Still think red's demise makes no difference?

Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

I agree. We currently run a twin diesel sub 30 foot boat and were looking to trade up to 36foot shaft drive flybridge - this would mean doubling our capital investment(at least), a large increase in berthing etc and obviously doubling our fuel costs. With red gone this fuel cost would be fourfold. With our usage of the boat this would be hard to justify we would only gain a bit more room and a bit more comfort. We would probably have the same amount of fun etc so we have decided to keep our current boat. With this in mind surely the sub 30 foot 4 berth market is the one that will suffer less, with people in there bigger boats worried about fuel costs wishing they could run around in smaller boats and use the boats like they used to?

Isn't that why belguim has big flybridge boats in there marinas and france has small fishing type boats in there's?
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

1.Ari - As regards the joke about being a women - it was not me - I simply joined in. It was a bit of light banter please lighten up.

2. Even 10% giving up boating will have a very serious effect on a struggling market.

3. There are many many boats been on sale for a very long time and not sold - I beleive sales have really slowed down. You will see a lot more on the market as this year rolls on.

4. I am going on what actions people have already taken around me - two friends with two boats on the market.

5. IMHO the real reaction will not come until the price hits - many boaters are still in waiting mode.

6. Power boaters are the people that spend the money in the market place - one power boats probably, at a guess, spends the same as 2 or 3 sailing boats.

7. I live in the real world with normal people - not in a rarefied atmosphere. I observe and make judgements about that world - I have been successful in doing that.

8. I know of many first time buyers and everyone of them understood the running costs before they bought the boat. In fact many only considered diesel because of the lower fuel costs. One person bought petrol but changed it over to diesel after just one trip.

In my world people react to higher prices by reducing demand in a multitude of ways. In Ar'is world they just absorb it.

In my world people have a good idea of the running costs before the buy their first boat. in Ari's world they do not even ask about the cost of fuel.

In my world I am told by the two owners in the last week why they have put their boats on the market - in Ari's world he just ignores such facts and claims only 10% would do so on the forum - a figure that is still very serious.

So i can only conclude that Ari and I live in different worlds - mine is on earth - I am not sure where Ari's is /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

I think you are right - the larger boats will suffer far more.

However the very fact that you have changed to keeping your boat means a loss in trade to the marine industry and a ecline in the demand for 36 foot boats. our new boat would have meant more expenditure on far more than the purchase of the boat.

It also means lower berth income, lower brokerage income, lower chandler income etc. So you are an example of somepne staying with their boat and reducing demand and spending in the market.

That is my point - reduced demand as a result of much higher marginal running costs.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

H,mm must agree,as a serial visitor to all the brokerage sites have yet to notice any softening in prices of boats that people actually want to buy.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

The price being asked is not important - its the price they are sold for that is the only thing that matters.

In the housing market when there is a slump deamd slumps but there are may overpriced houses on the market with the owners refusing to sell at lower prices - the result is less trading.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

Why are we assumming car pump prices for post red diesel ?
When the wife did the accounts for a local marina there diesel, and petrol as well, came at a preimium price as they could not take a tanker full. Garages normally take a artic tanker load, how many marine outlets can ?
So is white going to be at a premium at marine pumps ? the only thing fixed is the amount of duty, not the retail price.

Brian
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

Halycon
I do not think anyone is assuming the same as road price. It is widely accepted that for the very reasons you have stated the cost will exceed road price.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

[ QUOTE ]
The price being asked is not important - its the price they are sold for that is the only thing that matters.



[/ QUOTE ]


But you have failed to explain the massive hole in your theory

The evidence is there to be seen that is against your theory


There are not twice as many boats for sale now as there were 1,2 or 3 years ago.
If your theory was to be believed and all the boats advertised were overpriced and not selling there should be evidence of loads of boats for sale compared with 3 years ago.

I used my Princess 360 as an example, boats and outboards dont list ba single one for sale. This is proof all the 360's arent for sale !

I recognise the fact that it could be a fluke but at least have a look for yourself at the number of boats listed in MBM, then look at an old issue from 3 years ago

same number for sale
similar prices

I know of two for sale at the same prices as 5 years ago .

I understand your theory but you should start to accept it might not turn out to be 100% accurate.
Look more at the evidence in front of you

The last time diesel doubled boat prices didnt collapse and they havent done this time, you seam hell bent on trying to start a collapse rather than admit you are wrong.
/forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

[ QUOTE ]
If your theory was to be believed and all the boats advertised were overpriced and not selling there should be evidence of loads of boats for sale compared with 3 years ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold on - most boaters do not even know about the latest intention stated by government. The whole market does not have knowledge - that takes time.
In fact the intent was only just published in MBM this last week.

A lot will wait for the final outcome and then react.

So - nope no holes blown in my points there.

[ QUOTE ]
recognise the fact that it could be a fluke but at least have a look for yourself at the number of boats listed in MBM, then look at an old issue from 3 years ago

same number for sale
similar prices

[/ QUOTE ]


I accept that and would add its very often the same boats for sale. What matters is what prices these boats sell at. How many people are actively purchasing boat around you now? I know nobody, I only know some selling to get out.

