Weather Forecasts

[Sailfree]

When planning to go sailing where are the best internet forecasts, Synopsis charts etc. 1 say planning for next few days. 2. On Monday looking forward(hopefully) to sailing the next weekend. 3. Taking a 9 to 14 day holiday yes it looks fine for next few days for say Brittany or channel Islands but will there be a problem getting back. I appreciate that the longer the forecast period the more unreliably but I would like to at least start with a plan. I also note that Marine call no longer works from my mobile phone when abroad, something to do with the priumium line charge, so I have been phoning UK for someone to precis their 5 day forecast. There must be a better way.

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[iangrant]

http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/marine/gmdss.htm

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[snowleopard]

try <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.maalla.co.uk/uk-weather/syn.htm>this</A>

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[vyv_cox]

I have seen statistics relating to the accuracy of forecasting a number of days ahead. I don't remember the intermediate ones but 24 hour forecasts were about 75% accurate and 5 day were less than 5% accurate. So don't base any plans on anything more than about 3 days and beyond 5 days it's probably more realistic to toss a coin.

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[jeanette]

www.greatweather.co.uk

<hr width=100% size=1>Jeanette

 

[Spacewaist]

Re: Weather

Just been to Sardinia for a long weekend. Local italian maritime forecasts proved extremely inaccurate. Broadcast in Italian and English they forecast consistently F8-9 with 55kt gusts in thunderstorms.

Having watched the weather from our berth for 24 hours, our experience was tracking the www.Weatheronline.co.uk three day forecast for Alghero, on the basis of which we put to sea. We had three days of excellent sailing in sunny F5-6 (although never far from shelter) to return to port to find no-one else had left their berth (many being comfortably seated in nearby cafe in anticipation of the spectacle of us berthing stern-to in 30kt gusts on the beam).

Tis ironic that a UK forecast for italian waters is more accurate than a local one.

Normally when cruising, we use weather fax information available in most harbours - knowledge to the synoptic situation giving you a reasonable guess for the next 48 hours and a call to Metoffice "speak to a forecaster" for any passage over about 36-48 hours depending on the stablity of the weather pattern. (Its about £18 a call so not cheap but worth it if you are sailing on a schedule).

However, on the basis of this weekend's experience I'd use the three day forecast from www.weatheronline.co.uk again.



<hr width=100% size=1>A pontification from the Panjandrum of orotund bloviation AD2002

 

[kingfisher]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

In the top middle menu: Bracknel (UK Met Office), Hirlam (KNMI), Meteo France, Sembach (US Air Force)

In the top left menu: MRF medrium range forcast (+10 days), ECMWF medium range forecast (+6 days)

Weather for thursday 17 of april, 1200 UTC, Belgian coast: 12-15°C, dry, cloudy with occasional clearing, F2-3, W-NW

<hr width=100% size=1>Group of people on the pontoon: skipper is the one with the toolbox.
http://sirocco31.tripod.com

 

[Dyflin]

For the western side of the Atlantic (and the Carribean) we always use http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marsh.shtml
NWS radiofax charts for the NW Atlantic broadcast by the U.S. Coast Guard.

~Dyflin

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[Magic_Sailor]

Amongst otheres, I use the Met Office leisure section for the inshore waters - easy to find and for 3 day pressure forecast animation.

Also available is of course shipping forecast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/animation.html

Hope helpful.

Magic

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://hometown.aol.co.uk/geoffwestgarth/myhomepage/travelwriting.html>Click for website!</A>

 

[Sailorbuoy]

Some useful hints, Radio forecast skeds, Weather fax, Rtty and internet sites.
I like ther one that gives the next 5 days Forecast Chart on one page.

http://www.walterreed.co.uk

Still can't do a hyperlink!

<hr width=100% size=1>Sailorbuoy

 

[Evadne]

Try http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/otherfax.shtml for synoptic maps. Also Weatheronline for (I find) fairly accurate forecasts, tho' not specifically boaty. I used to Halo, an Icelandic site that was very good but seemed to close down some time last year.

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[Aeolus_IV]

Others have mentioned 'weatheronline', but I've found the European MRF at <A target="_blank" HREF=http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/500p_eur.html>Unisys</A> can provide a good overall view of weather for a number of days (forecast extends for 10 days). Others have already mentioned the relative accuracy of forecase this far into the future, but I've found this one useful.

Jeff.

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[aod]

Excellent!

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[Guest]

Intersting post. I used to be pre-occupied with weather forecasts, and indeed I had at least ten weather sites I would visit (incl. the Met) and I would also buy certain newspapers which had an above average marine forecast. All that is over.

I now check the ECMWF (Europoean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) and get "the big picture". Theirs are the only five day forecasts worth having. They are invariably inaccurate after three days. Any forecast is still only accurate to a maximum of three days. The Inshore waters forecast is a big picture in itself, and a forecast of F5 means you can experience breif interludes of F7, and so on.

I believe that it is important to acknowledge that any time you put to sea the weather might increase to beyond your own comfort zone. My personal comfort zone is "F7 Rough" or "F8 Slight" ...

So what to do? Gather the big picture daily for five days before you depart. Check the Inshore Waters for the same period. Watch the trends.

Then go.

If the weather changes, you will understand why. Maybe "that low" didn't appear? Logically it will have tracked more north, perhaps over Scotland. Even without the forecasters you will realise then what impact that will have on wind directions.

Watch out for periods of high presssure, expecially in the Spring. They can be unpredictable.

So my position is either you stay tied to the dock waiting for the F4 / F5 from the right direction with the right sea state, or you prepare your boat for a roll-over and all sensible safety gear (think ORC) and go out and have some fun. The boats will invariably take more than the skipper, so the danger is really only from the skipper cocking it up.

(actually, if you know your boat is well prepared, a real howling gale can be made into a fun day of sailing)

<hr width=100% size=1>Humperdinck

Email: HJ@Seacracker.org
Website: www.seacracker.org

 

[kimhollamby]

ybw weather

Can be found at:

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.ybw.com/weather>http://www.ybw.com/weather</A>

Includes free syoptics out to 72 hours and location weather around the UK mainland coast, plus 24-hour historic trend at those points.

<hr width=100% size=1>

 

[simonjk]

As a professional forecaster, perhaps I can give a little guidance here.

I see mention of the MRF/WCMWF models etc. I find, on an operational level, that the best charts to use in the medium to long term are the ensembles. These are avialable for the MRF and FNMOC models, and are on the web. See www.westwind.ch

The ensemble is basically the same model run several times from a slightly different starting position. These are then "averaged" and displayed as an ensemble chart. They give a great indication as to confidence levels in forecast, i.e. if to 10 day GFS ensemble differs vastly from the 10 day GFS, then confidence can be taken as low.

I'm also trialing a new version of my forecasts at http://www.weatherweb.net/aviations/marine/wxwebxtram.htm These are free at the moment, so feel free to take a look.

Remeber above all when you are forecasting yourself to remember that by there very nature pure model and GRIB output are okay, but are not the holy grail they appear to be. That's why people still pay professional forecasters to interperet charts. There are occasions when I come on shift, look at the charts and immediately throw them away, prefering to rely on hand analysis, upper air analysis and experience in certain situations.

You can also talk to our forecasters, for either £1.50 per minute when you are in the UK (09061 991 189) or £10 per call by credit card (+44 8700 738 100) when abroad.

Just some thoughts.

Cheers,
Simon

Simon Keeling
MD WCS Marine Weather

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net & www.wcsmarine.com