Phoenix of Hamble
Well-Known Member
Is it too soon to discuss the long range (mis)forecast..? /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
16 days to Oostende
- Thread starter Phoenix of Hamble
- Start date
FullCircle
Well-Known Member
Ok, I'll play.
My long range choice is Grytviken. Any advance on that?
Grytviken , South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands 6 Day Weather Forecast
Issued: 03 am Tue 08 May local time
Grytviken 1-3 Day Weather Summary Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed night , Freeze-thaw conditions (max 4°C on Thu afternoon, min -2°C on Tue morning), Winds increasing (light winds from the SSE on Tue morning, strong winds from the W by Thu night)
My long range choice is Grytviken. Any advance on that?
Grytviken , South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands 6 Day Weather Forecast
Issued: 03 am Tue 08 May local time
Grytviken 1-3 Day Weather Summary Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed night , Freeze-thaw conditions (max 4°C on Thu afternoon, min -2°C on Tue morning), Winds increasing (light winds from the SSE on Tue morning, strong winds from the W by Thu night)
Phoenix of Hamble
Well-Known Member
I prefer this version....
Grytviken 1-3 Day Weather Summary No rain (total 0mm), mostly not falling on Wed night , Semi-tropical conditions (max 34°C on Thu afternoon, min 32°C on Tue morning), Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Tue morning, still lightish winds from the W by Thu night), likelihood of heavy Duvel consumption expected by Saturday.
better?
Grytviken 1-3 Day Weather Summary No rain (total 0mm), mostly not falling on Wed night , Semi-tropical conditions (max 34°C on Thu afternoon, min 32°C on Tue morning), Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Tue morning, still lightish winds from the W by Thu night), likelihood of heavy Duvel consumption expected by Saturday.
better?
FullCircle
Well-Known Member
Ahh, you have changed from 'Long Range' to 'Highly Unlikely' which is another version of 'I'm sorry I haven't a clue' .
I was just drawing a line from Full Circle Mooring through Ostend, and by projection my bombing target would be Frankfurt, or possibly Koblenz.
So I need to be looking at the met for there.
Whereas taking a line from Shotley through Ostend puts your target in Saarbrucken, or you could hit Charleroi if you are feeling a bit devilish.
Need to watch out for the coastal defences though.
I was just drawing a line from Full Circle Mooring through Ostend, and by projection my bombing target would be Frankfurt, or possibly Koblenz.
So I need to be looking at the met for there.
Whereas taking a line from Shotley through Ostend puts your target in Saarbrucken, or you could hit Charleroi if you are feeling a bit devilish.
Need to watch out for the coastal defences though.
Athene V30
Well-Known Member
I didn't think the big boys had to bother about the weather and that both Full Circle and Morgana were sailed by real men?
Its wimps like me that worry! If it is near the nose and forecasting 5 or more my plans may well change!
Its wimps like me that worry! If it is near the nose and forecasting 5 or more my plans may well change!
Phoenix of Hamble
Well-Known Member
Peter,
If I had a crew of lads, then i'd agree.... anything up to a 7 would be a goer, but with SWMBO and the kids on board, then a 5 is about our top end as well..... although it does depend a bit upon direction too... maybe a 6 across the beam....
Last year we had to delay for 48hours through weather, and the year before (though we weren't planning to attend anyway) everyone motored the whole way in a flat calm!
If I had a crew of lads, then i'd agree.... anything up to a 7 would be a goer, but with SWMBO and the kids on board, then a 5 is about our top end as well..... although it does depend a bit upon direction too... maybe a 6 across the beam....
Last year we had to delay for 48hours through weather, and the year before (though we weren't planning to attend anyway) everyone motored the whole way in a flat calm!
FullCircle
Well-Known Member
Ahh, Peter, you see our concern with the weather is a crucial component of the complex mathematical conundrum known as Projected Boatfunds Inconstant.
SWMBO & Offspring are known to be a happy constant if the weather is F5 or less. Failure to observe simple rules will upset the delicate balancing of the Projected Boatfunds Inconstant.
As this is measured on a Log-Log scale, the difference between 0 and Infinity are very small indeed to the Unbalanced Observer.
Real Men therefore know when to apply the Majestic Weather sub-equation, which should be restricted to BeerOClock Boys Weekends.
If you wish to be able to secure a sizeable portion of the Family Budget on a rolling year by year basis, then weather is a key element.
Another, more stealthy, but risky unknown is the application for more boat length. Whilst this has an undoubted benefit on SWMBO and Offspring in terms of increasing the available weather envelope and comfor aboard ratio, it has to be measured such as not to seem *ruinous* on the Bank Balance Sheet at year end.
Its not easy all this, and has nothing to do with Real Men, although posing as such, while remaining onside with SWMBO, is another tricky calculation.
SWMBO & Offspring are known to be a happy constant if the weather is F5 or less. Failure to observe simple rules will upset the delicate balancing of the Projected Boatfunds Inconstant.
As this is measured on a Log-Log scale, the difference between 0 and Infinity are very small indeed to the Unbalanced Observer.
Real Men therefore know when to apply the Majestic Weather sub-equation, which should be restricted to BeerOClock Boys Weekends.
If you wish to be able to secure a sizeable portion of the Family Budget on a rolling year by year basis, then weather is a key element.
