Average speed to calculate a long trip

I don't do many multiday trips, but the ones I have done I've never planned down to the level of a specific eta. I take the view that it takes what it takes - whatever you plan. As someone cleverer than me once said "no plan survives contact with the enemy." I sail for pleasure and "clock watching" and pleasure are mutually exclusive. Yes - I'll look at gaining advantage of tides but whatever I may hope to do - if the wind don't blow the ship won't go - so I just make the best of it.
 
Yes - I'll look at gaining advantage of tides but whatever I may hope to do - if the wind don't blow the ship won't go - so I just make the best of it.

The OP is planning a 300 mile passage across a featureless, tideless piece of the Mediterranean Sea, not a short coastal passage in tidal waters.

Perfectly possible to plan to a relatively high degree of accuracy if you are prepared to use the engine to maintain your planned average speed. Did essentially the same passage a few years ago and it can be really boring so sensible to get it over as quickly as possible consistent with maximising comfort and minimising fuel consumption.
 
It all depends on the wind unless you're planning to use your engine to keep to some pre planned (probably unnecessary) schedule. At the moment, according to pocket grib app, strong winds from the north but backing round to south by Wednesday. Generally flukey. Keep an eye on the forecast and set of when favourable so you can sail which is much more pleasant.
 
When I plan for trips like this I usually work out departure times and ETA when i know what the weather is doing, then I try to plan arrival at midday, that way if you are a bit slower you will still be there in daylight, equally if you are a bit quicker you don't have to make a night approach, or have to stand off waiting for the sun to come up.

I would have thought that given favorable conditions that 5 knots would be more realistic for 33'

Either way happy sailing and enjoy the stars
 
Its much better to plan at 4 knots and then do 5 than the other way around......

I agree

on a transatlantic we pegged 7knots but averaged 7.5 with a speed range 3.9-13.8knots.

Another atlantic trip we pegged 7.5 and got 6knots average with a speed range of 3.2-8.5knots in a bigger faster boat. Due to the weather it was a much slower crossing.

I now now plan for a slower speed because if you are sailing like the wind blows you can always stop and anchor on arrival and motor in during daylight if you are ahead of your time.

Another transatlantic a skipper planned for 8.5 knots and provisioned for 2 weeks at sea and we were out for 4 weeks!! Some serious mutinious talk I seem to recall as well as finding the skipper consumed 12 bottles of the owners red wine and was now on spirits. That was some trip.
 
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On my four 'cautious' Biscay crossings - I have chosen lighter wind conditions, I have averaged about 100nM / 24hrs.
My boat isn't fast and it takes a good 5 to get it going, I like it that was as I'm never in a rush to get anywhere.
The next time I go I might cross with a bit more wind behind me to experience a faster trip. :)
 
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