[ QUOTE ]
I know of two for sale at the same prices as 5 years ago .


[/ QUOTE ]
But those prices will not be obtained - the world is changing and the market will adjust.

[ QUOTE ]
I understand your theory but you should start to accept it might not turn out to be 100% accurate.
Look more at the evidence in front of you

[/ QUOTE ]

I am looking at what everyone around me is both saying and doing - two friends in the last week selling to get out of boating. That is not theory.

[ QUOTE ]
The last time diesel doubled boat prices didnt collapse and they have not done this time, you seam hell bent on trying to start a collapse rather than admit you are wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

Im my marina it has taken 7 years to double diesel prices - it was not overnight. Secondly even that hike has had a significant effect on boaters around me. I would also argue that the number of boats selling over the last few years has been slowish.

You see the same boats on sale at the same price year after year as the owners fail to match the price dictated by the demand.

To argue that this fuel hike will make no difference to the market is absurd. Totally absurd.

To quote figures like the doubling of fuel costs that have already taken place without effect without mentioning it took 7 years is plain wishful thinking.

I respect your views as sincere but then evidence is there to see if you wish to see it.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

Here we go again.
For what it is worth, I don't think anyone knows what difference the loss of red will make.
On the one hand big diesels will be a lot more expensive to use, which will have an adverse affect on prices.
On the other hand there are a lot of big bonus payouts in the city, and if some of this is spent on boats then it may well offset any changes. It may even result in more demand for boats.(I know of one such bod intending to enter the boat market, who doesn't even know what red diesel is).
What I think we can all agree on however, is that fuel duty in this country is disgusting, & (here i go again) to increase duty on certain green fuels before the have even got going is sick, to say the least!

So ner! /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I do like him.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

[ QUOTE ]
I know of many first time buyers and everyone of them understood the running costs before they bought the boat.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

Hold on - most boaters do not even know about the latest intention stated by government. The whole market does not have knowledge - that takes time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so according to you, anyone with even a passing interest in buying a boat knows exactly what fuel costs, yet people who actually own and run boats have no idea about any of this?

Come on Gludy, you can do better than that! /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Oh and it's not just fuel that has doubled in the last few years, marina berths in many places have gone up by thousands too. And yet where I am on the south coast marinas have gone from being fairly full to actually having waiting lists! Despite thousands of pounds extra a year to run a boat.

Yet this time it's magically going to be different.

Your theories are interesting, but they're quite simply not backed up by what is happening, and has happened in the past, in the real world.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

I am happy to agree to disagree , I share all your concerns and Rubberduck summarises very well, lets just hope we are all right and there is a detrimental boat value reduction but only a slight to moderate rather than the GF11 you predict !

I think your quoted friends as examples might not be the norm as you will frightened off all your friends with your negative views.

As for people buying I thought the mainstream companies all reported good sales at the boatshow and again I point out there are not loads of boats for sale, if you really think there are any boaters not aware of the red situation then you must also recognise the fact that they will probably not notice when they hand their card across at the pump next year.

Oh and the guy at the side of me is looking to upgrade to a Princess 440.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

[ QUOTE ]
Right, so according to you, anyone with even a passing interest in buying a boat knows exactly what fuel costs, yet people who actually own and run boats have no idea about any of this?

[/ QUOTE ]

There you go again having to totally distort what i have written and taken it to an extreme so as to make a point. Nowhere have i said or even mentioned those with a passing interest. I have clearly written that those buying a boat know before they buy it. That is a huge difference. You distort my points and just fail to answer other points as some sort of incredible method of arguing.

So Ari- why do you have to distort so much? Are your points so weak.

Just how many people in the city who receive huge bonuses buy boats? I am sure they exist but what percentage of the boat buying public are they? Very, very small.

In the world you paint you act as if the boat market has so many such city buyers that they prop up the boating world. Out of the nearly 1000 boats in my club/marina I know of none who even work in the city. I am sure on South Coast marinas there are such people but they are not a high percentage.

Even if you in Ari's world was right - what a world? A world populated by rich city guys who know nothing about boats propping up the entire boat market!!!!

As regards people who actually own and run boats - I have always claimed they do know the costs - I did not think that was even in dispute???? I think what you may mean is that you know with your vast exoerie3nce and can even judge the market better because of that vast experience but people like me and my friends -we do not have a clue. Is that what you mean?


I do agree with the previous post that states nobody knows what will happen - i don't and you don't. We are making judgements or guesses. That is why there is a discussion.

[ QUOTE ]
Oh and it's not just fuel that has doubled in the last few years, marina berths in many places have gone up by thousands too. And yet where I am on the south coast marinas have gone from being fairly full to actually having waiting lists! Despite thousands of pounds extra a year to run a boat.

Yet this time it's magically going to be different.

Your theories are interesting, but they're quite simply not backed up by what is happening, and has happened in the past, in the real world.