Another, more stealthy, but risky unknown is the application for more boat length. Whilst this has an undoubted benefit on SWMBO and Offspring in terms of increasing the available weather envelope and comfor aboard ratio, it has to be measured such as not to seem *ruinous* on the Bank Balance Sheet at year end.
Its not easy all this, and has nothing to do with Real Men, although posing as such, while remaining onside with SWMBO, is another tricky calculation.
Phoenix of Hamble
Well-Known Member
ROFLMAO...... so very very true.... /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
Ayeshaman
Member
I thought my current record of 27 hours was bad enough!
beancounter
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Ahh, Peter, you see our concern with the weather is a crucial component of the complex mathematical conundrum known as Projected Boatfunds Inconstant.
[/ QUOTE ]
Jim, have you ever thought of becoming a Management Consultant.....
Ahh, Peter, you see our concern with the weather is a crucial component of the complex mathematical conundrum known as Projected Boatfunds Inconstant.
[/ QUOTE ]
Jim, have you ever thought of becoming a Management Consultant.....
D3B
Well-Known Member
Gobble-de-gook comes to mind
/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
But anything over a F4 and i shall be recalculating /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif
/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
But anything over a F4 and i shall be recalculating /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif
Phoenix of Hamble
Well-Known Member
John,
Sadly there was far too much truth and common sense in Jim's post for that idea to ever work........
Sadly there was far too much truth and common sense in Jim's post for that idea to ever work........
sailorman
Well-Known Member
have you ever thought of becoming a Management Consultant.....
see you there then /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif.
we will see if we can manage a Duvel or three /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
see you there then /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif.
we will see if we can manage a Duvel or three /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
FullCircle
Well-Known Member
<<Jim, have you ever thought of becoming a Management Consultant.....>>
the very trade I have been pursuing all these years, but with the downward invoice modifier, as Engineering is in the Title Block....
the very trade I have been pursuing all these years, but with the downward invoice modifier, as Engineering is in the Title Block....
FullCircle
Well-Known Member
I once managed 22 hours from Ramsgate to Burnham.....without getting lost either.
CliveG
Well-Known Member
Metcheck is giving SW or W about 10 mph for the Thursday and Friday
A bit damp overnight Thursday night.
Should be o.k. for Dougie and not to bad for us.
I hope that they are not to far out with that.
Yet they where forecasting a sunny weekend for last week, 2 weeks before.
Long time to go yet.
A bit damp overnight Thursday night.
Should be o.k. for Dougie and not to bad for us.
I hope that they are not to far out with that.
Yet they where forecasting a sunny weekend for last week, 2 weeks before.
Long time to go yet.
Sixpence
Well-Known Member
Let's see how accurate this one turns out
WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST
====================
Issued: 1530 Friday 11th May 2007
SATURDAY:
Complex low through the British isles, one centred west of Ireland, another to the east of northeast England. An occluded front through Northern Ireland and northern England, with a warm front approaching from the southwest later.
A band of cloud and rain associated with the occlusion affects much of Ireland and northern England, this edging northwards through thre day.
Plenty of cloud over the rest of England, wales and Ireland with some showers breaking out, but then more persistent rain into the southwest later on. A breezy day along southern coasts.
Central and northern Scotland will have a few showers, some of them heavy.
Winds in England and Wales mainly cyclonic 5-10kt (F2-F3) but SW 20-25jkt (F5-F6) along southern coasts. Over Scotland variable 2-7kt (F2).
SUNDAY:
Deep low developing south of Ireland with fronts moving north during the day.
Plenty of cloud for all parts of the UK and Ireland. Periods of rain in the morning, becoming more persistent in the afternoon. Most of the rain will be through Ireland, Wales and southern England, this heavy at times. Drier for northern Scotland.
Winds mainly SE 18-25kt (F5-F6) but E-ENE 17-25kt (F5-F6) over Scotland. Becoming SW 17-25 gust 30kt (F6) through the English Channel in the afternoon.
WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST
====================
Issued: 1530 Friday 11th May 2007
SATURDAY:
Complex low through the British isles, one centred west of Ireland, another to the east of northeast England. An occluded front through Northern Ireland and northern England, with a warm front approaching from the southwest later.
A band of cloud and rain associated with the occlusion affects much of Ireland and northern England, this edging northwards through thre day.
Plenty of cloud over the rest of England, wales and Ireland with some showers breaking out, but then more persistent rain into the southwest later on. A breezy day along southern coasts.
Central and northern Scotland will have a few showers, some of them heavy.
Winds in England and Wales mainly cyclonic 5-10kt (F2-F3) but SW 20-25jkt (F5-F6) along southern coasts. Over Scotland variable 2-7kt (F2).
SUNDAY:
Deep low developing south of Ireland with fronts moving north during the day.
Plenty of cloud for all parts of the UK and Ireland. Periods of rain in the morning, becoming more persistent in the afternoon. Most of the rain will be through Ireland, Wales and southern England, this heavy at times. Drier for northern Scotland.
Winds mainly SE 18-25kt (F5-F6) but E-ENE 17-25kt (F5-F6) over Scotland. Becoming SW 17-25 gust 30kt (F6) through the English Channel in the afternoon.
