Which weather app is the most accurate for ireland?

[DangerousPirate]

I am trying to make a plan and every app I look at is totally different to the other. Sure, it's a week in advance but I didn't expect such stark differences. One app shows easterlies in the 20 knots range while the other shows confused eye of the storm 5 or less knots in all directions really, while the next one shows me 10 knots northerlies and the next one showing southerlies.

So far I looked at windy.com with different weather modules, weawow.com and ventusky.com.

Of course, they all claim to be the best and most accurate, but which one do you think?

 

[John_Silver]

I use Meteo Consult over there. (As I do everywhere else!). Find it accurate. In the sense of wind direction and range of strengths, if not pinpoint timing. The west coast is ‘four seasons in one day,’ sometimes one hour, territory after all….All part of the magic!

EDIT: Also keep an eye on the Met Eirann ‘Marine’ tab. Just Google it up (signal permitting) for the equivalent of the UK Inshore Forecast. 24-48hr time horizon only. There is an app. But, from memory (I deleted it, for not being very useful) it’s land oriented.

 

[Supertramp]

Lots of previous posts on this, and the consensus is usually to look at several sources.

ECMWF in Windy is the one I use most, as you can "zoom out" to see what the big picture is. Met Eireann is pretty good and gives a summary outlook including wind. I have sometimes logged the forecast I'm interested in for direction/strength a week in advance to monitor how it changes over time.

Not sure if you mean West side or Irish Sea. Irish Sea mid to south looks like settled SE/E/NE after Friday. The West side looks different.

If it all goes wrong the Irish coastguard are good at issuing small craft warnings on VHF. By which time you usually know it's going wrong.....

 

[DangerousPirate]

Lots of previous posts on this, and the consensus is usually to look at several sources.

ECMWF in Windy is the one I use most, as you can "zoom out" to see what the big picture is. Met Eireann is pretty good and gives a summary outlook including wind. I have sometimes logged the forecast I'm interested in for direction/strength a week in advance to monitor how it changes over time.

Not sure if you mean West side or Irish Sea. Irish Sea mid to south looks like settled SE/E/NE after Friday. The West side looks different.

If it all goes wrong the Irish coastguard are good at issuing small craft warnings on VHF. By which time you usually know it's going wrong.....

Looking at the irish sea, planning a trip to Ardglass from Waterford. It's just some sources are the 180° opposite of the other, and that's not helpful at all. East or West doesn't make a big difference, but North and South does.

I'd normally wait for a good window, but they are building a footbridge across the river in Waterford, and I am on the wrong side of that. Need to get out before then.

 

[dunedin]

Looking at the irish sea, planning a trip to Ardglass from Waterford. It's just some sources are the 180° opposite of the other, and that's not helpful at all. East or West doesn't make a big difference, but North and South does.

I'd normally wait for a good window, but they are building a footbridge across the river in Waterford, and I am on the wrong side of that. Need to get out before then.

That is why it is important to look at multiple models.
- all models align - probably fairly stable weather systems and can have some confidence in the forecasts.
- large variations between models - the weather systems are unstable and unpredictable - don’t rely on any of them!
A week ahead is a long time in models at this time of year. Keep monitoring and see if a consensus emerges.
PS The “app” is irrelevant - that is just presentation. Need to know which models are being used.

 

[pandos]

I live in the south coast of Ireland. I use predict wind ( the free version looking at ECMWF) generally find that the most accurate. I also look at Windy and Windguru.

Lately I have been using YR weather, a Norwegian site for hill walking and I find it very accurate so for coastal marine it may be pretty good

Our weather is very un-predictable and very localized.

Met Eireann tend to be very cautious in their forecasts, but what the coastguard put out is usually fairly accurate.

I find that looking at the observations from the lighthouses and buoys is the best way to get a feel for what one might encounter.

 

[Supertramp]

I agree it looks a bit fickle, a lot of E or NE and quite breezy at times over the coming week.. I also find the wind can tend to blow up or down the Irish coast even when it's at an angle offshore. Probably easier to work up the English coast rather than the Irish over the next few days as Easterlies give more shelter but that adds a lot of miles.

Good sailing - it's horrible trying to hit deadlines with uncertain weather and headwinds.

 

[IanCC]

I am trying to make a plan and every app I look at is totally different to the other. Sure, it's a week in advance but I didn't expect such stark differences. One app shows easterlies in the 20 knots range while the other shows confused eye of the storm 5 or less knots in all directions really, while the next one shows me 10 knots northerlies and the next one showing southerlies.

So far I looked at windy.com with different weather modules, weawow.com and ventusky.com.

Of course, they all claim to be the best and most accurate, but which one do you think?

Remember the irish buoys pump out weather info every half hour on 'X'.

 

[AntarcticPilot]

No forecast for 7 days ahead is likely to be very reliable; it's just about the furthest horizon for accurate forecasting. As others have said, if several different models align, it's probably fairly reliable; if they don't, don't believe any of them! 7 day forecasts are only likely to be accurate in settled conditions such as are rare in our blessed isles!

 

[rotrax]

I am trying to make a plan and every app I look at is totally different to the other. Sure, it's a week in advance but I didn't expect such stark differences. One app shows easterlies in the 20 knots range while the other shows confused eye of the storm 5 or less knots in all directions really, while the next one shows me 10 knots northerlies and the next one showing southerlies.

So far I looked at windy.com with different weather modules, weawow.com and ventusky.com.

