Weather Forecasts???

[chas]

It might be my imagination but I don't think I can remember a year in which the met office has got its short and medium term forecasting so wrong. Forecast for last Saturday - weterly 2 - 3. Actual - no wind. Sunday forecast - Easterly 4 - 5. Actual NE not more than 10 kts. Sunday - forcast Easterly 3-4. Lucky if it was 2! This is the fourth time this year I have planned an itinery based on their forecasts and the prediction has been totally wrong and I have eneded up motoring! Is it just me or do others find the same

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[oldharry]

I disagree, Forecasting is not and never can be a precise science, and the difference between NE and E may be a local effect over a smaller area than the forecaster is having to deal with. Similarly with wind speeds. Calculating wind speed is done by averaging the pressure gradient over the forecast area. This has only to change very slightly after the forecast has bee drafted to make a significant variation in the speed of the wind. When there are large flabby areas of High and Low Pressure around as we have experienced extensively this year, accurately forecasting the speed and direction becomes even more uncertain.

Get a new piece of seaweed, have another look at the way the birds are behaving, check whether your cows are standing or lying down, and which way they are heading, etc etc.... your own observations will give you as a clear an indication as anything the Met Offices' super-computers will give - if you know what to look for!

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[simonjk]

Chas,

Difficult one for us weather guys this weekend. I am not given to defending my competitors, but have to admit that we at WCS over did the winds this weekend as well.

An early post event analysis suggests the following.

The ridge of high pressure extending from the north, with anticyclonic curvature, was expected to bring fresh winds through the Channel (see my earlier posting). With a devloping low in mid-Atlantic the gradient was expected to be "squeezed" enhancing the wind speeds.

All models favoured this development and with the bank Holiday weekend approaching, lots of people on the water, the decision was taken here (WCS) to go for fresh winds.

Given the same set of circumstances we would be making the same forecast again.
So the best thing to say about this weekends forecast is that it was one that got away. Forecasts are exactly that, forecasts, and so enable you to plan effectively (most of the time).

As suggested on the previous post there is no replacement for making your own forecasts based on the data to hand. However, on this occasion you probably wouldn't have picked up on things early enough to amend your plans.

Hope that helps?

Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[Cornishman]

Dunno about wind forecasts, but I am writing from the Tamar Valley where this morning's forecast was for showers and its been chucking it down for three hours. Some shower!

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[BrendanS]

That would be 'localised' showers. Move 20' away and you'll see the sunshine

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[chas]

Thanks for this - I think my grumble was with how often this has happened to me this year - it just seems more often than in previous years!

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