weather forecast

[tyce]

hi
i have read many a post about forecasts and sailing endeavours, and cant help but feel some people get a bit carried away with the the strength of forecasts, my qualification to say this is i have been round the world for many years in the merch and really expierienced the different forces of weather, and cant help but feel that alot of the supposedley force 6, 7 and 8 sailing adventures are probably more like 4, 5 and 5 and a bit, i do not by any means think all people are like this, just seems to be when ever you hear a disaster story or even a average run of the mill story all skippers have sailed in a force 8, my worry is would any of these actually know what to do if a meagre 7 or exciting eight hit them, i must admit when i am in my own boat i must admit a 5 feels more like a 7. any comments!!!!

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[jimi]

Actually think many people overestimate F6/7 but underestimate F8/9 unless they have wind instruments to give the readings. However sea state is often much more to do with fetch, tide, seabed etc rather than merely windstrength. Eg I've sailed my Laser in F7 on an inland lake but would hesitate to take the yacht through the Portland Race in a F4

<hr width=100% size=1>I Have The Body Of A God... Buddha<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by jimi on 18/04/2004 20:26 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[Talbot]

I suppose you are correct about the past, but these days most boats have the ability to display true wind speed and direction. I know that the worst (sailing) conditions I experienced showed gusts at 55 kts and the seas looked pretty big to me!
Nevertheless our perception of the conditions will always appear to be dependant on the size of ship/boat, it's speed, and whether you are trying to go against the wind or some other course.

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[sailorman]

try this weather site
http://www.theyr.net/cg/cny/I586f64/F=js*NA

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[Neraida]

Fair point. Take yesterday for example, western solent, sou-west 5 to 7 perhaps gale 8 later was forecast by the met office.

We left Lymington too late (overslept, missed forcast) We have no wind instruments, and as we were leaving the river, I looked out into the solent, couldnt see any reefs in, felt the wind in my full head of hair and thought... "4 to a 5, good, it's not arrived yet!" and decided to have a Full main and no2 jib for the run. After about half an hour, out into the deep water of the central solent it was evident that with the cresting seas, an amount of spray plus the extra hight due to wind over a fairly hefty tide that we were in a "proper 6".

When we got home, a quick look on the internet said that for the time we were there, wind was SW 25knots gusting 30, so, in retrospect I am rather glad that I didnt have wind 'struments as I probably would have panicked at having near as dammit "everything up" in a high 6, gusting 7. Also, listening to the racing gang in the club when we got back who were talking about "a full gale"... errr, we were in the same bit of water as them!

Still, we did managed some excellent 13knot surfs, and didn't break anything!

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[LadyInBed]

Re: wind instrument

I have a wind instrument, it comes out the same colour as adrenaline /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

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[Sybarite]

Yes. One must remember that wind strengths relate to average wind speeds and not the gusts.

John

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[TonyD]

Wind instruments are responsible for much of the overstating of wind strength. People see the wind speed hit 35 knots and believe its a gale, rather than just a gust.

Location is another factor. In the warmth of the Med, strong winds often do not feel as threatening especially if there is a short fetch and flat seas. I always assumed, as the wind is warmer and the air less dense, there is less force for a given wind speed. Does anyone know if this is true?

<hr width=100% size=1><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by TonyD on 18/04/2004 22:32 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[plombier]

When we got home, a quick look on the internet said that for the time we were there, wind was SW 25knots gusting 30

Just as a matter of interest, which site did you use for the archival data?

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[JOHNOO]

Yes it is!

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[longjohnsilver]

Try <A target="_blank" HREF=http://xcweather.co.uk>http://xcweather.co.uk</A> There is a 24 hour archive.

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[cgull]

I really dont think that a reasonably competent sailor and crew could find much to fear in the resonably sheltered waters of the Solent, whatever the forecast. Its a different matter out in the Channel.

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[Neraida]

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.xcweather.co.uk/>UK Wind Map</A>
<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/met_charts/?table=envdata_Lymington_met>Lymington Weather Station</A>

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[Neraida]

I have to disagree with you I am afraid. Steeply shelving and generally shallow waters cause steep seas, coupled with the strong tides it can all get abit much. Having a sou-wester funneling up the western solent with a 3 knot tide against you makes you wish you were in open channel.

Despite being a "young-un" I do have plenty of open sea experience, including western channel, biscay and the atlantic many many many times as a "professional" and a yachtsperson. I find the longer seas much more comfortable, its only when you get near to shore and tidal races where it gets really nasty.... ask jimi and his dodgers!

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[qsiv]

Neither Lymington Met nor ChiMet seem toi show steady state at more than 20 knots through the body of the day. Wind over tide would have added a few knots to the AWS, and it would have undoubtedly felt stronger..

Sounds like the racers rather overestimated things - perhaps they were talking about windspeed over the deck(gust 28 knots TWS 6 knots VMG Tide) - which could quite easily have been close to gale force in the early morning - or if they were in an acceleration zone on the mainland shore or near Hurst.

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[Neraida]

I don't want to get into a row about this, but please don't poo poo me. Lym Met on the link below clearly states that the mean wind speed between 1200hrs and 1700hrs was in fact over 20 knots.

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[qsiv]

I wasnt aiming at you! It was more a case of trying to see how the racers could conceivably considered the breeze you experienced as a gale - maybe we are back to the 'old fashioned' terminology of the 'yachtsmans gale' starting at about F6 - or maybe it's more related to ego and testosterone - did they tell you about the size of the fish that got away!

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[Neraida]

Oh, ok. Hurrumph..

It was very early, and I do tend to be quite grumpy before my 5th coffee...

Sorry! /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

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[ParaHandy]

... you could well be right .. going down the western solent on saturday it felt like 28-30kn

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[dom]

Hi,

Last year went from Portsmouth to Yarmouth in a F8/9 with the wind against a spring tide. The wind was on the nose so we motored. Waves were not that big but some of the slamming was the worst I have ever experienced. It went right through you each time the boat fell off a wave into a trough. Interestingly later when the tide changed the sea was quite incredibly different - almost docile

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