Sailor's warning

[25931]

At seven this morning I was admiring a red sky and smiled at the idea of this being a sign of bad weather - the forecast being 25º and light breeze.
Does the old couplet Red sky at night sailor's delight etc. apply to your part of the world ?

 

[AntarcticPilot]

At seven this morning I was admiring a red sky and smiled at the idea of this being a sign of bad weather - the forecast being 25º and light breeze.
Does the old couplet Red sky at night sailor's delight etc. apply to your part of the world ?

Many years ago, in a magazine intended for consumption by semi-professional meteorologists (e.g. ship observers and so on; I think it was called WEATHER OBSERVER or something similar - I am sure that professional mariners on ships that carry out on-passage observations will know what I mean), I saw an article that tested various folk sayings about the weather, including this one. They compared observations against recorded weather, for the UK, where most of the folk sayings tested originated. Very few of the folk saying stood up at all, being incorrect as often as they were correct. I think that some stood up PROVIDED you took into account other factors.

It is worth bearing in mind that even in the notoriously variable weather of the UK, a prediction that tomorrow will be the same as today has a better than 70% chance of being right! And in many parts of the world, the probability approaches 100%.

 

[Hydrozoan]

+1 for the point about autocorrelation (which is happily not manifesting itself chez nous today!) John Augustine and Lisa Smith of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration write here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/about/redsky/ with the common explanation, pointing out that it works in the westerlies from about 30-60 latitude, in both hemispheres - but that from 0-30 in both hemispheres, the easterly trade winds reverse the night/morning rules of thumb we use.

 

[ianfr]

Back in the day we always used to say

"Red sky at night sailor take fright"
"Red sky at morning sailor take warning"
"It will always get worse!"

Sometimes in jest......

Regards

Ian

 

[savageseadog]

I saw a salmon pink sky one winters morning, in the mountains which was followed a few hours latter by a hideous blizzard.

 

[michael_w]

A pale washed out sunset is usually a warning of winds to come. I think it's because all the dust that causes the red bit is blown away.

The bit of doggerel I've always liked is the one for an approaching depression:

"Mackerel skies and mare's tales, make lofty ships carry low sails"

 

[colingr]

A pale washed out sunset is usually a warning of winds to come. I think it's because all the dust that causes the red bit is blown away.

The bit of doggerel I've always liked is the one for an approaching depression:

"Mackerel skies and mare's tales, make lofty ships carry low sails"

I thought that one was

Mackerel skies and mare's tails
"they" have been seeding the skies with chem trails

 

[webber63]

At seven this morning I was admiring a red sky and smiled at the idea of this being a sign of bad weather - the forecast being 25º and light breeze.
Does the old couplet Red sky at night sailor's delight etc. apply to your part of the world ?

Here, in Italy, we say: "Rosso di sera bel tempo si spera" (red in the evening, hopefully good weather)
I don't know if it actually works...

 

[jac]

Isn't it Red sky at night , sheep are alight??

 

[PilotWolf]

I seem to recall many years ago that the met office said they had got over 40% of forecasts exactly right. It was suggested that if they had used the alternative they would have got 60% right...

W.

 

[ukmctc]

At seven this morning I was admiring a red sky and smiled at the idea of this being a sign of bad weather - the forecast being 25º and light breeze.
Does the old couplet Red sky at night sailor's delight etc. apply to your part of the world ?

its a farming saying, now't to do with sailors...

 

[grafozz]

I was taught this version :

red sky at night , shepherds delight ,

red sky in the morning , shepherds warning ,

minced lamb and potato , shepherds pie ..........

 

[OceanSprint]

At seven this morning I was admiring a red sky and smiled at the idea of this being a sign of bad weather - the forecast being 25º and light breeze.
Does the old couplet Red sky at night sailor's delight etc. apply to your part of the world ?

It applies to UK for following reason:

Weather systems (ie low pressure cyclone) generally have a "spacing"of about 1000 km and move from west to east.

If when sun sets to west it shines through an atmosphere with no cloud (ie no weather system) the bet is that one has just passed over you and the clear weather is coming your way, from west to east.

If when sun rises it shines through clear sky with no clouds, or low pressure system, then it is a fair be that one is to your west heading your way.

 

[Deleted member 36384]

It applies to UK for following reason:

Weather systems (ie low pressure cyclone) generally have a "spacing"of about 1000 km and move from west to east.

If when sun sets to west it shines through an atmosphere with no cloud (ie no weather system) the bet is that one has just passed over you and the clear weather is coming your way, from west to east.

If when sun rises it shines through clear sky with no clouds, or low pressure system, then it is a fair be that one is to your west heading your way.

Don't be reasonable please, at least the Italians hedged their bets.

 

[ffiill]

Red sky at night shepherds delight,
Red sky in morning-shepherds warning.

 

[phanakapan]

Do sailors, dutchmen or cats get a pair of trousers made out of patches of blue sky?

It was always cats in our house- ie 'it won't rain , there's enough blue sky to make a cat a pair of trousers'