Rabbie
Well-Known Member
Is a Navtex forecast any more/less reliable than a MCA/MET forecast ?
what would you do?
- Thread starter emnick
- Start date
Sans Bateau
Well-Known Member
So you are joking, Swagman is not, oh well. Sorry for not having a SOH, I thought it was a serious thread.
In reply to Swagman, OK, I hear what you say and yes we do share jobs. But IMO weather is such an important aspect of a passage plan, only the skipper should research it to be able to take a judgement on it. Least of all thats the way I run the boat but everyone to their own.
In reply to Swagman, OK, I hear what you say and yes we do share jobs. But IMO weather is such an important aspect of a passage plan, only the skipper should research it to be able to take a judgement on it. Least of all thats the way I run the boat but everyone to their own.
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Twister_Ken
Well-Known Member
I'm reminded of the guy who taught my YM theory evening class (ex MN skipper, and full time instructor for MN cadets). Was saying how much he enjoyed teaching us part timers because he met people with a range of skills. Once, he started showing a class how to draw an isobaric chart from the 'reports from coastal stations' info, when a student offered to do it for him. "I'm chief forecaster at the London Weather Centre," he said.
Robin
Well-Known Member
Sadly IMHO the Navtex forecasts are not worth considering as a primary piece of information. They are issued in such an abreviated form that the detail is lost and the timing can be way off. To give a forecast that covers Humber Thames Dover Wight Portland Plymouth Biscay with the same weather and the same timing is worthless and I'm afraid that is exactly what happens all too often, with both the Shipping Forecast and the cut down version on Navtex.
As an example we were in Cherbourg wanting to return to Poole 2nd Sept and had just such confusion but fortunately with WiFi internet were able to do a bit of addtional research, plus we had been monitoring forecasts regularly before then as we were making our way home from parts south. The last shipping forecast (the night before) we could expect to receive before our planned early departure suddenly threw us a wobbly with west 3 or 4 backing SW and 'increasing 5-7' whereas until then even a long motor had seemed a possibility! The forecast covered Thames Dover Wight Portland Plymouth and research via Meteo France (I'm a fan) who gave different forecasts for each of their 3 Channel areas (Antifer/Casquets/Ouessant) and it seemed there was a possiblity of F6 'with gusts' in Dover Straight according to them but elsewhere was 4-5 only. From memory I think both the UK inshore and French inshore said similar. as did other sources like XCWeather. We left and had a fast sail home in a westerly F4/5, just as Meteo France had said but yes there was more wind and gusts many miles away in Dover. OK so F5-7 on the beam or even slightly behind isn't really a problem for our boat but it could well have changed plans for smaller ones who would then have had N-NW F4-5 headwinds for several days afterwards, less wind but unhelpful direction.
As an example we were in Cherbourg wanting to return to Poole 2nd Sept and had just such confusion but fortunately with WiFi internet were able to do a bit of addtional research, plus we had been monitoring forecasts regularly before then as we were making our way home from parts south. The last shipping forecast (the night before) we could expect to receive before our planned early departure suddenly threw us a wobbly with west 3 or 4 backing SW and 'increasing 5-7' whereas until then even a long motor had seemed a possibility! The forecast covered Thames Dover Wight Portland Plymouth and research via Meteo France (I'm a fan) who gave different forecasts for each of their 3 Channel areas (Antifer/Casquets/Ouessant) and it seemed there was a possiblity of F6 'with gusts' in Dover Straight according to them but elsewhere was 4-5 only. From memory I think both the UK inshore and French inshore said similar. as did other sources like XCWeather. We left and had a fast sail home in a westerly F4/5, just as Meteo France had said but yes there was more wind and gusts many miles away in Dover. OK so F5-7 on the beam or even slightly behind isn't really a problem for our boat but it could well have changed plans for smaller ones who would then have had N-NW F4-5 headwinds for several days afterwards, less wind but unhelpful direction.
