pks1702
Well-Known Member
Painful those piles 
Anyone Flooded?
- Thread starter Tam Lin
- Start date
stuey_two
Well-Known Member
To claim that this surge is a "non-event" is premature.
IF the surge predictions are correct (as they seem to be ), then the water level between Felixstowe and Mersea will be at least 1m higher than the levels in the tide tables for the period from about 4PM to about 1AM, and at least 2m higher around 5PM to 6PM.
This should cause no problems early evening but overall tidal height should be above 6m for a couple of hours around midnight
I don't know what height is needed to cause flood risk on this low-lying coastal strip, but I will by tomorrow.
Until then, it would be civilised if we did not take the piss out of the poor (literally) inhabitants of Jaywick, many of whom have little choice other than to live there.
IF the surge predictions are correct (as they seem to be ), then the water level between Felixstowe and Mersea will be at least 1m higher than the levels in the tide tables for the period from about 4PM to about 1AM, and at least 2m higher around 5PM to 6PM.
This should cause no problems early evening but overall tidal height should be above 6m for a couple of hours around midnight
I don't know what height is needed to cause flood risk on this low-lying coastal strip, but I will by tomorrow.
Until then, it would be civilised if we did not take the piss out of the poor (literally) inhabitants of Jaywick, many of whom have little choice other than to live there.
Bru
Well-Known Member
The surge arrived at Fambridge around half an hour to forty minutes before high water, the water level at that point being perhaps a shade higher than a normal tide of the predicted level. By nominal high water, the river had dropped the best part of half a meter so the "high" tide was actually well below predicted.
In part, that was probably assisted by the WNW 7 gusting 8 piling the tide up as well as the surge
Precautions taken to protect the boat, van and store turned out to be unnecessary but had things gone otherwise ...
In part, that was probably assisted by the WNW 7 gusting 8 piling the tide up as well as the surge
Precautions taken to protect the boat, van and store turned out to be unnecessary but had things gone otherwise ...
PaulJ
Well-Known Member
'Loved the "report" from Jaywick ! 
As for the "false alarm", I think the Environment Agency and other "Authorities" have a duty to alert people to possible events of this kind. I lived near Lewes when it flooded in 2000 and have seen the devastation that can be caused. This was me.......
Now I live by the Orwell in a place that can flood (some people never learn!). For this current surge I have all the doors boarded up or sealed with Silicone goo and for this tide at least, it didn't happen........ GREAT!!!! And I will leave it all in place for tonight's Tide. I would far rather be ready and not have it happen than be taken by surprise and get flooded........ and fortunately the powers that be seem to think likewise
Re. the '87 "Hurricane", as I recall there was the remains of a genuine hurricane that had recurved and been downgraded and wandered across the Atlantic in our direction, as sometimes happens and this coincided with a fairly deep Low such as we are quite familiar with in the Autumn. These two systems combined and reinforced eachother which was why we got such strong winds. Technically it was not a "Hurricane" but not far from where I lived in Sussex at the time winds of 104mph were recorded...... I'm sure I don't need to remind you folks that "Hurricane Force 12" starts at 64kts/74mph. So Michael Fish was quite correct in saying that there would not be a Hurricane but there certainly were Hurricane force winds.
As for the "false alarm", I think the Environment Agency and other "Authorities" have a duty to alert people to possible events of this kind. I lived near Lewes when it flooded in 2000 and have seen the devastation that can be caused. This was me.......
Now I live by the Orwell in a place that can flood (some people never learn!). For this current surge I have all the doors boarded up or sealed with Silicone goo and for this tide at least, it didn't happen........ GREAT!!!! And I will leave it all in place for tonight's Tide. I would far rather be ready and not have it happen than be taken by surprise and get flooded........ and fortunately the powers that be seem to think likewise
Re. the '87 "Hurricane", as I recall there was the remains of a genuine hurricane that had recurved and been downgraded and wandered across the Atlantic in our direction, as sometimes happens and this coincided with a fairly deep Low such as we are quite familiar with in the Autumn. These two systems combined and reinforced eachother which was why we got such strong winds. Technically it was not a "Hurricane" but not far from where I lived in Sussex at the time winds of 104mph were recorded...... I'm sure I don't need to remind you folks that "Hurricane Force 12" starts at 64kts/74mph. So Michael Fish was quite correct in saying that there would not be a Hurricane but there certainly were Hurricane force winds.
pyrojames
Well-Known Member
And from Ms Doolittle, "in artford, ereford and amshire, urricans ardly hever appen".