[/ QUOTE ]

There you are again total distortion and an inability to understand the baiscs of market forces and what drives the wordl.

You are syaing a 'few years' in my case in our marine - 7 years but you ignore that.

In my case the marina charges over 7 years have gone up about 40%.

I understand your great need to distort the facts to prop up your absurd views but I have no intention of letting you off with that.

You do not understand the nature of the marginal decision. You do not understand how even people who can afford to do things may well consider them bad value and not do things. You fail to understand how many struggle to keep their boats and faced with more than a doubling in fuel price overnight will have no choice but to pack it in.

So Ari - please get your facts right - stop distorting what I write and open your eyes.
/forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

DAKA
I hope I am wrong - we agree on that.

I do not predict total disaster - I predict a serious change in the UK boating industry as I have outlines many times.

[ QUOTE ]
I think your quoted friends as examples might not be the norm as you will frightened off all your friends with your negative views.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whilst I can see that is a reasonable guess - its not true.

The friend with the sub 30 footer I have not talked to for over a year. He apprached me the other day - asked the latest and decided there and then to get out. It has gone on the market.

The other friend who I do see on a regular basis was already struggling with the higher fuel costs - he simply cannot afford to spend that money on boating. He has been boating most of his adult life and has placed the boat up for sale. I would like Ari to tell these people it will make no difference.

[ QUOTE ]
As for people buying I thought the mainstream companies all reported good sales at the boatshow and again I point out there are not loads of boats for sale, if you really think there are any boaters not aware of the red situation then you must also recognise the fact that they will probably not notice when they hand their card across at the pump next year.


[/ QUOTE ]


Give the market some time to react - it is all to happen as yet. The boat companies always report good sales. I am told by folks in the business that sales are down 25% - putting the hype aside I think the industry is struggling in many areas.

As regards Fairline, Sunseeker etc- with most boat sales going to the Med who are not effected by this - then in that area they may even see growth. I am only talking about the UK business - every comment I make or have made on this subject is about the UK side of things.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

I wish I was rich, then I too would be less concerened about fuel costs. I've remarked about my version of the real world beforhand, the interested will remember, the dismissive can search the threads.

As it is there is the real prospect that this year might have to be the last one where entering the Tideway results in anywhere more salty than Limehouse. If fuel costs, in round terms, £1 per litre and Rochester return uses 1/4-1/3 of a tank then that's £50 to spend 10 hours each way going to Rochester and I'm not convinced that will be popular as a weekend activity. As I've stated before, four tanks of fuel would take me, say 550 miles or so, but cost over £1K. For that sort of money, as a summer holiday, there are alternatives that may be more attractive than a boat, likewise for weekending, and I do see myself as a pretty committed boater.

Regardless of perceived value there are a lot of boaters from whom the 20% increase suggested by some above just is not affordable, or just 20%, because they do not keep a boat in a costly marina. Think of all those boats on swinging moorings, piles, creeks and weir streams on rivers. They are not shunting out £3500pa on marina fees, possibly under half that. They are not all twin engine planing craft with the latest IPS etc, many will be 50HP shaft driven boats. Yet still facing a doubling of fuel costs. If you can afford it, fine. If you can't, there is little alternative but to cut your losses, or, as is human nature, to try and ride out the storm.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

[ QUOTE ]


So Ari- why do you have to distort so much? Are your points so weak.

Just how many people in the city who receive huge bonuses buy boats? I am sure they exist but what percentage of the boat buying public are they? Very, very small.

In the world you paint you act as if the boat market has so many such city buyers that they prop up the boating world. Out of the nearly 1000 boats in my club/marina I know of none who even work in the city. I am sure on South Coast marinas there are such people but they are not a high percentage.

Even if you in Ari's world was right - what a world? A world populated by rich city guys who know nothing about boats propping up the entire boat market!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Gludy, I've never ever mentioned city bonus chaps. You talk about me distorting the facts? /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]


You do not understand the nature of the marginal decision. You do not understand how even people who can afford to do things may well consider them bad value and not do things. You fail to understand how many struggle to keep their boats and faced with more than a doubling in fuel price overnight will have no choice but to pack it in.



[/ QUOTE ]

The point is thare have already been "marginal" running costy increases, big ones. But marinas are fuller than ever before. That isn't opinion, that is fact.
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

Ar
[ QUOTE ]
The point is thare have already been "marginal" running costy increases, big ones. But marinas are fuller than ever before. That isn't opinion, that is fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Never before has there been a 100% increase overnight.

2. It has taken 7 years for that on fuel.

3. Marina charges have not even gone up that much.

So I dispute that this has happened before - it simply has not - fact!!!

Straight question:-
Do you accept that the overnight 100% is different to the 7 year 100%?
 
Re: Still think red\'s demise makes no difference?

Rubberduck - you beat me with the use of that new icon!!
Anyway you are not allowed to hide - you have to prevent any attempt to commit Ari -Kari .... OK?
 
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