Sans Bateau
Well-Known Member
Yep, fully agree with you. But you wouldnt delegate a job as important as weather to someone unless they had first gained your confidence by proving their skill. Even then you would want them to discuss their analysis with you, for your final decision. Would you not agree?
eastcoastbernie
Well-Known Member
On days when I don't seem to be able to get a reliable forecast - the ones when all the ones you get disagree with one another or are very 'sketchy' I put plan B into action. If the weather is coming from the west (and it usually is) I use my mobile to phone a friend in the west and ask what weather they are having. Works a treat. If I'm concerned, I ask them to phone me if the weather turns really nasty. That way I have a couple of hours (or so) warning. I know this sounds like a joke, but it's so reliable I sometimes wonder why the Met Office don't do it to. Or perhaps they do? /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
HoratioHB
Well-Known Member
I feel that the shipping forecast has changed over the years and is often far too worst case centric - it seems to me this was as a result of the 'hurricanes' of the late 80s and the met office didn't want to be caught out again.
I use the Mk 1 eyeball, as many forecast as I can get and most importantly use my barometer, its especially useful if you can have the last few days trend. If you have been keeping and eye on it, any change for the worse in the last 12 hours - stay tied up.
I use the Mk 1 eyeball, as many forecast as I can get and most importantly use my barometer, its especially useful if you can have the last few days trend. If you have been keeping and eye on it, any change for the worse in the last 12 hours - stay tied up.
Robin
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
I feel that the shipping forecast has changed over the years and is often far too worst case centric - it seems to me this was as a result of the 'hurricanes' of the late 80s and the met office didn't want to be caught out again.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced of that but there are certainly differences between the way a forecast is presented whilst giving the same information between UK Met and Meteo France. Often on French VHF Inshore forecasts they will say something like (but in French natch) SW F4 occasionally 5 'with gusts' wheareas the UK version might say SW F4/5 occasionally 6 or SW4 locally 6. We just spent several weeks in France when the gusty winds were a definite feature for many days and knowing that the forecast NW4 headwind would be gusting up to 30kts at times was very useful, at least we could make an informed decision to go or stay. We opted to stay as time wasn't a problem and were glad we did, the gusts were later recorded at over 30kts which if you factored in VMG to windward and a bit of tide would have given up to 37kts over the deck at times. In various Capitaneries the (usually Meteo Consult) forecast also had a confidence rating added as a percentage and why any uncertainty was present if any. Once again very useful to know where any doubts existed and why, reasons given were the expected rate of rise in pressure as a high moved in, or if a stronger stream might result from squeezing between a high and a low.
WiFi access in many French harbours (or via hotspots) has been a great help to us this year. Netabord who run many of the WiFi setups in France are very generous too in allowing unlimited free access (no log-in, no charge) to Meteo France which I think deserves aplause. I doubt that the likes of Square Mile do that over here?
I feel that the shipping forecast has changed over the years and is often far too worst case centric - it seems to me this was as a result of the 'hurricanes' of the late 80s and the met office didn't want to be caught out again.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced of that but there are certainly differences between the way a forecast is presented whilst giving the same information between UK Met and Meteo France. Often on French VHF Inshore forecasts they will say something like (but in French natch) SW F4 occasionally 5 'with gusts' wheareas the UK version might say SW F4/5 occasionally 6 or SW4 locally 6. We just spent several weeks in France when the gusty winds were a definite feature for many days and knowing that the forecast NW4 headwind would be gusting up to 30kts at times was very useful, at least we could make an informed decision to go or stay. We opted to stay as time wasn't a problem and were glad we did, the gusts were later recorded at over 30kts which if you factored in VMG to windward and a bit of tide would have given up to 37kts over the deck at times. In various Capitaneries the (usually Meteo Consult) forecast also had a confidence rating added as a percentage and why any uncertainty was present if any. Once again very useful to know where any doubts existed and why, reasons given were the expected rate of rise in pressure as a high moved in, or if a stronger stream might result from squeezing between a high and a low.