DavidofMersea
Well-Known Member
But when is it possible? It is possible we might have an earthquake, we had one in 1884, do the EA ought to put out a warning? If the EA give out warnings and nothing happens to often, they will be ignored.
The Police have jut been here saying there "might" be another flood to night, also there might be a flood tomorrow, and I ought to move to the mainland. I pointed out that there has NEVER been a flood as high as my floor, and if there is, I shall go upstairs, although I never said so, on past experience I am more likely to suffer an earthquake than a flood
My house is insured at normal terms, and if there was a real risk of flood, that would not be. Unlike the EA staff, the insurers are putting their money where their mouth is
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PaulRainbow
Well-Known Member
The Orwell flooded just past the bridge on the way to Shotley sometime around midday. They were just taking the "road closed" signs down at 1330.
Oh, you can't have a Hurricane over land.
Oh, you can't have a Hurricane over land.
sailorman
Well-Known Member
i was on a mooring just below the bridge over the 2013 surge as i didnt trust the marina piles to cope with the rise of tide, i watched 2 cars attempt the Strand & they didnt make it. after 1/2 hr i dialled 999 as nobody came to assist them. When the hazard lights went out due to flooding ( i assume ) i called 999 again, suggesting they need to get a move on. the 2 occupants of 1 car were taken from the car roof.
In the morning 2 recovery trucks hoisted the cars o/b.
pvb
Well-Known Member
The Strand floods at around 4.4m above CD, so can be impassable for a couple of hours or so at times.
pvb
Well-Known Member
PaulRainbow
Well-Known Member
Leighb
Well-Known Member
They did put up signs indeed, however the water never in fact came over the road, and local folk just ignored the signs, lots of posts on the local Facbook page about out. However tonight may be different?
PaulRainbow
Well-Known Member
Couldn't have been much of a surge then, as Pete pointed out earlier (and you no doubt know) it comes over sometimes on big Springs. Was over quite a bit a few weeks ago.
pvb
Well-Known Member
This chart was on the Shotley Point Yacht Club site, showing predicted flooding of the Strand for a couple of hours or so last night.
Bru
Well-Known Member
Well we've floated off the mud an hour and a half early this evening. Could be interesting in the early hours 
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Predicting North Sea tidal surge flooding is a case, primarily, of getting the timing of the surge precisely correct with respect to the high tide. Wind direction is critical. The wind should be more or less parallel to the coast. The surge driven by the wind will then turn due to Coriolois onto the coast. Counter-intuitively a wind more directly onto the coast may well increase wave height but not the surge.
From my time in the then Central Forecast Office, I can assure you that warnings will never be issued lightly. There is no point in crying wolf. On the other hand, missing a surge flood is in nobody's interest.
From my time in the then Central Forecast Office, I can assure you that warnings will never be issued lightly. There is no point in crying wolf. On the other hand, missing a surge flood is in nobody's interest.
Tam Lin
Well-Known Member
So, that was a "no" then?
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Hardly. It was near enough. Having said that, the weather situation was not the optimal 1953 situation. The worst case is a strong SW wind across the Atlantic creating a wind driven bulge in sea levels. Then the deep low causing the winds to pass North of the UK in time with the lunar tidal bulge so raising water levels. One hPa fall in pressure equates to a one cm increase in sea levels so that a low of 970 hPa would raise sea levels by about 43 cm. Then the low carrying on NE'wards to create the NW'ly that is the final straw.
As I said earlier, the timing of the bulge due the surge relative to the astronomical tidal bulge is usually critical. There are far more surges than we ever hear about. They just do not occur with big tides. They do, of course, provide data to check and refine the surge models.
DavidofMersea
Well-Known Member
But there was no low this time, and everybody (except the EA) knows that flooding is most unlikely unless there is a low
Otter
Well-Known Member
Alongside the sign by your front door saying "no cold callers please" you should have one that says "no flood warnings please". It would stop them wasting their valuable time on someone who knows better, perhaps consider it as an act of public service?
