Will the end of new petrol/diesel cars in 2030, affect boat propulsion?

[AngusMcDoon]

Hydrogen-Powered Mirai | New Cars | Toyota
Behind the wheel of a hydrogen-powered car

... but we are.

What's its range? What is its true (not subsidised) cost? I bet neither you, nor anyone else here, knows anyone who is driving a hydrogen powered vehicle. If it was a practical proposition there would be more on the road than there are electric cars now, and there would be a headlong rush to install infrastructure, but because it isn't, there isn't. Anyway, you have your dream if you like, but I reckon in 20 years there still won't be enough hydrogen powered cars (or boats) about to make any difference to anything. And for my last word on this subject, I reckon my prediction will be right.

 

[NotBirdseye]

What's its range? What is its true (not subsidised) cost? I bet neither you, nor anyone else here, knows anyone who is driving a hydrogen powered vehicle. If it was a practical proposition there would be more on the road than there are electric cars now, and there would be a headlong rush to install infrastructure, but because it isn't, there isn't. Anyway, you have your dream if you like, but I reckon in 20 years there still won't be enough hydrogen powered cars (or boats) about to make any difference to anything. And for my last word on this subject, I reckon my prediction will be right.

You'd lose that bet.

 

[dancrane]

I've said nothing here for a few dozen posts, because I don't know enough to make a case, for or against any particular theory...

...but I don't understand the basis for some contributors' determined negativity. It's less than 15 years since the first extortionate iPhone; now, they and their cheap imitators (the poor and the thoroughly competent) are in everyone's hands on every street in the developed world...

...hydrogen certainly sounds like a pig to package and may not offer the answer, but I do believe there will be an answer.

Predictions of a future with nothing substantially improving on diesel, which the world recognises as a problem (however satisfactory it was when we didn't give a damn about pollution or the climate), seem to me, as Flaming said earlier, like wilfully sticking one's head in the sand. Such an outlook may reduce one's sense of the problem, but it must also obscure the view of possibilities for progress.

 

[MikeBrazier]

What's its range? What is its true (not subsidised) cost? I bet neither you, nor anyone else here, knows anyone who is driving a hydrogen powered vehicle. If it was a practical proposition there would be more on the road than there are electric cars now, and there would be a headlong rush to install infrastructure, but because it isn't, there isn't. Anyway, you have your dream if you like, but I reckon in 20 years there still won't be enough hydrogen powered cars (or boats) about to make any difference to anything. And for my last word on this subject, I reckon my prediction will be right.

Hydrogen buses coming to Birmingham next Spring | Birmingham City Council

If you can run a bus off hydrogen, surely a boat would not be a giant leap in the future.

Or a train for that matter Hydrogen Train Runs on UK Mainline for the First Time | Railway-News

Mike

 

[lustyd]

Maybe, but I hazard a guess that in 10 or 20 years time CFRP foiling multihulls will still be so stupidly expensive and impractical that only high end racers with a bottomless pit of money will be sailing them, and the rest of us will be chugging along in boring Bavarias and Beneteaus. I wonder who will be right?

Interestingly 2020 saw the rollout of the first mass produced products which used a new cheaper and faster CFRP manufacturing process. I've so far only seen this in the cycling industry, but I see no reason why carbon manufacturing won't get cheaper, faster and easier, and eventually I would hope recyclable too. Just because you can't imagine the future being better doesn't mean it won't be!

 

[oldgit]

setting fire to rock oil as method of propulsion......................far to many problems to be a goer ?

 

[Momac]

I am not sure diesel and petrol should be increased in price by being taxed heavily since that would be a tax on less well off people who can only afford to run old cars.

 

[SimonKNZ]

Surely a sailing yacht is already the perfect hybrid water vehicle - most of its propulsive (and electrical with solar and wind) power from renewable sources, with diesel used as the exception when renewable not suitable.
How much diesel do most of us use per season - a couple of hundred litres at most would be my estimate. And what's the ROI on converting a cheap, reliable diesel installation to electric/hydrogen or similar? Beyond the lifespan of a yacht. There is significant cost - monetary and environmental - to producing electric vehicles, which is worthwhile because they save thousands of litres of petrol/diesel per year. that just doesn't apply to boats

 

[lustyd]

Well, the return is potentially having a planet to live on well into the future so the cost seems negligable. This isn't an ROI discussion, but even if it were the conversion for those who have done it has paid off nicely if you actually bother to do the research. Maintenance costs practically disapear, it's not just fuel but belts, filters, bug treatments, engine replacements, service costs, oil, cooling, and many other costs which are hidden to you because you're so used to seeing them. But no, if you just look at fuel and ignore every other factor, it doesn't look like a good deal. Would I do it today? No, it would be too inconvenient to change my sailing habits right now. Do I hope to do it on my next boat? Absolutely!
Don't forget the costs difference is largely due to converting old boats and low volumes of 10s of installations per year. If all boats went electric the cost would plumet rapidly.

