Vendee Globe 2024, Brits

[John_Silver]

Looks like the front two will get the jump next week and be one system ahead going into the Pacific. The other leaders will get blocked by the ridge of high pressure. Two races from then on. One for first and another for third. With the massive caveat that non of them have a serious breakage

Race mantra: "In the Vendee Globe, anything can happen."
My two penn'orth: 'and it usually does.'
We still have (arguably) the most challenging stretch, of the race, to come: from Oz to the Falklands, via Cape Horn.
The total fleet may be spread across 5,000 miles. But there's close racing within it, for just about all skippers. So they are likely to be pushing, their boats and themselves, (even) harder than they may dare to.

 

[John_Silver]

Louis Burton safely into Cape Town.

 

[John_Silver]

Seb Simon's starboard foil has sheared, 'at the elbow.' Racing on. But compromised on port gybe.......

Not sure if that's the inner or outer elbow. My Franglais gets me 'elbow.....deepest part of foil......supporting the tip.' So, possibly, breakage is at the outer elbow. Leaving some usable foil area..... Although Seb also talks of greater heeling (by 20 degrees) due to the loss of lift. Others may fare better, with translation!

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Seb Simon's starboard foil has sheared, 'at the elbow.' Racing on. But compromised on port gybe.......

Not sure if that's the inner or outer elbow. My Franglais gets me 'elbow.....deepest part of foil......supporting the tip.' So, possibly, breakage is at the outer elbow. Leaving some usable foil area..... Although Seb also talks of greater heeling (by 20 degrees) due to the loss of lift. Others may fare better, with translation!

View attachment 186508

Like AT 2 races ago. He spent most of the southern ocean on his ear.

 

[John_Silver]

Like AT 2 races ago. He spent most of the southern ocean on his ear.

Well, Seb seems to be maintaining a hot pace: A touch under 20kts over past 24 hours. On the rhumb line, whilst Charlie is having to gybe in lighter airs. Closing up, to keep their duel alive. Do you reckon they'll both catch the new low, to pull off a breakaway.....?

Warm welcome, to Cape Town, for Louis Burton. With shots of his hull repairs and a glimpse of the foredeck / J2, late on:

Meanwhile (14.00 sched), further back, north seems to be working for the wily John Le Cam. With his David Raison daggerboarder. Watch out Pip et al (gap reduced to 700 miles)!

EDIT: Screenshot, of foredeck / J2 repairs underway, whilst Louis talks to Andi, on today's 'Live:'

 

[John_Silver]

Sounds like Sam G's primary pilot has let go again (auto generate sous titres available):

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Well, Seb seems to be maintaining a hot pace: A touch under 20kts over past 24 hours. On the rhumb line, whilst Charlie is having to gybe in lighter airs. Closing up, to keep their duel alive. Do you reckon they'll both catch the new low, to pull off a breakaway.....?

Warm welcome, to Cape Town, for Louis Burton. With shots of his hull repairs and a glimpse of the foredeck / J2, late on:

Meanwhile (14.00 sched), further back, north seems to be working for the wily John Le Cam. With his David Raison daggerboarder. Watch out Pip et al (gap reduced to 700 miles)!

EDIT: Screenshot, of foredeck / J2 repairs underway, whilst Louis talks to Andi, on today's 'Live:'

View attachment 186552

All the models look similar now and Charlie should make it but all the others get cut off by the ridge.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

All the models look similar now and Charlie should make it but all the others get cut off by the ridge.
View attachment 186557

It's not done and dusted though as it looks. a bit confused in the south after the low moves off and the northern boats may get better winds at the end of the week. If San Gs group go south they could get stuck but it looks safer to the north.

 

[John_Silver]

Cracked bulkhead, for Pip. Not terminal. Biding her time, for a lull, to get laminating. Sounding calm and determined here (Video should open @ 2. 39).....

Silver lining......Pip's closed up to within 13nm of Romain.

 

[TLouth7]

All the models look similar now and Charlie should make it but all the others get cut off by the ridge.

Well you called it! Charlie might get a bit trapped between the high pressure and the ice exclusion zone, but as of now he is effectively a weather system ahead of the rest!

Pip doesn't look to have lost too much distance over the last 24 hours, but we will have to wait to hear whether she has managed to get an effective repair done.

 

[dunedin]

It is incredible watching the videos they make crashing through the Southern Ocean at 30 knots - tucked inside their protected cockpits in the dry. As Pip said, no way she could go on deck without slowing down dramatically.
Wasn’t long ago that people raced there (at much slower speeds) on open decks.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Well you called it! Charlie might get a bit trapped between the high pressure and the ice exclusion zone, but as of now he is effectively a weather system ahead of the rest!

Pip doesn't look to have lost too much distance over the last 24 hours, but we will have to wait to hear whether she has managed to get an effective repair done.

Yes auto routes look a bit odd on Sam Davies site with Ruyant doing a massive detour north that I’m sure he won’t do. I’ll have another stab at predictions this evening but for now I think Charlie will be on his own.

Pip is really impressive. Massive respect. I just can’t relate to her emotional communication style, but that’s me not her. She’s smashing it in a boat that isn’t as good as she obviously is.

Sam G needs a top boat next time.

 

[John_Silver]

SAM D’s overnight electrical gremlins look to be persisting. From the 14.00 sched:



EDIT: On film here....

 

[TLouth7]

Pip is really impressive. ... She’s smashing it in a boat that isn’t as good as she obviously is.

Hers was the winning boat in 2016 (as Banque Populaire VIII)! And the two boats immediately ahead of her are both the same vintage: the boat Boris Hermann came 5th in last time, and the ex-Hugo Boss that came second in 2016 in an epic duel between Armel le Cleac'h and Alex Thompson. The yacht immediately behind her is a similar vintage and sister ship to hers; she's effectively 3rd in a race of 5 2016 era foilers.

 

[flaming]

Hers was the winning boat in 2016 (as Banque Populaire VIII)! And the two boats immediately ahead of her are both the same vintage: the boat Boris Hermann came 5th in last time, and the ex-Hugo Boss that came second in 2016 in an epic duel between Armel le Cleac'h and Alex Thompson. The yacht immediately behind her is a similar vintage and sister ship to hers; she's effectively 3rd in a race of 5 2016 era foilers.

There's a little bit more to it than that, and the boats are all heavily modified since the 2016 race. Mostly in terms of the foil development, and also minimising the nosedives that come with big foils and little rocker. some were more suited to having much bigger foils put into them, and then the foil budget is another matter...

You're absolutely right though that this is the group she's most interested in beating.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

There was a really good weather analysis on the vendee English YouTube today. I can't really add anything to it except despite what the routing predictions say, I don't think Seb or Yoann will hang on to Charlie. If one of them does my money is on Yoann based on his 24hr progress and the cut of his jib on the live today. He looks like he's on a mission and loving it.
There will definitely be some compression behind and there is another big low midweek for the chasing pack. Pips group may catch the back end of the Boris group with Ben Dutreux getting the best of the winds.