borner told journalists. The other boat “went flat on the water, and then down,” he added.

He said his crew then found some of the survivors on a life raft – including three who were seriously injured, and a baby girl and her mother – and took them on board before the coast guard picked them up."


Link to quote British Tech Entrepreneur Among Missing After Superyacht Sinks Off Sicily

This might confirm so of the comments already made in this very sad thread.
 
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