Winter storm this weekend

simonjk

simonjk

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Joined
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Messages
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www.sailingweather.co.uk
Hi all,

Latest progs low pulling a major depression over the UK on Sunday with severe gale force winds to the south, west and east of the low. Reason for the rapid deepening is that the low leaves the left hand exit of the jet stream as an upper trough of cold air engages with the surface systems, and then bang! rapid deepening takes place.

And looks like we become far more unsettled next week.

Charts are below.

Simon

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Latest would put gusts to 55kt+ in the Bristol Channel very early Sunday morning, but then easing in the afternoon, although still F7-F8. You need to keep your eye on this one.

Simon
 
Update

Hi again,

This mornings forecast charts are showing the deep area of low pressure crossing Ireland in the early hours of Sunday morning, then southern Scotland by 6am Sunday and out into the North Sea Sunday afternoon.

Most models are in agreement and this means that confidence is reasonably high at the moment (bit this could change of course). Looks like severe gales for most of the country as the feature passes, gusts could be to 70kt over exposed western coasts and hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Simon
 
Putting my Michael Fish 'hat' on and looking at all the information available, I cannot see this "storm" happening in southern England at all.

Yes it will be windier than normal but the low is tracking north and will pass west of Iceland and as others have pointed out, the 'windy' weather, if at all, will be early next week.
 
Hi again,

Latest suggests the low centred over southern Ireland at 6am Sunday, Manchester at midday and then just east of Newcastle-Upon-Tyne at 6pm.

Winds still very strong around the low, severe gales to the south of it. I'd say gsusts of 6kts over SW England and Wales early Sunday morning, these then spreading through the rest of the Channel and across England and Wakles by mid morning, still gusts to 60kt. Remaining windy into the afternoon across Irelandf, England and Wales, a second batch of really strong winds following into the Irish Sea, Bristol Channel and off SW England by late afternoon.

There is consistency between the models too. I am hoping the images show below, the first is UK Met Office chart for midday Sunday, followed by GFS for the same time. Interestingly, the NOGAPS puts the low further north which would mean stronger winds being more widespread earlier the day.

Overall, it's still looking very windy!

Simon

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Cheers for the heads up on this. I had plenned to leave my Rib on a mooring after diving on Saturday night. I'll recover now, instead.
 
simonjk said:
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Overall, it's still looking very windy!
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I think that drawing every single line of barometric pressure in on your charts does make it look very windy and will frighten some people.

The 'general public', myself included, normally see only Met Office charts with lines drawn every 4 millibars which looks a lot less intimidating.

See:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

I still don't think it will be as windy in the south as some folk make out. Breezy yes, serious gales no.
 
Nice one Simon! Thanks for moving the windy stuff south. Looks like we'll be No1 genny and big spinnaker on Sunday rather than the storm jib/3 reefs forecast a couple of days ago. Now if you could just turn off the rain .......
 
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