WiFi access in many French harbours (or via hotspots) has been a great help to us this year. Netabord who run many of the WiFi setups in France are very generous too in allowing unlimited free access (no log-in, no charge) to Meteo France which I think deserves aplause. I doubt that the likes of Square Mile do that over here?
HoratioHB
Well-Known Member
Last Septemeber I spent a week in Plymouth and a very nasty low was forecast to come in by the end of the week. If I had believed the shipping forecast we would have battened down by Wednesday morning . As it was, we had a good F8 with gusts to F9 for about 12 hours on Thursday and then it blew through. The barograph however told the whole truth and you could almost plot its progress by purely knowing the centre pressure of the low.
Richard10002
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
The marina office forecast was 5-6, however the boat next to us gave us a forecast of 6-7 possibly 8 from his Navtex, I may just have wanted to believe the other predictions due to work commitments etc.
[/ QUOTE ]
And herein lies the reason for many "bad" decisions.
If you had so much of a hint of a 7 or 8, you should not have gone, (IMHO), unless you could find a way of discounting it with some certainty. You could have waited for the shipping forecast you got on your PDA .... if it had been good, you might have been a bit late for your work commitments, but as it was bad, you definitely wouldnt have gone and would have been even later.
On our current trip, we were due to leave Cartagena the next morning for Ibiza. A yacht which had come from the North tied up alongside us and, when they heard our plans, said that their forecast suggested a F8 from the North.
Quite happy to postbone our departure, I got on the web and searched long and hard for evidence of this windy weather, but couldnt find any, so our plan to leave remained in place. Searched again in the morning, no sign of the windy weather, so we left as planned, and mostly motored with no wind as has been par for the course on this trip.
Had I not had access to many forecasting sources, I would have accepted what they said - maybe would have gone to an internet cafe next day to see what was what.
Deadlines can be very dangerous. Often better to leave the boat, find another way home, and return at a later date - expensive, a ballsache... so be it. Lost count of the number of times we left boats in ireland, Isle of man, wherever, and ferried or flew back to manchester - not worth the risk of possibly life and death, or complete misery, or divorce etc....
In terms of restoring SWMBO faith, I think I would tell her that I had dropped a major bollock, and that I was truly sorry and embarrassed. I would explain what i/we should have done, and that this is what we would do if it happened again.
If education is appropriate, I would say that I, or we, would get some.
In terms of education, if you dont have on board web access, compile a list of lots of forecasting web sites, and be prepared to get to an internet cafe or whatever, to find out what is going on.... both in advance, and just before you leave.
Get Navtex if you havent got it - I dont like it and dont use mine, but I would if it was all I had.
Rely on the worst forecast you find, unless you are confident you can discount it.
Happens to us all, so dont beat yourself up over it, just remember the experience, learn from it, sort things out with SWMBO, and enjoy sailing.
I've heard a couple of things about weather:
"We dont leave if anything over F5 is predicted - I dont mind being caught in a 6 or 7 occasionally, if the forecast was a bit conservative"
"We dont do more than 1 overnight leg.... and if the stick isnt going to be straight up, we dont go"
The marina office forecast was 5-6, however the boat next to us gave us a forecast of 6-7 possibly 8 from his Navtex, I may just have wanted to believe the other predictions due to work commitments etc.
[/ QUOTE ]
And herein lies the reason for many "bad" decisions.
If you had so much of a hint of a 7 or 8, you should not have gone, (IMHO), unless you could find a way of discounting it with some certainty. You could have waited for the shipping forecast you got on your PDA .... if it had been good, you might have been a bit late for your work commitments, but as it was bad, you definitely wouldnt have gone and would have been even later.
On our current trip, we were due to leave Cartagena the next morning for Ibiza. A yacht which had come from the North tied up alongside us and, when they heard our plans, said that their forecast suggested a F8 from the North.
