Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008 been

simonjk

simonjk

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How cold have the first 10-days of December been?

It seems to have been much colder this year than for a good many years and people have made comments to me that the seasons seem to be back in order this year.

So, I got my best weather anorak on and decided to compare the first 10-days of December 2008 to each of the first 10-days of December since 1999 (yes, I am that sad!). I picked a random station (Sennybridge in mid-south Wales) for which daily data was available over the past 10-years. Now, you must remember this datat is onl;y for one station, and things may be different country wide, but it is an interesting exercise to perform.

And here is the result. Our perceptions are correct. The first 10-days of December 2008 have been significantly colder than any of the first 10-days of December I the past 10-years. Mean temperatures have been just 1.2C so far this year. The nearest coldest in terms of mean temperature (the average of maximum and minimum) was 2003 with 3.4C, but this is still a full 2.2C above where we are now.

So, if you think it has been cold this year, then you are absolutely right. Not only has it been cold, it’s been VERY cold when compared to the last 10-years, and certainly compared to the temperatures we have got used to for the start of December.

The full details are below:


Sennybridge (Wales) Mean Temperature Data for 1st to 10th December for the years 1999 to 2008

YEAR MEAN MAX MEAN MIN MEAN TEMP

2008 5.0 -2.5 1.2
2007 9.9 4.2 6.8
2006 7.9 3.4 5.2
2005 6.6 2.6 4.5
2004 7.7 2.6 5.1
2003 5.7 0.8 3.4
2002 5.7 2.8 3.9
2001 6.9 1.4 4.2
2000 9.3 3.7 6.7
1999 7.4 2.7 5.2


Hope that is useful (and interesting),
Simon
 
now then lol could you predict the average summer temps and likely wind for summer 09 from that weather model, please :-)

here in quadring fen, the north wind started early in november and icey cold !!!

cheers
Mick
 
Oh my god, there is an ice age coming, quick dig out your tennis rackets and tie on some moon boots /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
 
I am a computer engineer and for 20 odd years was mobile here in Scotland. I always reckoned you would get 1 week of snow or sleet around mid-late November to 1st week in December then it would be damp till the end of January when it would be likely to snow/sleet in February and maybe March. Over the last 12 years It hasn't been like that and we have had very little snow in the Glasgow area. I'm not complaining though. Last winter was a bit more like it had been but this year, so far we have had no snow but a lot of very cold days. It certainly seems to have changed.
 
Well that is interesting because here on the west coast of Sweden (Falkenberg to Gothenberg) the temperature has been very much warmer than normal. In November, for instance, I and my neighbours were still cutting our lawns. Apple trees in gardens were so heavy with fruit until a few weeks ago that a few trees have fallen over. I would say that the minimum temps have been around zero at night with day temps around plus four.

Okay, in Sweden, temps are dependant on wind direction.

Up to now, December has been wet, foggy, and quite mild. Normally, at this time of year I usually wear warm boots, but this year they are still in storage and I am wearing sandals on short trips outside. Not on big trips, just down the road to the post box, but it is still surprising.
 
I know it's been cold. I have had to scrape ice off my windscreen more times this year already that the last 2 years put together and its only mid December. I'm on the west of Scotland. I was down at the boat last Saturday about 2pm it was a beautiful sunny day but there was still ice on the decks.
Minus 3 outside just now!
 
So mid-November was a good time to start work on my extension and begin by decommissioning the central heating for 8 weeks? /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif
 
Actually thats a good question. There is a general perception that colder winters are followed by an early spring and better summer. Is there any statistical basis for this or is it another urban myth?
 
Re: Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008

[ QUOTE ]
Is ten years statistically significant?

[/ QUOTE ]That's the whole problem with the Global Warming argument. Significance is being read into a minute amount of data, a few hundred years in 100's of millions.
 
Re: Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008

I was thinking about this as well. Memories of chipping out a couple of inches of ice from the pond to let the fish breathe, and scraping off ice from the inside of the windows. Would be interesting to know how this year compares with say the 70's as the last few years the winters have been pretty warm.

Also would be interesting to see data from the same point in the sun cycle.

Not sure what is deemed as 'significant' - depends really what is hoping to be achieved/presented.
 
Re: Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008

I would never trust anything reported in the press about weather. My old meteorology lecturer used to use examples from newspapers to show how wrong they were. And very entertaining they were.

My opinion, for what it's worth, is that the weather patterns we're experiencing now are generally what's desired in the summer - high pressures, clear skies from northerly winds. Except when they take place in winter it leads to bloomin cold days and nights. the weather patterns we had in the summer, sw winds/storms, low pressures, mild temperatures cloud and rain, are what we have been experiencing in the winter. Does this means the 'seasons' are shifting? Or has the jet stream finally shifted it's position to direct the lows further north, rather than over us?

As I understand it, the NAO index is a measure of the situation now, it can't be used to predict anything in the future as our understanding of it's driving mechanisms is so limited.

But mainly, always remember there is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing!
 
Re: Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008

[ QUOTE ]
But mainly, always remember there is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing!

[/ QUOTE ] Or sometimes inappropriate sail plan . . .

- W
 
Re: Weather Musing...How cold have the first 10-days of December 2008

assuming that the mean temp fits a normal distribution curve (and an even bigger assumption that I can remember my stats) then the std deviation of the results given is 1.6 so this years figures are a 1 in 70 year event. in other words you can conclude that it could be random or it could not be /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
 
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