 

[Stemar]

I'm with SimonKNZ. In the total level of emissions, leisure boating, even including gas guzzling gin palaces, is hardly significant, and yachts literally a drop in the ocean, but we'll get caught up in the legislation intended for more significant polluters, just as we did in the first lockdown, precisely because we aren't significant.

I've long thought that, were I rich enough, an electric Southerly with much of the weight of the internal ballast replaced by batteries (once lead acid, now, with my unlimited budget, Lifepo, would be a way forward. Fit baby azipods ahead of each rudder and you'd have a near perfect low/zero emissions boat that would do ditch crawling as well as blue water.

 

[flaming]

Surely a sailing yacht is already the perfect hybrid water vehicle - most of its propulsive (and electrical with solar and wind) power from renewable sources, with diesel used as the exception when renewable not suitable.
How much diesel do most of us use per season - a couple of hundred litres at most would be my estimate. And what's the ROI on converting a cheap, reliable diesel installation to electric/hydrogen or similar? Beyond the lifespan of a yacht. There is significant cost - monetary and environmental - to producing electric vehicles, which is worthwhile because they save thousands of litres of petrol/diesel per year. that just doesn't apply to boats

I think the question is not about converting existing boats, but whether or not new boats fitted with Diesel engines will be on sale after 2030.

 

[duncan99210]

I think that the majority of arguments on here surrounding the demise (or otherwise) of iCE are slightly missing the point: they focus on identifying a replacement which doesn’t require a significant change in current behaviour.
So my current pattern of using the engine to keep the speed up would need to be replaced by either limiting the distance to be travelled in a day or waiting for the wind, as the energy I can carry will be limited. Equally, I will need to modify my land travel arrangements: no more driving for 7 hours to visit my sister, I’ll have to catch the train. If I need to get around whilst with her, I’ll need to either use public transport or borrow her car (which will probably be a cheaper, short range car, fine for local trips, no use for longer trips).
All of that presupposes that some magic bullet of energy storage doesn’t emerge in the meantime,min which case we may not need to modify our behaviours at all.... I’m not overly optimistic but you never know. Stranger things have happened: I well remember visiting the Atlas computer at UMIST in the mid sixties, it filled a house. I now have an infinitely more useful computer in my back pocket, including an energy store which lets it operate for 24 hours or more.....

 

[JumbleDuck]

The grid never has too much energy... because we don't turn half the stuff on. This is to avoid wasting energy.

Just wait till we aren't burning gas as if there was no tomorrow ...

The 30 minute super charge is limited to Teslas. So if you don't have a tesla... you're a bit stuck. I'm sure others will catch up. I do appreciate your enthusiasm for electric based vehicles but I don't think they're as convenient.

I'm not particularly enthused about electric cars. For some people they are very convenient, but if you regularly do long trips, or live in a city there are just too many problems. We've thought of getting one for local trips where we live in the country, but anything we could afford wouldn't be able to do the 200 mile return trip - with no charging at the other end - which we do every week and would still cost much more than the cheap old cars we prefer.

I can see the attractions in a replacement fuel, but I'm just not convinced that it will be hydrogen. To expensive (in energy) to make, too awkward and expensive to transport, too awkward to store in a vehicle. It may have some applications, like allowing electric trains (which don't mind heavy storage) to run away from the wires further than batteries, but I think something else will take the place of petrol in cars, or petrol-driven cars, or maybe even cars.[/QUOTE]

 

[JumbleDuck]

Hydrogen is not the complete answer I'll grant you but there are fewer obstacles that might be normally expected. Storage is not really an issue any more.

Storage absolutely is an issue. Storing as a liquid requires very complicated insulation (liquid nitrogen shields and the like), storage as compressed gas requires huge volumes at horrendous pressures and storage as low pressure gas requires far better materials than natural gas because hydrogen molecules are so tiny and can wriggle their way out of anything, Companies in the field like to wave their hands and say "that's solved" ... ask them to show you a commercially-viable high-volume hydrogen store.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Just because something is difficult or expensive today should not put us off trying.