Quite happy to postbone our departure, I got on the web and searched long and hard for evidence of this windy weather, but couldnt find any, so our plan to leave remained in place. Searched again in the morning, no sign of the windy weather, so we left as planned, and mostly motored with no wind as has been par for the course on this trip.
Had I not had access to many forecasting sources, I would have accepted what they said - maybe would have gone to an internet cafe next day to see what was what.
Deadlines can be very dangerous. Often better to leave the boat, find another way home, and return at a later date - expensive, a ballsache... so be it. Lost count of the number of times we left boats in ireland, Isle of man, wherever, and ferried or flew back to manchester - not worth the risk of possibly life and death, or complete misery, or divorce etc....
In terms of restoring SWMBO faith, I think I would tell her that I had dropped a major bollock, and that I was truly sorry and embarrassed. I would explain what i/we should have done, and that this is what we would do if it happened again.
If education is appropriate, I would say that I, or we, would get some.
In terms of education, if you dont have on board web access, compile a list of lots of forecasting web sites, and be prepared to get to an internet cafe or whatever, to find out what is going on.... both in advance, and just before you leave.
Get Navtex if you havent got it - I dont like it and dont use mine, but I would if it was all I had.
Rely on the worst forecast you find, unless you are confident you can discount it.
Happens to us all, so dont beat yourself up over it, just remember the experience, learn from it, sort things out with SWMBO, and enjoy sailing.
I've heard a couple of things about weather:
"We dont leave if anything over F5 is predicted - I dont mind being caught in a 6 or 7 occasionally, if the forecast was a bit conservative"
"We dont do more than 1 overnight leg.... and if the stick isnt going to be straight up, we dont go"
Sybarite
Well-Known Member
The cardinal sin in sailing is to create a situation where people do not enjoy themselves because they are either frightened or sea-sick.
This situation often occurs because of time-tables which have to be respected. Give yourself time to choose the weather if you have a sensitive crew-member or you will find that you will be solo sailing more than you bargained for. It's supposed to be a leisure and pleasure activity.
Inevitably one may be caught out but this should very much be the exception.
John
This situation often occurs because of time-tables which have to be respected. Give yourself time to choose the weather if you have a sensitive crew-member or you will find that you will be solo sailing more than you bargained for. It's supposed to be a leisure and pleasure activity.
Inevitably one may be caught out but this should very much be the exception.
John
Sybarite
Well-Known Member
There is a convention on the forum that we do not criticise others' spelling or grammar.
John
John
Marmalade
Well-Known Member
We adopt the rule - add one to the forecast and then decide whether you'd go. We've often found that it blows one more than forecast so if the forecast is F5 from a certain direction with a certain tide running - we assume F6 and then decide whether to go.
Simon
Simon
emnick
Well-Known Member
WoW! Thanks for all the sound advice, We were actually leaving Cuxhaven, the trap was complete as we could not attempt a return in above a F5 in to the Elbe estuary, we sailed down the German coast all night, we lost a port hand nav light and our flag and pole. In the early hours just before dawn our furling line parted and the whole genoa was then out for a time, I managed to get up to it and pull in what was left by hand. All this is just for your info.
I will be contacting Simon and will get us both on a weather course, I think he is booked until January 08. Secondly I bought a Navtex Furuno NX300 at the boat show today. In hind sight I think that I had a mission to get our new boat home, this coupled with work commitments made us more accepting of what was already a poor outlook afterall 6-7 is not much fun (IMHO) all night. I 'wanted' to beleive the better forecast this is the lesson learned I think.
Thanks for all of the sound advice
I will be contacting Simon and will get us both on a weather course, I think he is booked until January 08. Secondly I bought a Navtex Furuno NX300 at the boat show today. In hind sight I think that I had a mission to get our new boat home, this coupled with work commitments made us more accepting of what was already a poor outlook afterall 6-7 is not much fun (IMHO) all night. I 'wanted' to beleive the better forecast this is the lesson learned I think.
Thanks for all of the sound advice
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