Weather - whom to believe

[rogerroger]

Wind forecasts for Sat 5 Oct as of Fri 4th - Solent / south coast

Met Office - northwest 2 or 3 increasing 3 or 4.

weatheronline.co.uk - west, becoming north west 2 to 3

onlineweather.com - WNW 2 to 3 becoming 1

BBC (Portsmouth) west 13 MPH


OK - so it's probably safe to assume the wind tomorrow will have some west in it - but how strong?

I bet there'll be no wind at all or a gale from the east.

Why is marine forecasting in the UK such a joke?

(and yes, I know they are "predictions", but come on, a man walked on the moon 35 yrs ago...)






/forums/images/icons/cool.gif Roger Holden /forums/images/icons/cool.gif
<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.first-magnitude.co.uk>First Magnitude</A>

 

[webcraft]

I would say these forecasts are all within a gnat's bollock of each other.

Let's face it, you know there will almost certainly be light Westerlies. If your plans can't cope with the difference between force 2 and force 4 and a directional variance of max. 45deg, then methinks you are perhaps a little rigid in your planning.

Just make sure you have the big genny handy and perhaps a little diesel in the tanks. I don't see what your problem is.

- Nick

BlueMoment.Com
<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.bluemoment.com/>http://www.bluemoment.com/</A>

 

[david_e]

I agree, this morning the beeb said it was gonna rain in Huddersfield tonight, and so far it hasn't. Now this wouldn't normally be a problem but, 'cause I've no boat I'm back on the golf. They have top-dressed the greens and we need some rain to wash it in otherwise it is like putting on a beach. No rain when I'm playing mind you!

Looking at the beeb f/cast 2nite I reckon light winds are the order of the day for you. I'm putting my 2 iron in the bag (windy club).

 

[jimi]

They\'re cheating you know

Remember when we were kids (Wednesday comes to mind) we used to copy each others homework but change it a wee bit to make it look as if it was our own....

Jim

 

[l'escargot]

Perm 1 out of 4

Wind W veering N backing W

Force 2 to 4

 

[Twister_Ken]

The meat orifice website for central southern England shows grey cloud but says some sunny spells but generally rather cloudy. Perhaps some showers in the east. Gentle northwesterlies. Maximum temperature 18 deg C (64 deg F)

 

[Bejasus]

Re: Man on the Moon.....

Ah, but did he really??????

"I am the master of my fate: I am the captain of my soul."..........I think????

 

[colvic]

How did they manage to predict a 36 hour window foer the D Day landings when to-day you just can't trust the next twelve hours.

Three years ago pulled off Beachy Head rocks by the lifeboat after a Metfax (kept and framed) which cost £1.50 told of 3 to 4's when it was blowing top of 7 with wave heights enough to hide us from view of the lifeboat and a nearby merchantman.

Compensation? No sir, this is not a precise science; why the charge then...nmnmnm. Breach of contract...No sir, read the small print.

However, just as bad in the Western Med..Spanish INM produces lovely graphics but the wind is ALWAYS 2 to 3.


Phil

 

[Pete_k]

As you are on the net the best place to look is at the Met office Weather and climate page which gives a three day pressure chart for the north Atlantic and from the scale of the isobars you can make your own mind up if it is going to be fit or not, personally I would have thought the forecast obtained was not bad (even given the differences) what has to be considered when obtaining info from different sources is just how large is the area they are covering for that forecast as they will invariably give the strongest wind expected for anywhere within that area which could in some cases be a hundred miles from the bit that interests you which would also account for a good variation of wind directions

 

[Twister_Ken]

What was actual Saturday Solent weather? nm

`

 

[Kathryn]

You think that you have problems with the weather forecasts in the Solent. They are excellent (I know I have sailed a huge anount in the Wight/Portland & Plymouth areas) when compared with the forecasts in Bahrain. Forcast N to NE 8 - 13 knots actual SE 5 knots and that is not uncommon at times. At times I wonder if it is worth listening to the forecast here. If we took what the Bahraini forecasters say as 'gospel' we would have lost some excellent days sailing! Don't complain enjoy what you have apart from the temperature!!

 

[oldharry]

Seems to me the forecasters were pretty well in agreement that day - more so than is quite often the case!

Why is the UK weather such a topic of conversation? Because it varies so much from day to day. An experienced forecaster can do little more than form an opinion of what is likely to happen in the next couple of days.

Beyond that the theory of random probability which governs out weather kicks in increasingly so that anything much further ahead, particularly in an unsettled spell, becomes more and more uncertain.

Forecasters are much better informed nowadays, which is why they will no longer make long range predictions - they know now that doing so is simply not possible. Todays forecasters would never have committed themselves to predicting the D Day slot in the way their predecessors did. They know better now!

Just as Michael Fish found in October 1987.......


The only thing that IS certain is that in a rapidly changing weather pattern such as we usually experience in this country, is that it is pretty well UNpredictable more tyan a day or two ahead.

Depressions shift, speed up, slow down, fill or deepen, and change direction in a completely random manner. There are such a huge number of variables which influence weather in any one locality, that it is impossible to quantify them with any certainty more than36 or 48 hours ahead.

Anfd as for forecasting rain, the variables that govern precipitation are so minute as to be virtually undectable.

In an age where we expect science to be precise, the weather has (as usual) got us beat, and is governed by so many random factors that it simply can not be predicted with any accuracy.

 

[l'escargot]

Fishbourne pm F3 wnw nm.

.

 

[pugwash]

Eisenhower didn\'t believe it?

Am I right in thinking the D-day landings were made against the advice of weather forecasters but it turned out all right enough for the job? Done that often enough myself, but without quite so much hanging on it.

 

[Guest]

leaving falmouth this week, heading for the longships, the coastguard gave out a strong wind warning for lyme regis to lands end of ne 6, and then went on to give an area forecast and an inshore waters forecast of west to north west 3 to 4.

amusingly , they continued to give out the strong winds warning valid until 1800 hours after 1800 hrs.

assume they had simply got the wrong day for the strong winds warning. actual conditions turned out to be sw 2 to flat calm

mind you, this was better than a previous occasion when they gave out se2 and i actually had 29 knots north east as I rounded lands end.



<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by howard_easton on 06/10/2002 20:34 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[billmacfarlane]

Re: What was actual Saturday Solent weather? nm

West with a hint of North F2_F4. Excellent afternoons' sailing.

 

[marcost]

Untill now from France to Madeira, we are very pleased with the windpredictions on a german website www.wetteronline.com. Under charts, you find wind and you can choose the sea area. It is in english.

regards,

Marc,

 

[l'escargot]

It's also an English site as www.weatheronline.co.uk - you can get daily e mails of wind strengths for your area.

 

[johndf]

Re: What was actual Saturday Solent weather? nm

Very likely all four of these forecasts actually occurred somewhere or other in the Solent, which must have an awful lot of variation in wind strength and direction in light winds like these. as several others have said, these four forecasts are all pretty much in agreement.

 

[Trevor_swfyc]

Is it not possible that West was a rounding up of WNW as what percentage of listeners would understand WNW ? more or less than 50% I wonder. It is also a fact that a group of listeners will if asked what the forcast was will come up with different answers even straight after immediatly hearing it. The forcast I like best is reduced visibility in fog patches (No really).
What a wind up!
Bye the way today was nice so I hauled the yacht out.
All the best.
Trevor