LittleSister
Well-Known Member
On the day it might well be different. But why are they calculating it different in advance. I accept that issues might arise with Osea esp as it is up a river & a degree of adjustment have to be applied, but they should NOT apply to a major port like Dover
Still does not explain why 4 different sets of tables cannot agree on a prediction for Dover though, does it.
Because the factors that cause tide heights, times and flows are hugely complex.
We can only approximate (albeit rather impressively) what the tide will be doing at a particular point in time and geography by developing models which more or less match the historical record of what tides actually did in past years. Different models will be better or worse at doing that at particular different times and places. Then once you've devised a model, you have to decide how much computing power are you going to apply to the model to produce the result.
Imagine you want to devise your own model of the tides. First you need a historical record that you are going to try to get your model to match. Even for somewhere like Dover, where there will be a long historical record of actual results, you first have to make adjustments to take account of any changes in the calendar, clocks, datums, exact location of measurements, changes the coastline or harbour walls, etc.. Now you have to somehow compensate for the the wildly different weather conditions that would have influenced each and every one of those measurements. To do that you will have to make important assumptions that will affect the final predictions. And that's before you've even started to try to develop a model!
The problem is not the variation in tidal predictions, which are perfectly good enough for sailing purposes, but in your unrealistic expectations of them.
