Vendee Globe and Alex Thomson / Hugo Boss

Looking at that awkward weather pattern, and assuming Alex can get / or is up to speed structurally, I can see a possible scenario where AT gets to COGH a little behind Apivia, but 2nd and with Sam in 3rd.
AT is to weather of Sam, and will have the inside track round the back of the high.

Wishful thinking, with a touch of logic.
Other scenarios are available!!!
 
I agree according to the windy models they look set to make up some ground over the next 3-4 days - but then again - all models are wrong.?
 
RichardS said:
Sam Davies looks to be making good routing decisions and should be moving up towards the front over the next couple of days.

Richard
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I've always thought Sam was in with a shout for a podium position. She got so close to it when she finished 4th. She has the experience, she has a decent boat which has been retrofitted with foils, and seems pretty quick. Why not ?
 
NormanB said:
I agree according to the windy models they look set to make up some ground over the next 3-4 days - but then again - all models are wrong.?
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There was an interesting observation on the Sea Wolves Channel (YouTube) a few weeks ago which claimed the forecast accuracy has been affected by the lack of meteorological data from aircraft due to limited flights. I'm a bit sceptical but I'll throw that out there for you to ponder.
 
cherod said:
think i will put a call throo to Le Cam and tell him to head for 25 S x 15 W , eta 3 days (y) .
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guess he didnt get my text ,, he could be beating ( his optimum course ) straight to Cape Town now , miles ahead of everyone ,,, ☹
that northerly route might still do it for him (y)
 
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Little Dorrit said:
There was an interesting observation on the Sea Wolves Channel (YouTube) a few weeks ago which claimed the forecast accuracy has been affected by the lack of meteorological data from aircraft due to limited flights. I'm a bit sceptical but I'll throw that out there for you to ponder.
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i have been watching some of that channel , ( v good ) , seems to me his predictions have been pretty good .
 
Is anyone using the Windy plugin to the desktop app?

Quote from Twitter:

"You can now watch the Vendee Globe regatta on @windyforecast, thanks to our user Kevin Saliou, who wrote it as an external plugin.

Open the plugin page on desktop, windy.com/plugins, and install the "Regadata" plugin."

:cool:
 
cherod said:
guess he didnt get my text ,, he could be beating ( his optimum course ) straight to Cape Town now , miles ahead of everyone ,,, ☹
that northerly route might still do it for him (y)
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Beating is not his optimal course! His boat is still a downwind machine. It's just a bit better upwind than his rivals and not quite as quick downwind. There's no way that any IMOCA, of any era, would route upwind from where they are. His course is going to be much quicker hooking into the Westerlies that are coming.
Don't confuse better upwind than his competitors with better upwind than downwind.
 
matt1 said:
Not sure we can come to that conclusion yet, or indeed ever?

What if Alex set them an unachievable displacement target, what if they had expressed reservations over the integrity of the centre cockpit location etc etc. We don't know what parameters ATR gave the designer, or whether the builder pushed back on some of the things he was asked to do.

Notwithstanding his foil breakage in the last race, the previous HB was pretty reliable and robust. It's interesting that they were already reinforcing this boat before the race (I think he said they had to add 70kg of reinforcement?)

Also it may be relevant that in talking about the repair he has mentioned Gurit, the Designers and his own shore team but hasn't mentioned the builder, which is perhaps a bit odd.

Anyway, the tragedy is that with Linkeout and Charal out it would have left him in a very strong position to win this one. Not impossible he could still win it but the odds are against him
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Is it just me?

If they had been set an unrealistic target the designer should have stated 'it will break' they are the professionals. The builder should build what the designer states -- he may question with experience.

I personally appreciate Alex's attitude - never give in, the race is not lost until it is won. I am not interrogating weather or tactics, looking at SOG and positions with fingers crossed - Alex deserves some luck (Good) The worst (Southern Ocean) is yet to come.

But then I sail a medium to Heavy Displacement Cruiser.
 
flaming said:
Beating is not his optimal course! His boat is still a downwind machine. It's just a bit better upwind than his rivals and not quite as quick downwind. There's no way that any IMOCA, of any era, would route upwind from where they are. His course is going to be much quicker hooking into the Westerlies that are coming.
Don't confuse better upwind than his competitors with better upwind than downwind.
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Not from where they are , from where they were when i posted
 
flaming said:
Serving a 4 hour penalty for breaking the propeller seal I believe.
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I say. Is the chap British !

Anyway, the pressure is off Alex now and he can start enjoying himself. The hype, the boat, the budget put so much pressure and expectancy on him and the team.

Will probably be more interesting for us too as he starts picking up places and who knows, he's not out of it yet.
He just needs a bit of luck that previously has been missing. As within , so without.
 
Buck Turgidson said:
Sailing Simulator: Home
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Airscrew said:
Robbie, I developed similar looking tracks, and at various times/positions for each of the lead competitors. There are a handful of softwares out there. I use qtVlm on the desktopPC at home, and on an iPad on the boat. Free and accurate enough for most. Easy to download gribs, tides, waves, yacht polars, and to run multiple option routings.

I have to be honest and say that the routings I developed for Alex/Apivia from a few days back, is pretty much the track that Apivia has taken since then.
Ofcourse it is qtVlm that is smart, not me...
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Thanks both, now playing with the Zezo stuff. I think qtVlm is similar to the OpenCPN plugin, remember playing with it a few years ago. I think I've realised my basic problem was user error, hadnt realised that you had to keep renewing the auto sail change function :eek: That made my passage through the doldrums a different shape to the routings I'd created. Across the equator now, yay :)
 
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