simonjk
Well-known member
Hi all,
One of the members of the forum suggested I post these messages (as sent out on my free weekend forecast list). Hopeit's of interest to some of you,
best wishes,
Simon
Hi,
Missed posting last week. It was so hectic here with several boats we are forecasting for stuck in the Gulf of Mexico. had to route them around the hurricanes, so you can imagine what that was like!
Anyway, things are thankfully, starting to return to something near normal again. I've been watching the global weather patterns carefully though and I think we may well see a change in the weather pattern sometime next week. Don't think it will be prolonged, but we might just see a few days of fine weather.
Interesting thing isthat again those water temperatures are below normal in the central Atlantic (see https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif)That area of cold water to the weat of the British Isles must be limiting convection somewhat and so higher pressure will have the tendency to be forming here (I believe anyway).
The warm water off the east coast of Canada and newfoundland will be aiding developments and the combination of this and the colder water to the east may be aiding the strong jet strem which is through the central Atlantic at the moment.
In these musings I've been trying to show how the 500mb charts are so useful in forecasting terms, especially longer trends.IN the states they use them all the time and they are part of a forecasters vocabulary when talking to the public. I think that's how it should be here, don't you?
So, take a look at the excelent panel charts from Weather online (see http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/c....gif&VAR=z500&LOOP=-1&BASE=00&TERMIN=20092004). The closer together the contours, the stronger the winds. See how in the central parts of the North Atlantic the jet stream (the area of strongest winds) is screaming through from west to east. have a look at https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/public_images/MEUR3040JW006.GIF if you need more proof!
Now, note how in the far west of the Atlantic a ridge builds in the contours, especially as we get through the midnight Saturday. This is building heights and piling air into the central Atlantic. The effect is to increase the amount of air above one particular point and hence increase air pressure.
Now, eventually the ridge shifts through the UK and Ireland (see http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/c....gif&VAR=z500&LOOP=-1&BASE=00&TERMIN=20092004) and is there for a few days, before a deep trough to the west moves it out of the way.
These charts are believeable and I think can be relied on. It's also comforting to note our 30 day forecast backed these ideas in the forecasts issued to private clients a few weeks ago. This is normally a good case for trusting the models, so on this occasion I'd be pretty happy with the thoughts of an unsettled week, mainly in the north, this week, followed by beter weather later this weekend and early next week, then a return to more mixed conditions in a couple of weeks.
We'll see what transpires...hope this has been interesting for you. If you've any questions, or something you don't understand, let me know.
Best wishes,
Simon
Simon Keeling
www.weaherschool.co.uk
www.weatherweb.net
<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net
One of the members of the forum suggested I post these messages (as sent out on my free weekend forecast list). Hopeit's of interest to some of you,
best wishes,
Simon
Hi,
Missed posting last week. It was so hectic here with several boats we are forecasting for stuck in the Gulf of Mexico. had to route them around the hurricanes, so you can imagine what that was like!
Anyway, things are thankfully, starting to return to something near normal again. I've been watching the global weather patterns carefully though and I think we may well see a change in the weather pattern sometime next week. Don't think it will be prolonged, but we might just see a few days of fine weather.
Interesting thing isthat again those water temperatures are below normal in the central Atlantic (see https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif)That area of cold water to the weat of the British Isles must be limiting convection somewhat and so higher pressure will have the tendency to be forming here (I believe anyway).
The warm water off the east coast of Canada and newfoundland will be aiding developments and the combination of this and the colder water to the east may be aiding the strong jet strem which is through the central Atlantic at the moment.
In these musings I've been trying to show how the 500mb charts are so useful in forecasting terms, especially longer trends.IN the states they use them all the time and they are part of a forecasters vocabulary when talking to the public. I think that's how it should be here, don't you?
So, take a look at the excelent panel charts from Weather online (see http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/c....gif&VAR=z500&LOOP=-1&BASE=00&TERMIN=20092004). The closer together the contours, the stronger the winds. See how in the central parts of the North Atlantic the jet stream (the area of strongest winds) is screaming through from west to east. have a look at https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/public_images/MEUR3040JW006.GIF if you need more proof!
Now, note how in the far west of the Atlantic a ridge builds in the contours, especially as we get through the midnight Saturday. This is building heights and piling air into the central Atlantic. The effect is to increase the amount of air above one particular point and hence increase air pressure.
Now, eventually the ridge shifts through the UK and Ireland (see http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/c....gif&VAR=z500&LOOP=-1&BASE=00&TERMIN=20092004) and is there for a few days, before a deep trough to the west moves it out of the way.
These charts are believeable and I think can be relied on. It's also comforting to note our 30 day forecast backed these ideas in the forecasts issued to private clients a few weeks ago. This is normally a good case for trusting the models, so on this occasion I'd be pretty happy with the thoughts of an unsettled week, mainly in the north, this week, followed by beter weather later this weekend and early next week, then a return to more mixed conditions in a couple of weeks.
We'll see what transpires...hope this has been interesting for you. If you've any questions, or something you don't understand, let me know.
Best wishes,
Simon
Simon Keeling
www.weaherschool.co.uk
www.weatherweb.net
<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net