Very true, but the laws of thermodynamics are a lot less elastic than the laws of economics.

 

[JumbleDuck]

I think the question is not about converting existing boats, but whether or not new boats fitted with Diesel engines will be on sale after 2030.

Yes, I think they will be, probably with "Runs on biodiesel" stickers all over them. The bigger question is how long petroleum-derived resin will continue to be an economically viable structural material for boats.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Hydrogen-Powered Mirai | New Cars | Toyota
Behind the wheel of a hydrogen-powered car

... but we are.

There is or was at least one car in Britain which ran on used coffee grounds from Starbucks. Doesn't mean coffee-powered cars are on their way.

 

[Moodysailor]

If we look at what history has taught us regarding technology it's that
a) The final answer is rarely the first answer, but it can show a glimpse of where we are likely to be headed
b) Early adopters aren't always the one's who benefit the most, but staying resistant in the face of inevitable change will almost certainly lead to failure
c) Technology has developed at an ever-increasing rate. A rate of development that seemed fast in the 90's is now so slow that it would put most tech companies out of business....

I just read an article where Cummins are investing in green hydrogen production and storage plants. As more of the worlds larger tech and industrial companies make investments like this, development, tech suitability and cost will come down and be more available. This will also lead to an infrastructure investment, so I strongly doubt that supply/availability will be an issue (the only way they will recover the money is if they can sell the stuff they make...)

Currently, one of the debates around replacements for fossil fuels comes from energy density - you have to carry more of energy X than fossil fuels to go the same distance, or fill up more frequently. However, great strides are already being made in the area of vessel and motor efficiency that is mitigating this issue and this is where I would encourage the thought process to go - we simply cannot continue to do the same things in the same way and expect a different result. In the transition to future fuels, it will likely require a change of habits, a combination of energy sources and more efficient vessel design.

The mindset needs to be on the outcome , not the input - instead of limiting thoughts to keeping the metal donk in the bottom (which is only 40% efficient at converting fuel to kinetic energy) and replacing the diesel with something else, we will need to be open to using a variety or combination of energy storage and prolusion solutions in order to maintain the current comfort, lifestyle, range and safety needs. This is all very "blue sky thinking", but once we think outside the current norms, there is a lot of very interesting potential that just needs industrialising to lower costs and pulling together in a compatible package. The answer really isn't that far away, and the "future" is likely to be closer than we think..

 

[coopec]

Currently, one of the debates around replacements for fossil fuels comes from energy density - you have to carry more of energy X than fossil fuels to go the same distance, or fill up more frequently. However, great strides are already being made in the area of vessel and motor efficiency that is mitigating this issue and this is where I would encourage the thought process to go - we simply cannot continue to do the same things in the same way and expect a different result. In the transition to future fuels, it will likely require a change of habits, a combination of energy sources and more efficient vessel design.

That's an interesting comment but I'd like to home in on just one point regarding energy density.

Supposing you wanted an electric off road vehicle. You could do away with the weight of a 6 cylinder diesel, a gearbox, tailshaft, front and rear axle (and diffs), fuel tank and fuel. Replace all that with a bank of L ion batteries and an electric motor at each wheel. What an enormous weight saving?

 

[Moodysailor]

That's an interesting comment but I'd like to home in on just one point regarding energy density.

Supposing you wanted an electric off road vehicle. You could do away with the weight of a 6 cylinder diesel, a gearbox, tailshaft, front and rear axle (and diffs), fuel tank and fuel. Replace all that with a bank of L ion batteries and an electric motor at each wheel. What an enormous weight saving?
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I don't disagree, battery technology and development, as well as energy storage is one of the most interesting areas currently and solving the challenge of stability, rapid replenishment and storage will be a big leap forward. I think we will see significant improvements in this area. It's hard to directly compare aircraft efficiency with a ship/vessel due to the massive drag of water, so if you look at the system weight for comparable range on a vessel there is still no current viability for fully electric, but it's clear to see that the technology is both transferable, and improving.

Electric motors are already approaching 98% efficiency, but I'm not yet convinced that fully electric will be viable for larger vessels or powerboats. Their place and importance in the drive system cannot be overlooked however, in my opinion.

The positive aspect is that the technology is perfectly viable and currently available if we change our expectations and adjust our requirements. As someone alluded to in an earlier thread, it's the convenience we have become used to. If we are prepared to forgoe some range, and equip our boats to use the natural resources to replenish charge, then it is already possible to run completely off electric for sailing yachts.