Anyone Flooded?

Colvic Watson said:
Alongside the sign by your front door saying "no cold callers please" you should have one that says "no flood warnings please". It would stop them wasting their valuable time on someone who knows better, perhaps consider it as an act of public service?
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Well clearly I, and others, did know better. You only have to read this thread to see that many people doubted there was going to be a flood, my knowledge is nothing special. Also getting it wrong too often is going to stop people listening to the EA, and if there really is a flood few people will take action. Remember December 2013? and again now
 
franksingleton said:
Hardly. It was near enough. Having said that, the weather situation was not the optimal 1953 situation. The worst case is a strong SW wind across the Atlantic creating a wind driven bulge in sea levels. Then the deep low causing the winds to pass North of the UK in time with the lunar tidal bulge so raising water levels. One hPa fall in pressure equates to a one cm increase in sea levels so that a low of 970 hPa would raise sea levels by about 43 cm. Then the low carrying on NE'wards to create the NW'ly that is the final straw.

As I said earlier, the timing of the bulge due the surge relative to the astronomical tidal bulge is usually critical. There are far more surges than we ever hear about. They just do not occur with big tides. They do, of course, provide data to check and refine the surge models.
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Thank you Frank, for bringing your considerable wisdom and knowledge to this discussion. I have no doubts regarding the value of the predictions made by you or your former colleagues, having watched with great interest the dramatic improvements over the past 50 years. What a difference today's forecasting capabilities would have made in 1953!

However, probably because of my age, I have increasing difficulty in understanding the way in which professional advice from people like yourself is used by the media ( who want a story, and fear always sells) and "authorities". This is often perceived as risk aversion, and that may have a lot to do with it but, it seems to me that these authorities rarely weigh the relative risks of the options available. I wonder, in this case, whether those encouraging evacuation did a best estimate evaluation of the risk of staying at home and a similar assessment of evacuation and compared the two.

Peter.
 
DavidofMersea said:
But there was no low this time, and everybody (except the EA) knows that flooding is most unlikely unless there is a low
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Yes, but flooding can easily occur without the classical 1953 situation. I recollect in my time when the srorm tide warning service staff, ex-RN, were located with us at Bracknell. There were occasions when even a light wind in the right direction might cause overtopping of the then flood defences. Low or no low it was a close run situation. I suppose that my concern is that some people will not take action next time. Nothing is ever certain when it comes to weather and IRS effects.
 
DavidofMersea said:
Well clearly I, and others, did know better. You only have to read this thread to see that many people doubted there was going to be a flood, my knowledge is nothing special. Also getting it wrong too often is going to stop people listening to the EA, and if there really is a flood few people will take action. Remember December 2013? and again now
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As you are clearly so knowledgable on this subject what do you propose that the authorities should do? Despite your hypothesis that without low pressure there wasn't going to be a flood and having experienced both surges on my boat, on the Deben, real time. I am of the opinion that had the wind not moderated yesterday we would have been back in 2013. So, what should have been done? How do you propose to deal with such a volatile situation covering such a huge area without being cautious? The poor buggers who have to make the actual decisions, rather than armchair warriors, are dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.
 
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The fact is that if the information is available the EA and others have a duty to put it out there....... What you do with it is your decision depending on your level of understanding and local knowledge. We are a fairly well informed group but many of the Great British Public are not. Therefore the EA and other services have a "duty of care" to give advice for a worst case scenario. If it doesn't happen we should be thankful to whoever we pray to and not critical of those who are doing their best on our behalf.

I looked at the forecast charts at the beginning of last week and I too thought that we could have a significant surge and possible flooding. I am thankful that I am only responsible for my own property and don't have to make my forecasts public but I did board up all my doors...... just in case! There will always be the detractors who say they are covering their backsides or crying wolf but I am just glad we have so much more information available these days.........
 
PaulJ said:
The fact is that if the information is available the EA and others have a duty to put it out there....... What you do with it is your decision depending on your level of understanding and local knowledge. We are a fairly well informed group but many of the Great British Public are not. Therefore the EA and other services have a "duty of care" to give advice for a worst case scenario. If it doesn't happen we should be thankful to whoever we pray to and not critical of those who are doing their best on our behalf.

I looked at the forecast charts at the beginning of last week and I too thought that we could have a significant surge and possible flooding. I am thankful that I am only responsible for my own property and don't have to make my forecasts public but I did board up all my doors...... just in case! There will always be the detractors who say they are covering their backsides or crying wolf but I am just glad we have so much more information available these days.........
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+1
 
Quote Originally Posted by Hadenough

Despite your hypothesis that without low pressure there wasn't going to be a flood

DavidofMersea said:
I never said that
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Colvic Watson said:
You did
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Hadenough said:
#39? But anyway, answer the question, what, do you expect the poor buggers who have to make the difficult calls to do? Dammed if you do --------------
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I said "flooding is most unlikely unless there is a low" as you can see if you read my post properly instead of looking for something to pour scorn on me.

The poor buggers, as you call them, should examine all the facts before starting a panic. Many people, including me, who were advised to leave their homes did not do so believing the EA had got it wrong and many quoting Dec 2013. Now they have cried wolf again, so next time even more people are likely to ignore them .... when there might be a real flood
 
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