Of course, they all claim to be the best and most accurate, but which one do you think?

Billy Connelly's advice on the Scottish weather works for me when sailing the Irish Coasts " Dont like the weather? Just wait 20 minutes! "

We use local met services, Windy and Wind Guru. We have been regular sailors on all of the Irish coasts. We always talk to harbourmasters and local fishermen.

Look at too many apps and you just confuse yourself!

IMHO, of course.

 

[Blueboatman]

For the big picture I still prefer Passage Weather and you can choose which models within it.

 

[ghostlymoron2]

AFAIK all weather apps use the same base data. The only difference is the presentation so just choose what suits you best.

 

[DangerousPirate]

AFAIK all weather apps use the same base data. The only difference is the presentation so just choose what suits you best.

I mean, shouldn't they come to the same conclusions then?

But yeah, I think 7 days in advance is too much. I need to look again in a few days and see what it looks like then. Need southerlies

 

[dunedin]

AFAIK all weather apps use the same base data. The only difference is the presentation so just choose what suits you best.

That simply is not true. There are a variety of different weather models. Some apps are tied to a single model (eg XC uses GFS) whereas others use and compare multiple models - eg PredictWind.
For example the models I have access to via free PredictWind include
- GFS
- ECMWF
- two variants of UK Met Office
- SPIRE ; and
- two variants of PredictWind (though personally I ignore them)
Also available is MetOffice Inshore Waters, which is different from the above 2 Met Office models

Learning to consider and compare muplitiple weather models and forecasts is an important skill for safe boating

 

[franksingleton]

Boring, I know, but I will repeat my usual mantra.
Forecast models are usually very similar for the first few days but diverge after that. There is really no answer to the OP. For periods beyond about 5 or 6 days, ECMWF should have the edge. Note, I say “should.” On fairly rare occasions in my experience, even the next couple of days can be different. Trust none. If the w Esther is unsettled, stay put.

Comparison between models is not very sensible. It is akin to taking a small random sample from a large ensemble. Better I find, is to compare outputs from one model on consecutive days and look for consistency. In other words look at days 7.8,9 today and, tomorrow, look at days 6, 7, 8 tomorrow and days 5.6.7 on the next day. If you are getting similar results ftom one day to the next, there is a good chance that the forecast is on the right lines. You will probably find that other models are showing similar results. The point is that you are looking at one model with nearly independent data inputs. Looking at several forecasts on the same day, there is a good chance that they will pick up the same model errors. If a model on successive days gives different results, it tells me that the situation is uncertain. Like it or not, there are times when the atmosphere is finely balanced.
Best to use forecasts 24 hours apart. There is some carry over between successive model analyses because the analysis is a 4 D fitting.
I hope all that is clear even if it does answer the OP directly.
This is a good example some years ago when forecasts, GFS, gave very similar results over several days.
https://weather.mailasail.com/w/uploads/Franks-Weather/ninedaystppdart.png

 

[BobsFolly]

Extended Range Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

Above link is Met Eireanns long term forecast. For a general forecast and approximate wind direction over the next 2 weeks I find it useful and reasonably accurate.
You wouldn't plan you passage tomorrow on it, but if I'm planning a trip a week out it's my starting point!

I mostly use wind guru for sailing on the east coast of Ireland but it uses the same models as the other apps too.

Bob

 

[franksingleton]

Extended Range Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

Above link is Met Eireanns long term forecast. For a general forecast and approximate wind direction over the next 2 weeks I find it useful and reasonably accurate.
You wouldn't plan you passage tomorrow on it, but if I'm planning a trip a week out it's my starting point!

I mostly use wind guru for sailing on the east coast of Ireland but it uses the same models as the other apps too.

Bob

I am pretty sure that they use ECMWF and UK.

 

[Supertramp]

I thought it worth feeding back on this weekend's weather - it all followed the predictions from early last week from Windy (ECMWF), Met Office and the general outlook at least for the Welsh side of the Irish Sea. When 2-3 days out, specific details about wind shifts and strength were accurate, as were strong wind warnings. I could hear a rash of Small Craft Warnings from Met Eireann on Saturday.

Nice to be able to say it was right for a change.

 

[DangerousPirate]

I thought it worth feeding back on this weekend's weather - it all followed the predictions from early last week from Windy (ECMWF), Met Office and the general outlook at least for the Welsh side of the Irish Sea. When 2-3 days out, specific details about wind shifts and strength were accurate, as were strong wind warnings. I could hear a rash of Small Craft Warnings from Met Eireann on Saturday.

Nice to be able to say it was right for a change.

View attachment 190625

Beautiful picture. I followed the weather, and it really only solidified to a proper forecast like 2-3 days ago. Guess if you're looking for a week in advance, just don't trust anything. It's not back to the future accurate at all yet. Wasn't that film set in 2015?

 

[Supertramp]

Beautiful picture. I followed the weather, and it really only solidified to a proper forecast like 2-3 days ago. Guess if you're looking for a week in advance, just don't trust anything. It's not back to the future accurate at all yet. Wasn't that film set in 2015?

View attachment 190634

Thanks. I like sense of what's going on overall (low and high pressure systems), how close the isobars look (wind) and after that I agree it's a bit of a lottery about the exact direction and force.

I sometimes find being in a sheltered marina (or Strangford) leaves me more nervous of setting off whereas stopping at anchor in a less than sheltered spot encourages setting off and taking things as they come. Psychology over weather.